GOP Failure Watch Part VI (Majority in House Edition) The Insurrection Caucus Sh*tshow.

soccernutter · Oct 3, 2023

Bootsy Collins said: ↑

I think that's a nice thought. But I don't know of a reason to believe it'll happen. I don't expect anything that'll make me feel good from any Republican right now -- just different degrees of bad.
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I think he named a couple of Reps in purple/Biden districts, which suggests the voters in that district are either evenly split or are moderate. I'm sure there are more out there, and it's not like there aren't some moderate Dems as well, or at least Dems that Reps are willing to vote for. So, if they are interested in staying in DC, or at least separating from the Crazy, there may be enough to not vote for McCarthy - to vote Present. And, really, the Dems only need 6 to do that. Unlikely, but not out of the realm of possibilities, specially if the R House Civil War escelates.

soccernutter · Oct 3, 2023

Deadtigers said: ↑

I would check with @American Brummie but as it is a motion, it needs to be voted on per Roberts Rules. I don't know if it's a simple majority or two thirds needed but what figure it's a majority so a vote has to be taken with all 430 or so members whatever they support the motion. The 214 Democrats would most likely abstain leaving it to a decision solely based on the Republicans.

However again I'm not sure if it is simple majority or 66% and how many votes are needed in general.
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I thought I read somewhere that it was a simple majority of the members - 218. But, I'm not sure if that was assuming all Dems voted or if it was based on voting eligible seats.

Minnman · Oct 3, 2023

diablodelsol said: ↑

So how exactly will this vote work? I thought Gaetz’ motion was to declare the speakership vacant, no? So don’t they need a majority to vote that it is vacant or McCarthy remains speaker? I think it will take 100 plus Dem votes to pass….as the majority of the GOP caucus knows there is none among them that could win a house majority so I just don’t see them removing him on their own.

Or am I completely missing how this works?
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Here's a decent overview from January:

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/mot...ng-point-gop-speaker-battle/story?id=96241364

In the end, it's a majority up-or-down vote that'll decide whether McCarthy stays on as Speaker. But it could take a while before that voter happens. And if Dems abstain, it affects how a majority is calculated.

It's only happened once before in American history, 1910.

argentine soccer fan · Oct 3, 2023

soccernutter said: ↑

I think he named a couple of Reps in purple/Biden districts, which suggests the voters in that district are either evenly split or are moderate. I'm sure there are more out there, and it's not like there aren't some moderate Dems as well, or at least Dems that Reps are willing to vote for. So, if they are interested in staying in DC, or at least separating from the Crazy, there may be enough to not vote for McCarthy - to vote Present. And, really, the Dems only need 6 to do that. Unlikely, but not out of the realm of possibilities, specially if the R House Civil War escelates.
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Some may be open to help out, but it will cost.

Democratic Rep. Jim McGovern of Massachusetts perhaps summed it up perfectly when asked about a potential deal. “If people want to talk to me about it, I’m all ears. But I’m not a cheap date,” McGovern told The Messenger news website. “I’m not inclined to do anything to save Kevin McCarthy for nothing. I’m an expensive date.”
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https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/01/opinions/kevin-mccarthy-gaetz-democrats-speaker-obeidallah/index.html

superdave · Oct 3, 2023

"I'm an expensive date." Classic.

You know what all the sickos are rooting for right? Right?

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Gaetz wins his vote by a small margin, and McCarthy is out. And then the House spends a week trying to find a new speaker and can't, and then the GOPs go back and reinstall McCarthy. That would be so, so epic. I mean, bad for America, but so, so epic.

American Brummie · Oct 3, 2023

argentine soccer fan said: ↑

Some may be open to help out, but it will cost.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/01/opinions/kevin-mccarthy-gaetz-democrats-speaker-obeidallah/index.html
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And unless the Rules change, every time McCarthy gets bailed out Dems will extract another ransom. At no point does this end with Matt Gaetz as Speaker.

Funkfoot · Oct 3, 2023

As one dem congressperson said, "Not our circus, not our clown." Dems will stay on the sideline.

American Brummie · Oct 3, 2023

I dunno precisely how the vote will lay out; will Dems vote "No" or "Present" is the big wild card in terms of how easily McCarthy swats this down.

