Goal contribution of the best players

Discussion in 'The Beautiful Game' started by Trachta10, Nov 4, 2020.

  1. Jeffersonfv99

    Jeffersonfv99 Member

    Sport recife
    Brazil
    Jul 10, 2021
    Brasil
    Nat'l Team:
    Brazil
    Yes
     
  2. IceBlood34

    IceBlood34 Member

    Montpellier HSC
    France
    Jan 27, 2021
  3. Trachta10

    Trachta10 Member+

    Apr 25, 2016
    Club:
    CA Boca Juniors
    Here a table with the accumulated stats for the first three seasons of Platini at Juventus, in which he won the Ballon d'Or in each season (well deserved of course), and Maradona for comparison

    Only club
    [​IMG]


    Club + National Team
    [​IMG]
     
  4. carlito86

    carlito86 Member+

    Jan 11, 2016
    Club:
    Real Madrid
    #1504 carlito86, Aug 12, 2022
    Last edited: Aug 12, 2022
    G/A involvement is the be all and end all or it simply isn't.

    Maradona leads Platini in % involvement AND non pen goals/assist per 90 according to your data

    Not over a game nor over a season but over 3 consecutive seasons

    Not any 3 random seasons but the 3 seasons in which Michel Platini won the only 3 ballon dors of his career

    Its even worse than this because Diego Maradona was literally a walking STD(sexually transmitted disease) in 1983/84

    So if your data is correct why is Platini in your words a "deserved winner"

    You can't say the reason was him winning more trophies because that would make Dani alves the GOAT of this sport and someone like Roberto baggio its peasant

    You can't even use the self defeating argument that Platini was the protagonist behind more major trophies again because your argument has always been Maradona simply never benefited from the same super team edge as most (if not all) his contemporaries

    So then what is real the purpose of this graph if not a subtle attempt at suggesting Diego Maradona was always better and effective then Michel Platini

    If we take your graph to its furthest extent the inference would be Maradona was not only more effective than Michel Platini during his ballon dor years(having a superior non penalty goal/assist per 90 rate)
    But he was also more important to his teams(having a superior % involvement contribution)




    This is despite him playing for demonstrably weaker teams,' experimenting' heavily with cocaine,contracting Hepatitis, and having his ankle broken by Goiko


    This is before we even get to Maradona accumulating at least 3× the amount of dribbling runs as Platini during 1983-1985 which isnt even mentioned or alluded to in this graph

    Am i interpreting your graph correctly or not?
     
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  5. IceBlood34

    IceBlood34 Member

    Montpellier HSC
    France
    Jan 27, 2021
    @Trachta10
    What are your official statistics for Pele, Puskas?
    Do you also have statistics on Josef Bican and Erwin Helmchen?

    Also, I tried to estimate two new players who seemed to be prolific players in their time: Steve Bloomer and Dave Halliday.
    I estimated for Bloomer: 419 goals & 135 assists = 554 G/A
    For Halliday: 365buts & 98assists = 463 G/A
     
  6. peterhrt

    peterhrt Member+

    Oct 21, 2015
    Club:
    Leeds United AFC
    Bloomer would not have that many assists. He was the original specialist goal poacher who did virtually nothing in the game except score.
     
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  7. IceBlood34

    IceBlood34 Member

    Montpellier HSC
    France
    Jan 27, 2021
    Then, How many assists do you think for him ?
     
  8. peterhrt

    peterhrt Member+

    Oct 21, 2015
    Club:
    Leeds United AFC
    To be honest, I don't know much about assists or how they are measured. But whatever range you use, Bloomer would be very much at the low end.
     
  9. carlito86

    carlito86 Member+

    Jan 11, 2016
    Club:
    Real Madrid
    #1509 carlito86, Sep 2, 2022
    Last edited: Sep 2, 2022
    You are probably if not definitely better placed to make these types of calls about pre war era players but dont you think lack of proof isn't evidence within itself


    To use as an example someone who i know a little about the late Gerd Muller
    A Supreme 'goal poacher' who also perfected this art


    There is also probably more footage of Gerd muller at the world cup there there is of Steve bloomer in his entire career

    If one was to judge Gerd Muller strictly from his world cup performances would it also be fair to say he literally did nothing except put the ball in the back of the net

    It would be fair IMO(based on the data and footage)But then that isn't a fair and objective way of analysing his career

    Gerd muller of the world cup isn't remotely the same as gerd Muller of Bayern Munich
    The latter was a relatively prolific assister,was more of a runner/mobile and could create his own goalscoring opportunities to a higher degree then he could at any of the world cups he participated in


    Or even Maradona 1986 with his 5 goals+5 assists in 7 world cup matches
    The world cup supposedly being the highest standard of football at his time even higher then Serie A.

