Well, like Group B, everyone is still alive, but the top dogs play each other, with a draw seeing both through, and the bottom two both needing a win themselves, a winner in the other game, and making up some serious GD in the process. For the record, here are the tie-breakers: 1. Goal Difference in ALL group matches 2. Goals Scored in ALL group matches If two or more teams still tied, then: 1. Points gained in group games between the tied teams 2. Goal difference in group games between tied teams 3. Goals scored in group games between the tied teams 4. Drawing of lots. http://www.fifa.com/mm/document/tour...10inhalt_e.pdf And the table Team, PTS, GD, GF URU: 4, +3, 3 MEX: 4, +2, 2 FRA: 1, -2, 0 RSA: 1, -3, 1 Advancement Scenarios: A. Uruguay In with: 1. A WIN OR DRAW vs. Mex 2. A LOSS v. Mexico plus a WINNER in the France/South Africa game as long as: ---a. RSA win = the margin of both wins combined is less than 7 goals. ---b. FRA win = the margin of both wins combined is less than 5 goals OR the margin of both wins combined is 5 goals AND France score less than 4 more goals than Uruguay OR the margin is 5 goals AND France score 3 more goals than Uruguay and fail to win drawing of lots. Out with: 1. A LOSS v. Mexico AND South Africa WIN where the margin of both results combined is 7+ goals, OR 2. A LOSS v. Mexico AND a France WIN where the margin of both results combined is 6+ goals OR the margin of both results combined is 5 goals, France score 4 more goals than Uruguay OR the margin of both results combined is 5 goals, France score 3 more goals than Uruguay, AND with the drawing of lots. Win Group with: 1. A WIN/DRAW vs. Mexico B. Mexico In with: 1. A WIN/DRAW vs. Uruguay. Out with: 1. A LOSS vs. Uruguay and a French WIN over South Africa where the margin of both results is 5 goals or more OR the margin of both results is 4 & France score 4 more goals than Mexico, OR 2. A LOSS vs. Uruguay AND a South Africa WIN over France where the margin of both results is 6+ goals OR where the margin of both results is 5 goals & South Africa scores 3 more goals than Mexico OR where the margin of both results is 5 goals & South Africa scores 2 more goals than Mexico and wins the drawing of lots. Wins Group: 1. A WIN vs. Uruguay C. France In with: 1. A WIN over South Africa AND a Uruguay WIN over Mexico where the combined margin of both results is 5+ goals OR where the margin of both results is 4 goals & France scores 4 more goals than Mexico. 2. A WIN over South Africa AND a Mexico WIN over Uruguay where the combined margin of both results is 6+ goals OR where the margins combined are 5 goals and France scores 4 more goals than Uruguay OR where the margins combined are 5 goals and France scores 3 more goals than Uruguay & wins the drawing of lots. Out with: 1. Anything but the above scenarios. Can't win the group. D. South Africa In With: 1. A WIN over France and a Uruguay WIN over Mexico where the combined margin of both results is 6+ goals OR where the margin is 5 goals & South Africa scores 3 more goals than Mexico OR the margin is 5 goals & South Africa scores 2 more goals than Mexico & wins the drawing of lots. OR 2. A Win over France and a Mexico WIN over Uruguay where the combined margin of both results is 7+ goals OR where the margin is 6 goals & South Africa scores 3 more goals than Uruguay. Out with: 1. Anything but the above. Can't win the group. Whew! Again, I did it in a hurry, and any corrections are welcome. Basically: 1. France needs needs a 2-0/3-0 win and 3-0/2-0 loss by Mexico (or throw another goal or two if Mexico wins) while South Africa needs 3-0 win and 0-3 loss by Mexico or throw another goal or two on the fire if Uruguay loses.
Mexico have to play for the win because if they tie they play Argentina, if they loose they might play Argentina unless France takes the second spot in Group A. Forlan and Suarez versus Blanco, Dos Santos and J. Hernandez. Good Luck El Tri! .
This could be a "Friendly" for a tie...unless they play for the 1st spot..but if they both want to be guarenteed in r16 they can agree on a tie...but I doubt they will do that.
Yep. Avoiding Argentina is a powerful incentive. But I could see France getting 3 vs. RSA if Domestench has the balls to play two strikers not named Anelka & Gignanc, and lets Ribery & Malouda play wide. If so, 0-2 vs. Uruguay could put them out. So it would be nervy if they got down 1-0. Especially considering if Uruguay are up 1-0, they could really get the bit between their teeth, as a draw also sees them win the group. Especially if Forlan gets the first goal, then starts dreaming about the Golden Boot, I could see Uruguay really press for a 2nd and 3rd. If Mexico gets up 1-0 early, I think they'll play largely on the counter, as a draw would lead them to Argentina.
Uruguay is also in with a loss vs. Mexico and a draw in FRA/RSA. Mexico is also in with a loss vs. Uruguay and a draw in FRA/RSA.
Thanks, I was so excited to get to the scenarios where they didn't get in I forgot the one where they do. Also, I put a typo in the thread title, this scenario stuff is some scenarious business!
This will be the first time since the 1982 West Germany-Austria match that this situation has occurred. Actually, the '82 scenario was even worse. West Germany needed a win, while Austria need to lose by 2 goals or less. WG scored in the first few minutes and the two teams spent the last 80 minutes kicking the ball around aimlessly. At least there wasn't much stoppage time at the end. The result left three teams tied with 4 points, with WG (+3) and Austria (+2) advancing on goal differential over Algeria (even). Of course, with Northern Ireland being an upset winner in their group, one might say finishing second put Austria in an easier group than if they'd won - except NI upset Spain 4 hours after the WG-Austria game. (WG had to face England and host Spain in the second round groups.)
Coulibaly's second referee assignment should be Mexico-Uruguay. I think the over/under betting for cards is 1/2.
brialliant thread started...i was waiting for this for a while. Thanks for the effort...reading it now..
ok heck....tall order for SA... I can imagine a 2-0 win for SA over France...3-0 unlikely....and also i cannot imagine Uruguay beating Mexico or vice versa with a big margin. If only SA can be on fire tomorrow...and France very weak...so that they end up scoring 5-0 agains France or something...so that the Mex - Ur tie becomes less of a concern (except for the draw)
No offence, but it is possible. Has this never occured before in the past? I cannot easily imagine a 3-0 win. Something like 1-0 or 2-1 for either team sounds realistic. Cannot imagine one of these teams hammering the other...even though i HOPE this will be the case...