JohnR · Oct 3, 2023

American Brummie said: ↑

And unless the Rules change, every time McCarthy gets bailed out Dems will extract another ransom. At no point does this end with Matt Gaetz as Speaker.
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Another? What was their first ransom? My take on this nonsense was that the Freedom Caucus threw a huge pout and got nothing in return for its tantrum but a poke at Ukraine. Meanwhile, the Democrats did not pout and got nothing in return for their patience. In fact, they lost a bit with Ukraine.

argentine soccer fan · Oct 3, 2023

JohnR said: ↑

Another? What was their first ransom? My take on this nonsense was that the Freedom Caucus threw a huge pout and got nothing in return for its tantrum but a poke at Ukraine. Meanwhile, the Democrats did not pout and got nothing in return for their patience. In fact, they lost a bit with Ukraine.
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Yeah, but Ukraine is huge. What happens next with that is very important.

soccernutter · Oct 3, 2023

American Brummie said: ↑

I dunno precisely how the vote will lay out; will Dems vote "No" or "Present" is the big wild card in terms of how easily McCarthy swats this down.
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If the Dems put on their big boy pants, they'll vote Present. But only after some concessions are made, such as ending the impeachment hearing.

soccernutter · Oct 3, 2023

argentine soccer fan said: ↑

Yeah, but Ukraine is huge. What happens next with that is very important.
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They lost Ukraine for the next 45 days. At the cost of not having a government shutdown. The shutdown would have made things a lot worse.
What happens with the next CR or full budget comes up is where the win/loss matters for Ukraine.

American Brummie · Oct 3, 2023

JohnR said: ↑

Another? What was their first ransom? My take on this nonsense was that the Freedom Caucus threw a huge pout and got nothing in return for its tantrum but a poke at Ukraine. Meanwhile, the Democrats did not pout and got nothing in return for their patience. In fact, they lost a bit with Ukraine.
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I doubt they've been asked for their price. A clean CR gets us through the Virginia elections and a shutdown might not poll as pro-Dem as we want to believe.

Cascarino's Pizzeria · Oct 3, 2023

soccernutter said: ↑

If the Dems put on their big boy pants, they'll vote Present. But only after some concessions are made, such as ending the impeachment hearing.
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But that might send the Sedition Caucus over the edge!

American Brummie · Oct 3, 2023

ha ha, yes, @superdave

rslfanboy · Oct 3, 2023

American Brummie said: ↑

ha ha, yes, @superdave
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Did they vote already?

Bootsy Collins · Oct 3, 2023

soccernutter said: ↑

I think he named a couple of Reps in purple/Biden districts, which suggests the voters in that district are either evenly split or are moderate. I'm sure there are more out there, and it's not like there aren't some moderate Dems as well, or at least Dems that Reps are willing to vote for. So, if they are interested in staying in DC, or at least separating from the Crazy, there may be enough to not vote for McCarthy - to vote Present. And, really, the Dems only need 6 to do that. Unlikely, but not out of the realm of possibilities, specially if the R House Civil War escelates.
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I saw that after I posted; but in the end, logical arguments don't seem to me to apply where the GQP is concerned. I never expect anything good from them anymore -- just less vs. more awful, and it's a matter of trying to keep things on the "less" end.

JohnR · Oct 3, 2023

American Brummie said: ↑

I dunno precisely how the vote will lay out; will Dems vote "No" or "Present" is the big wild card in terms of how easily McCarthy swats this down.
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Allegedly, all Democrats will vote No.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news...er-republicans-trump-trial-biden-live-updates

MattR · Oct 3, 2023

He is running a show trial for impeachment because Trump and the Freedumb caucus asked him to. Get rid of him.

Sounders78 · Oct 3, 2023

"Let them wallow in their pigsty of incompetence and inability to govern" - Pramila Jayapal (D-WA)

JohnR · Oct 3, 2023

Sounders78 said: ↑

"Let them wallow in their pigsty of incompetence and inability to govern" - Pramila Jayapal (D-WA)
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That's good.

diablodelsol · Oct 3, 2023

I thought it was silly for the Dems to hold out for Jeffries back in January (by forcing GOP unanimity) and think it will be silly if they do it again.

Present rules to the ten most moderate (if there are ten) GOP house reps and say one of you will be speaker if you commit to these rules and can deliver 5(?) of your peers. Then wait them out.

taosjohn · Oct 3, 2023

diablodelsol said: ↑

I thought it was silly for the Dems to hold out for Jeffries back in January (by forcing GOP unanimity) and think it will be silly if they do it again.

Present rules to the ten most moderate (if there are ten) GOP house reps and say one of you will be speaker if you commit to these rules and can deliver 5(?) of your peers. Then wait them out.
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And when absolutely none of them want the job?

JohnR · Oct 3, 2023

diablodelsol said: ↑

Present rules to the ten most moderate (if there are ten) GOP house reps and say one of you will be speaker if you commit to these rules and can deliver 5(?) of your peers. Then wait them out.
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It's hard for me to imagine any of those 10 surviving the next primary. You guys would crush any Dem who crossed sides to work with Republicans, if 95% of the Dem party held out. So surely would Republican voters to their crossover reps.

charlie15 · Oct 3, 2023

I heard Jayapal's interview on Crooked Media. She is very clear. They will not save Kevin's ass unless they get some major rule changes. Let the ********er sweat and let them fight between themselves.