    Did Maradona ever reproduce his 1986 world cup end product in any Serie A campaign?
    Be it when napoli was relatively weak in 1984-1986
    Or when napoli was stronger with the acquisition of carnavale or careca

    So imagine all we had was his 1986 world cup
    Footage of it and match reports

    Many would believe Maradona was something that he really was not except in 7 matches


    Bottom line is all the facts and data are required to make a definitive judgement about any player
    I say this purely in the interest of fairness.

    Then if you want we can interpret those same facts with context
     
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  10. peterhrt

    peterhrt Member+

    Oct 21, 2015
    Club:
    Leeds United AFC
    A bit more about Bloomer in link below. Post #7.

    From what was written about him at the time, it seems he was unique in his day for not being interested in anything but scoring himself. This divided opinion more than it would now, with Victorian class undertones and the north-south divide. The England selectors did not like him much but stuck with him knowing he could win matches.

    Newspaper reports back then rarely described how goals were scored, only who scored them. They preferred to concentrate on other aspects of play, and footballers more active around the pitch tended to receive more praise than Bloomer.

    https://www.bigsoccer.com/threads/football-eras-2-british-golden-age.2036222/#post-34727583
     
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  11. Trachta10

    Trachta10 Member+

    Apr 25, 2016
    Club:
    CA Boca Juniors
    Career stats with the numbers updated

    [​IMG]

    As a curiosity,
    Kylian Mbappé has played 342 games so far in his career.

    His stats compared to the legends in his first 342 games

    [​IMG]
     
  12. PDG1978

    PDG1978 Member+

    Mar 8, 2009
    Club:
    Nottingham Forest FC
    I know I said it before mate (and I realise some/all of the other players will have been on the pitch when team-mates scored penalties too a few times - for example Carlos Alberto scoring them with Pele on the pitch), but I still feel like Cruyff's overall involvement percentage is being trashed a bit by the fact team-mate penalty goals aren't being removed from total team goals, but penalties scored by the player in question are being.

    I'm not sure how possible it would be to find all team-mate penalty goals (for Messi, C.Ronaldo, Mbappe it surely will be quite easy though and for the others in theory possible even if maybe time-consuming), but as an alternative for now here are calculations for % of open play goals and assists (including free-kicks etc so basically non-penalty goals I mean) by a player out of all team goals (including penalties), using your totals stated above:

    Career
    Messi - (774-103)+339/2339 = 43.18%
    Maradona - (344-88)+206/1103 = 41.89%
    Pele - (756-85)+369/2117 = 49.13%
    Cruyff - (403-8)+358/1870 = 40.27%
    C.Ronaldo - (816-145)+230/2461 = 36.61%

    First 342 games
    Pele - (438-42)+198/1138 = 52.20%
    Maradona - (217-43)+99/589 = 46.35%
    Cruyff - 265+179/989 = 44.89%
    Mbappe - (235-20)+109/872 = 37.16%
    Messi (211-19)+98/771 = 37.61%
    C.Ronaldo - (125-14)+62/633 = 27.33%

    I feel like maybe that represents things better for non-penalty goals, unless all team-mate penalties could be deducted too (then that would be better of course, so that non-penalty goals weren't being divided by all team goals and the percentages weren't deflated because of it).

    Maybe it is the best middle ground to take out penalties anyway, although I know there is still the original method where penalty goals are considered (although not who wins the penalties by being fouled as that will be impossible to get accurate numbers for for the older players I suppose, even if it was decided it would be good to factor in) - the penalty takers would then get credit for the penalty goals and being chosen to take them too, but it would be a big disadvantage for the non-penalty takers. There would also be a possibility to just look at open play goals or at least take out direct free-kick goals too, which would benefit Cruyff even more of course, but free-kick scoring is much more specialist than penalty scoring and so that sort of calculation would maybe just be best as an 'extra' if anything rather than the 'main' calculation.
     
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  13. PDG1978

    PDG1978 Member+

    Mar 8, 2009
    Club:
    Nottingham Forest FC
    Maybe you were factoring in when goals were scored when players weren't on the pitch Trachta though (or minutes played anyway) - that looks like the reason I ended up with Messi having a slightly higher % than Mbappe for first 342 games with my adjusted calculations above, despite scoring nearly as many penalties - Mbappe will have played less minutes.

