Lates Exit polls: CDU/CSU 35,5 -3% SPD 34 -5% Green 8,5 +-0 FDP 10,5 +3% Linksparte.PDS 7,5 +5% (ARD numbers) possible coalitions: one big party and two smaller ones or a grand coalition. Most likely is a grand coalition. The SPD lost voters to the left party, the Union lost to the FDP obviously... biggest winner: FDP, Left Party loser: Long term: SPD, short term CDU/CSU Breaking news: Head of the SPD Franz Müntefering just stated that we will still have a Chancelor named Gerhard Schröder This means red-red-green or traffic light.
Latest numbers (ARD): SPD 34,1%, Union 35,3, Grüne 8,1, FDP 10,1, Linke 8,5 Schröder stated he will remain chancellor .
Spiegel has a map showing direct pick ups and second votes in every constituency. The Union is strongest in the south and west, the SPD in the north central and east. Just judging from the map, the SPD seems to have benefited most from unification, though the Union seems strong in Saxony and Mecklenburg.
Here is an interesting blog/diary on the English Spiegel site. Basically, Schoerder states that he believes the Germans want him as Chancelor and ruled out working with Merkel, Fischler has refused a Union, FDP, Green coalition, the FDP says they will not work with the SPD and Greens. Which makes me wonder if Germany will have a Red-Red-Green coalition with the Left Party. Does the German constitution have a provision for a minority government, say a situation where the SPD and Greens for a cabinet and the left Party does not formally join, but they support the government in the Bundestag?
The social democrats have ruled that out. In the 3. voting round a simple majority is enough to elect the chancellor . That would be a minority government which would then try to organize majorities for their legislation. I have to give a lot of credit to Schroeder. He really puts enormous energy into barking in front of people. Last night he acted like an emperor when the elections came out. He was incredibly rude to everyone . “ I’ll remain chancellor , what else?” And the party chairman is now saying that SPD is the strongest party because CDU/CSU are two parties. It’s incredible that he keeps a straight face while saying that
Outside of the South the CDU is only strong in rural regions - it may not look this way on the map, but the SPD got more votes in the West as they won in almost all big cities.
Noone ever needed to . But although he's stretching it, the SPD will be the strongest party in the officialy published result, as CDU and CSU are always counted as two parties there.
Just saw an interview on ARD with an expert from Uni Dusiburg-Essen. He said that not parties in a parlament are what counts but fractions. So it doesn't matter in his opinion that CDU and CSU are in reality two parties. Köhler will give CDU/CSU the mandate to build a government, no doubt about that. The question is whether Merkel will be able to do so.
The parliament can pretty much elect everyone in there as chancellor, as long as the candidate gets a majority.
Well if Schroeder was going to form a coalition with the CDU and leave the CSU in front of the door , it would make sense for him to be chancellor. As the blacks are not going to along with that it’s hard to see what he bases his claim on . Although I’d prefer Schroeder to Merkel this argument is bogus.
I don't think his comment was aimed to influence the president. Münte knows this as well. It was done for the media.
Bullseye. Anyway, won't help Schröder a bit. If he wants to remain as chancellor, he needs to find a majority. PDS won't be the solution, FDP strictly ruled out a traffic-light coalition.
He seems stubborn enough to let this go on until he gets his way. Maybe a big coalition with Schroeder heading it 2 years and then 2 years for someone from the union.
The PDS (well, except Lafontaine of course ) would probably prefer Schröder to Merkel. If the SPD would decide to form a minority government Merkel would have a hard time to win the vote. And although we never had a minority government before, the CDU beeing in the opposition despite beeing the strongest fraction happened before during the time of the SPD-FDP coalition. It all depends on SPD and/or Greens - in the end they will decide who will be chancellor and not the "winner".
Right. And a red-green minority government would be the ultimate stalemate considering that it would not only be a hard time for Schröder in Bundestag but also the Bundesrat would block everything they can. :-/
This would be a difficult situation for the CDU - if they block everything there would be a new election pretty soon and then things could backfire.
Oskar and Gerd brought Kohl to his knees pre-1998 in Bundesrat and were still elected (nah, at least Gerd ;-).
Kohl was kicked out. The CDU was so unpopular back then that even Scharping would have had a chance against Kohl in 1998 .
Absolutely right, still SPD blocked virtually everything in Bundesrat and it did not backfire. In return it even helped them as Kohl wasn't able to bring forward the reforms he planned by that time.
But today the SPD is nowhere near as unpopular as the CDU was back then. They could very well turn things arround - I don't think you can say that they would definitely win in such a situation of course, but I would say that this could be a huge risk for the CDU. If Schröder can convince the public that everything was the CDU's fault the Union could be ********ed. If the CDU tries to block they can only win if the public wants them in the government.