How Do You Rate the Chances of a Military Confrontation Between the US and Iran?

Do you really believe that I have not read what "globalsecurity" has to say?

If you had read what they were saying before, and how they change their own story, some of which remains unedited in the "general sections", you will see they don't have a clue. I have followed what these people been saying for a long time. I have Cordesman's book from 1992 about the Iranian mlitary, and know that along with Pipes and that crowd, they have been proven wrong repeatedly. When it comes to Iran, they haven't been able to get one thing right before.

In 1992, Cordesman was sure that Iran would not be able to fly any of its US made planes anymore. As late as only a few years ago, he was not taking any reports regarding indigineous developments seriously. Until recently, even after Iran showed it could fly these planes, he stuck to his positions by modifying them slightly and saying those planes could fly at best limited number of sorties. He was proven WRONG on all these areas.

 

They can provide a general idea of what they have in mind and have done so. Of course, they are not going to give out their operational secrets, but since they have been the most "hawkish" on Iran not "compromising too much", to build public support for their position, they have had to talk a bit about how they calculate things.

 

I have seen their numbers too. I also have noticed them changing (upward) their numbers and projections. Those numbers look better today than they did before. But they still contain the same inherent flaws in analysis and the same faulty premises.

 

I can probably spend a lot of time, do a lot of google searches, and come up with English sources that contain some outlines of what they have said.

However, the best sources for what they have said were in Persian. The keyhan newspaper was the popular media for their positions, while a more specialized journal that reflected the views of the revolutionary guards was actually shut down by the judiciary for compromising national security.

In reality, Keyhan was told to tone down its rhetoric, and that journal was closed, in part because these folks were severly criticizing the Iran-EU negotiations (which were indireclty endorsed by Khamenie despite trying to keep his distance), their criticisms (although couched in terms of criticizing Iran's negotiating team) were criticizing indirectly Khamenie as well. Through what they were saying and writing, you could get an outline of what they have in mind on many different issues, including the one we are discussing here.

I will see what I can find through the magic of google!

 

As I am doing my google search, I came across this "propaganda" interview that nonetheless is borne out of the kind of more serious analysis from the revolutionary guards.

The article below, on the other hand, before the election of Ahmadinejad, discusses the rise of the revolutoinary guards in Iranian politics and gives a sense about their hawkish stance on these issues.

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=10&categ_id=5&article_id=15993

 

That is the problem. You are playing this make belief scenario, without context, to prove a point that no one can dispute. Of course, the US is infinitely more powerful than Iran militarily, economically, technologically, etc.

I am talking about how a war would unfold in the context of things as they are, not in a fictionalized environment.

Ultimately, what I want is to see the US stop acting like a bully towards Iran, and see if it cannot get more trying a different route altogether? Of course, I would have really preferred that a bit earlier, before Iran's recent election, but even now if the US does this wisely (without looking like it is caving in to make the hardliners in Iran become more obstinate) I think it can work out a good deal for both sides.

Basically, the US has to coordinate it with the EU so that it appears like the EU is caving in, not the US, with the deal to be negotiated one that is fair to the legitimate concerns of all sides.

 

You guys are so clueless...Ahmadinjeahd would have no problems admitting he was one of the captors, if it was true. Indeed, even if as president he would not want to highlight it, he would have milked it politically when he was a candidate and before then when he was an aspiring politician trying to build his bona fides as a hardliner.

The photo analysis shows it wasn't him in that picture. But the "swift boat" tactics gave the issue enough public attention that if you ask an average "Joe" in America the question next year, he will say: "That damn I-rainian president was one of the terrorist captors who hold our hostages..."

BTW, where are the folks who were 100% "sure" the photo was him? Idiots.

 

Apart from some Chinese aircraft which I don't know much about, Iran's airforce relies principally on the following aircraft for various air superiority, interceptor, fighter/bomber, and ground support roles:

Mig29s


F-14s


F-4s


Su-25s

 

Kami, Thanks for the pic of the J-10.

If you think that anyone expects or believes that Iran would win a war against the US, if the latter is committed to "pull out all the stops", then you missed the whole arguments so far. That is a given, but irreleveant because the US has to pursue its policies within a given political, international, and economic context.

In that context, the longer it takes for the US to establish air superiority and air supremacy, the more time Iran has to exploit its comparative advantages. To use them to defeat US ground forces in Iraq, to destroy US bases and assets in the region, to sink US naval warships, to keep closed the Strait of Hormuz. To those ends, Iran will use its large missile force, its ground forces, its artillery, its rockets, and its own special forces.

It is one thing for the president of the US to tell them American people we are going to attack "X" country, implicitly making them think that the costs will be no more than at worse a couple of thousand casualties and a few hundred billion dollars. It is another thing to tell them lets start a war with a country, even though it will: cost us potentially tens of thousands of casaulties, destroy our economy and the world economy, and although it would leave the region in flames. I don't think even average "Joe" is that stupid to go for that invitation, when nobody is threatening America. Except for these con men who have taken over the reigns of power and influence here.

Let Iran worry about Israel and its "best pilots". Don't worry yourself with such things. Indeed, since Israel is already so powerful, lets just make sure they don't have the US fighting their wars. Lets stop having Israel manipulate US foreign policy. Before you start throwing labels and nonsense, why is AIPAC even lobbying the US with regard to Iran on behalf of Israel? Why is Israel setting the tone of how the "world" should respond to Iran? Why is a group the US calls a terrorists organization for good reason, the MKO, is being adopted now by the Israelis? And why is that every fantastic lie they print in their organs and media, suddenly being repeated and making its way into the mainstream media here?

Israel versus Iran will not be a fair fight. But if Israel was ever stupid enough to wage it unless it had made sure Iran was first strapped to the chair, let them try it. We will then see if it takes more take more than 3 days to bring the Israelis to their knees?

 

One thing Ben doesn't like to mention is that all of Israel's defense industry products include American licensed components and parts, Therefore, besides strategic considerations, the sale of Israeli equipment to China with sensitive US licensed products and products derived from US licensed systems also makes American defense industry kind of upset.

Even the Airbus has US licensed component parts, which is why the Europeans for instance can not sell it to Iran without US permission.

Anyways, here are some of the planes, UAVs, and models showcased in Iran's 2005 Persian Gulf Air Show, formerly known as the Kish Air Show. Iran's products do not come with any US licensing strings attached

Although as is cusomary, Iran's airforce and revolutionary guards did not participate in the air show, military industries affiliated with the Ministry of Defense did show some of their work.

Let me start with a few of the UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles), although the most interesting items showcased were a "flying boat", more Iran 140 planes, a new helicopter, and various models of the Shafagh fighter.

 

Here are pics of various "Shafagh" trainer and fighter models shown at the Air Show.

While the prototype of the Shafagh trainer has already been built, these trainers ultimately are part of a larger project, originally known as "Integral", to produce a top of the line 5th generation stealthy fighter known as the M-AFT. Iran plans to have those planes in service by 2010.

Model of Iran's M-ATF Fighter Shown at the Air Show


Model of different variety of Shafagh trainers expected to enter service in 2007



The actual prototype of the Shafagh trainer, which is scheduled to undergo test flights later this year (older pic, not from the airshow)