    I guess that's another question in terms of whether that adjustment is best being made or not (certainly in examples like players getting injured early in games, although that won't happen a lot, it'd be better to factor in I'm sure to be fair, or players coming on late as substitutes not that that would have happened a lot for these players either).
     
  14. Trachta10

    Trachta10 Member+

    Apr 25, 2016
    Club:
    CA Boca Juniors
    The mainly problem in the way you are calculating is that those numbers of team goals are the total scored by the team in those games, also counting the goals while the players wasn't on the pitch
    So it is a very big disadvantage for current players, since they play fewer minutes per game.

    We could say that the ideal way to do the calculation is to count exactly how many goals the team scored only while the player was playing..

    But I think what I'm doing is even better than that..

    For one side I do, (goals+assists-penalties)/minutes played*90
    And for the other side, (team goals-penalties)/games played

    Then is for example Pelé first 342 games (1.194)/(3.205)*100= 55.89%

    What is the difference of calculating in the way I'm doing above compared to count exactly how many goals the team scored just while the player was on the pitch?

    The difference is that the value I have can be a llittle higher or a little lower to the actual percentage.

    And what depends on whether the result is higher or lower?

    It depends on how dependent the team is on the player.
    If the teams score more while the player is on the bench then my percentage will be a little lower, because the team doesn't depend that much on the player, but If the team score less while the players is playing compared to while the player was on the bench, then the percenatge of the player will be a little lower.

    Basically what this does is adjust things a bit to benefit the players who had more influence on their team. If you think about it, is even better compared to count just the team goals while the player was on the pitch.
    I hope I have explained myself well :ROFLMAO:


    Cruyff and penalties
    Yeah I think the ideal thing to do is to remove the penalties scored by the teammates to the team goals. But honestly, I don't have that information.
    I see that you don't remove the own penalties the player scored to the team goals like I do, and yes I think maybe that can adjusts the things

    about Cruyff. What I have seen comparing a lot of players is that those who had more a "playmaker role" usually have lower numbers, because is simply more difficult to have a high goal involvement when you are not only focused on scoring goals. Mainly because not all goals have a posible assists, and
    these players influence the score more indirectly with a lot of pre assists.
    And also Cruyff (compred to the others in the table) is know to had more defensive contributions.

    So actually, Cruyff numbers are not bad at all if you see the things with a better context
     
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  15. PDG1978

    PDG1978 Member+

    Mar 8, 2009
    Club:
    Nottingham Forest FC
    Yes, I think on balance the way you treat minutes on the pitch can be a good solution (it makes it a bit less simple to follow of course, in terms of the calculations, but it seems to be a decent compromise about how to treat this topic...or a good estimation over the long term perhaps if we look at it like that, and I guess it doesn't change a huge amount, but just recognises more time on the pitch in theory means more time to score/assist of course, even if 'rest time' can be good for fitness (but modern players do play in a more intense game style I suppose which counters that a bit), and since it reflects team-mates scoring when players aren't on the pitch then yeah it could on balance be better than just looking at goals scored when players are on the pitch....even though it might miss some specific examples of goals I guess in individual games).

    On the other hand, like you agree with, I do feel the treatment of the penalties is less than ideal as your method is good but only really if we can take away team-mate penalties too. Yeah, I feel like even though it reduces the percentages from what they'd be strictly for non-penalty goals, maybe the method I illustrated would get closer to the balance between players that we'd get to if taking out team-mate penalties. If all the players are frequent penalty takers the effect is minimal I suppose, but for players like Cruyff (or Dalglish like we discussed before as another example) it does make a more significant difference for the non-penalty goal stats.

    Anyway, it's great work overall so I'm just mentioning these things as a caveat not as a way to dismiss the findings in general.
     
