Group F Advancement Scenarios

Discussion in 'GROUP F: Italy, Paraguay, New Zealand, Slovakia' started by starcade, Jun 20, 2010.

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  1. starcade

    starcade New Member

    Apr 24, 2009
    #1 starcade, Jun 20, 2010
    Paraguay 4 points +2 GD (1-1 ITA, 2-0 SLO)
    New Zealand 2 points Even (1-1 SLO, 1-1 ITA)
    Italy 2 points Even (1-1 PAR, 1-1 NZL)
    Slovakia 1 point -2 GD (1-1 NZL, 0-2 PAR)

    Italy - Slovakia
    New Zealand - Paraguay

    ITA wins, NZL wins: Team with the larger margin of victory is first, both teams advance. If equal margins, team which scores more.

    IMPORTANT NOTE: In any win (both ITA and NZL win) or (both) draw case, if the two matches end with the same score, lots will be drawn (in the ITA and NZL win case, for position -- in the draw case, for advancement).

    ITA wins, NZL-PAR draw: Italy and Paraguay qualify, Italy must win by at least 3 goals or win by two and score 2 more to get first. Scoring 1 more with a 2-goal win means lots for position. Paraguay would be first otherwise.

    ITA wins, PAR wins: Paraguay first, Italy second. Outright.

    ITA-SLO draw, NZL wins: New Zealand wins the group (and the soccer world ends as we know it ;) ), Slovakia second.

    Both matches draw. Paraguay first, second goes to which team scored more between ITA and NZL. See above.

    ITA-SLO draw, PAR wins: Paraguay first, Italy second. Outright.

    SLO wins, NZL wins: New Zealand wins the group. If the combined margin is less than 4, Paraguay gets second. If it's more than 4, Slovakia gets second. If it's 4, Slovakia must score 3 more goals not for Paraguay to get second (on HTH if 2).

    SLO wins, NZL-PAR draw: Paraguay first, Slovakia second. Outright.

    SLO wins, PAR wins: Paraguay first, Slovakia second. Outright.
     
  2. Revolt

    Revolt Member+

    Jun 16, 1999
    Davis, CA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #2 Revolt, Jun 20, 2010
    Thanks for posting that - not that I've managed to digest it all. Italy looks to be out (with a loss to Slovakia) or looking forward to the Dutch in the Round of 16 (with a win).
     
  3. jcw011

    jcw011 Member

    Apr 14, 2010
    #3 jcw011, Jun 20, 2010
    Maybe I'm doing the math wrong but if Italy and Slovakia draw shouldn't Paraguay still advance?
     
  4. CIA

    CIA Member

    Dec 5, 2007
    Club:
    Hijos de Acosvinchos
    Nat'l Team:
    Peru
    #4 CIA, Jun 20, 2010
    Not if NZ wins.
     
  5. jcw011

    jcw011 Member

    Apr 14, 2010
    #5 jcw011, Jun 20, 2010
    If Italy and Slovakia were to draw, even if New Zealand wins Paraguay should still advance. New Zealand would be first with 5 points, Paraguay second with 4 points, and Italy and Slovakia would be at the bottom with 3 and 2 points respectively right?
     
  6. Albirrojo

    Albirrojo Member

    Aug 27, 2004
    #6 Albirrojo, Jun 20, 2010
    I agree, Paraguay already sits atop with 4 points and would advance even if they lost and Italy/Slovakia draw, as Italy would have 3 points, Slovakia 2.

    Right now, obviously it stands:

    Paraguay 4 points
    New Zealand 2 points
    Italy 2 points
    Slovakia 1 points.

    It does seem often 5 points at least are needed to advance, now this group is obviously a bit different. I thought it might be a tricky group.
     
  7. Ben Sahar redded

    Ben Sahar redded Red Card

    Jun 8, 2010
    Club:
    Espanyol Barcelona
    Nat'l Team:
    Israel
    #7 Ben Sahar redded, Jun 21, 2010
    I have a feeling this might happen. Italy won't win, I'm certain of that.
     
  8. nlsanand

    nlsanand Member+

    May 31, 2007
    Toronto
    Club:
    Toronto FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    #8 nlsanand, Jun 23, 2010
    This is accurate I've been rechecking some of Starcade's work, and I think he screwed a couple of these up.
     
  9. roninmedia

    roninmedia Member

    Jun 19, 2006
    Orlando
    #9 roninmedia, Jun 23, 2010
    If we have to draw lots between Italy and New Zealand, I wonder how some of the conspiracy theorists will ramble on how there is no way possible Italy could lose.
     
  10. Ben Sahar redded

    Ben Sahar redded Red Card

    Jun 8, 2010
    Club:
    Espanyol Barcelona
    Nat'l Team:
    Israel
    #10 Ben Sahar redded, Jun 23, 2010
    Euro 2004 all over again, Paraguay and NZ tie to go through. :D
     
  11. DaveyGorgeous

    DaveyGorgeous Member+

    Jul 6, 2006
    NYC
    Club:
    Juventus FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Italy
    #11 DaveyGorgeous, Jun 24, 2010
    EURO 2004 was totally different. We needed to win and also hope that Sweden-Denmark didnt tie in a score of 2-2 or more. Here, if we win, we're in. We control our own destiny.
     
  12. Dr. Gamera

    Dr. Gamera Member+

    Oct 13, 2005
    Wheaton, Maryland
    #12 Dr. Gamera, Jun 24, 2010
    Re: Group F Advancement Scenarios [R]

    Result (highlight to reveal): It seems to me that as soon as Slovakia scored, New Zealand needed to at least score against Paraguay to have a chance of advancing. Until then, New Zealand could have advanced (by drawing of lots) with a 0-0 draw, if Italy-Slovakia also ended 0-0.
     

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