  16. Trachta10

    Trachta10 Member+

    Apr 25, 2016
    Club:
    CA Boca Juniors
    Yes I agree, but then there is also the argument to say that the penalties have some merit and deserve some value..
    which makes me think that maybe, don't remove the own penalties the player scored to the team goals can give you that balance
     
  17. PDG1978

    PDG1978 Member+

    Mar 8, 2009
    Club:
    Nottingham Forest FC
    #1517 PDG1978, Sep 18, 2022
    Last edited: Sep 18, 2022
    Ok, I see what you mean I guess if you'd like a 'middle ground' giving some credit to penalty goals, but it's difficult to do I think because presenting it like in the table on this page makes it look like a 'non-penalty goals + assists' contribution comparison but it's not really because for example Cruyff would be be much closer to Maradona/Messi if it was (factoring in all penalties scored including by team-mates), and in fact in a straight comparison for 'goals + assists' contribution including penalties he'd not be much further behind Maradona, and especially Messi maybe (although minutes played come into it and I've not done the full calculation as you do it) than he is in the table on this page (at about 40% with them up near 50%).

    So I feel like maybe the things should be kept separate - one table for 'goals + assists' and one table for 'non-penalty goals + assists' (which either factors in team-mate penalties or if not possible just shows the calculation for a players non-penalty goals + assists divided by total team goals (including all penalties) with an explanatory note to say that this somewhat under-states the non-penalty contributions (and maybe can even change the balance between players a small amount depending on how many penalties the teams scored overall, but much less so than deducting penalties from totals if the player concerned scored them but not otherwise...as like I'm saying that hugely disadvantages non penalty takers and is also misleading really because it's not a like for like comparison).

    I know before you did some tables with penalties worth 0.5 goals or something, but I guess that is also an artificial adjustment, not a 'factual' one and deciding on the value would be subjective and open to debate I suppose too.

    Maybe even a 'penalty takers' table that shows penalties scored, penalties missed, percentages of penalties a player scores (out of those he takes and/or out of those his team takes when he's on the pitch) would be interesting instead, and would highlight the top penalty takers as a separate exercise, but as you can see by now lol I don't like the non-penalty goals calculations being artificially skewed in favour of penalty takers - I think two tables with one for 'all goals' and one for 'non-penalty goals' is better, even though I realise ideally you'd like a definitive 'end product output' table (I just don't think dealing with penalties like this, so much in favour of those who take them, is a satisfactory way IMHO, and additionally like I say at first glance the tables can appear to show that the penalty takers were much better than non penalty takers for non-penalty goals and assists even though you're not trying to deceive about it).

    I hope my thoughts make sense on that! Basically I feel like the way it's being done gives too much of a disadvantage when a player hardly takes any penalties in their career.
     
  18. Jeffersonfv99

    Jeffersonfv99 Member

    Sport recife
    Brazil
    Jul 10, 2021
    Brasil
    Nat'l Team:
    Brazil
    -1 Assist Pelé, Brazil 3x1 Wales/ Friendly 12/05/1962

    If you put it in slow motion, you can see that the ball does not touch Pelé, he lets it pass without touching him

    Pele = 43 Assists Brazil

    02:30 min Gol de Garrincha (it was NOT assistance Pelé).


     
  19. Jeffersonfv99

    Jeffersonfv99 Member

    Sport recife
    Brazil
    Jul 10, 2021
    Brasil
    Nat'l Team:
    Brazil
    11111111.jpeg


    Does anyone know how many OFFICIAL free kicks Víctor Legrotaglie has?


    They say he has 66 free kicks.

    But I don't know if it's official
     
  20. Trachta10

    Trachta10 Member+

    Apr 25, 2016
    Club:
    CA Boca Juniors
    Ferenc Puskás and Cristiano Ronaldo in Real Madrid

    [​IMG]


    Diego Maradona and Johan Cruyff in Barcelona

    [​IMG]
     
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  21. wm442433

    wm442433 Member+

    Sep 19, 2014
    Club:
    FC Nantes
    there's a whole lot of dribbling thereafter anyway.
    great goal.
     
  22. anamnesis del fútbol

    Apr 9, 2021

    You could make an image with Puskás and Di Stéfano among them. I think it's the Top 7 of all time.
     
  23. Trachta10

    Trachta10 Member+

    Apr 25, 2016
    Club:
    CA Boca Juniors
    I don't have data of free kicks for Puskás in Hungary, and for Di Stéfano I only have the assists
     
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  24. _Ziggy_

    _Ziggy_ Member

    Flamengo
    Brazil
    Mar 20, 2017
    Nat'l Team:
    Brazil
    You folks are phenomenal! Really impressive work you've done and best of all, you're sharing it. The discussions are great as well.
     
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  25. Trachta10

    Trachta10 Member+

    Apr 25, 2016
    Club:
    CA Boca Juniors
    Made one with Haaland in the first 200 games

    [​IMG]
     

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