Could you explain a little the whole controversy over the no confidence vote. My understanding is that under the Constitution, the government cannot dissolve the Bundstag and the argument is that is what Schroeder did. I also noted in the latest polls on who is more popular Schroeder or Merkel, Merkel, despite sweaty armpits and confusion over gross and net tax seems to be closing the personal gap with Schroeder.
Well, the constitution states that the German parliament does not have the right to dissolve itself (and of course the government does not have the right to dissolve the parliament either). So the only way to dissolve the parliament according to the constitution is the confidence vote. If the chancellor looses such a vote he can ask the president to dissolve the parliament. But the problem in this case was that Schröder actually always had a majority in the parliament. He only lost the confidence vote because HE wanted his party NOT to vote for him, not because the party did not want to vote for him. Critics said that such a faked confidence vote was unconstitutional, would weaken the parliament and give too much power to the chancellor. The main problem here is that you can't really measure a thing like confidence. But the majority of judges thought that the government had good arguements. As for those popularity polls, I don't really trust them, as they always seem to change quite fast.
Latest Emnid poll: CDU/CSU 42% SPD 30% Greens 8% FDP 7% The Left.PDS 10% link: http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm That means CDU/CSU and FDP have a marginal majority over the other parties SPD, Green and PDS who will not form a coalition atm. It well could be CDU/CSU, FDP or a big coalition of CDU/CSU and SPD either way under a chancelor Angela Merkel. I would prefer the first option though.
Thanks Alex. While I am not a big fan of proportional representation, I think the German system with the 3/5% rule does the best job of using it. Unlike pure PR (like Israel) you do not have the small parties making it impossible to form a majority. You keep the connection between representatives and constituencies, but allow smaller parties a role in government.
If you speak a bit of German you may be interested in the Wahl-O-Mat http://www.wahl-o-mat.de/ Ifa anyone is interested I could translate the whole thing into english so some more could take it.... Actually I seem to be close to the PDS, soon followed after greens and SPD. FDP about half of that and way down CDU/CSU... well, won't vote for Union nor for PDS, so... (that thing about Russian and Turkish was about the last European parliamental elections, sorry)
Agree, but there is ,for example, litle difference betwen FDP and New labour. New labour would be considered a radical free market party in germany like the fdp. In america otoh even the christian democrats would be considered socialist if not even comunist.
I think I already took this test a few years ago. Anyway, I could have already told you my result before taking the test . If anyone's interested though: PDS 86% Greens 78% SPD 65% FDP 35% CDU 25%
This Wahlomat is funny. I`ve I would be german, I had to vote for the Left.PDS, following the advice of the wahlomat But I´ve I would be german, i probably would vote for "Die Partei", cause their advertising convinced me. Have a look: Die Partei political advertising You need this xvid-codec
Latest poll: http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm Emnid (07/08/05): CDU/CSU 42% SPD 32% Greens 7% FDP 7% Lefts.PDS 9% FORSA (07/08/05) CDU/CSU 42% SPD 34% Greens 7% FDP 6% Lefts.PDS 8% Still so tight. But it seems that the PDS/mL is losing support (which is good). Still looks like Grand Coalition...
I was wondering… In a now likely case that fdp and the cdu/csu don’t get the seats to form a government would cdu/csu consider forming a 3 party coalition with fdp and the greens instead of a grand coalition with spd? And could the greens go for it?
I don´t think that is an option atm. There is no CDU-Green coalition in any state so far. So I think it would be to early for a federal coalition. BTW the polls are from 7th of September 05 not August and not July (as our American friends might think when they see 07/08/05).
While it has not happened in any state, I have seen it mentioed as a possibility. While strange, it could happen, given that the Greens are not really an economically motivated party. Looking at it from afar, I doubt it.
I just don’t see how cdu is any closer to spd than to the greens. And if the only option is to coalition with a party you have little in common with I’d rather coalition with a smaller party, which would be easier to push in the wanted direction. Although, the greens would probably refuse the offer anyway.
It´s looks more and more like a grand coalition: 09 September (Forschungsgruppe Wahlen): CDU/CSU 41% SPD 34% Greens 7% FDP 7% The Left.PDS 8% http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm I am getting nervous. CDU/CSU-FDP lost majority... damn it. But it´s not over yet.
Some polls have the FDP down to 6 percent. Damn, if the FDP doesn't get into the Bundestag I wouldn't get the smile off my face for at least one week. I would actually pay to see Merkel's face when she realizes that she got more than 40% but the FDP didn't make into the parliament. Unfortunately this is extremely unlikely, but a man can dream...
I don`t know why, but it`s fvcking great for Germany! I love to see the right-winged conservatives and liberals going down. Man, what would I give to see the that happen in Denmark, where racist dumbfvcks leed the country in an abyss of debts and violence.
I think part of it is that the SPD is unpopular, but Schoeder himself has better numbers than Merkel. So the SPD has done everything to put the focus on the leaders. And Merkel comes off extremely bland and not leaderlike.
It has always been both. It's just that this year one of the candidates is quite bland, kinda like Kohl vs. Scharping in 1994. But historically the chancellor has always played a huge role, although officially he isn't elected by the people.
Actually, if the FDP would be less lobbiistic and have good politicians, they coulöd get more votes. I understand why so many foreigners say they would be pro FDP, and I am sure once they were here they wouldn't be any longer. I am looking forward to the election, and I hope that it will be exciting and entertaining. We'll see.
If you look at the Spiegel page, one interesting item is that Schroerder since late June has consistantly scored above Merkel. The latest poll shows him personally with a 13 point lead. Schoerder is more popular than his party comparing the two candidate polls and the party polls. In the English language coverage, it seems that the SPD is focusing on Schoerder personally, rather than the party platform -- is that what is really going on? The Spiegel tracking polls are here: http://www.spiegel.de/flash/0,5532,11717,00.html
The latest poll on the Spiegel site has the CDU/CSU at 42% and the SPD at 35%. I assume that the undecideds are breaking for the SPD. I guess it will be a grand coalition after all.
They are focusing on blasting Merkel’s proposed finance minister Kirchoff and his flat tax proposal as unsocial. Merkel also wants a flat rate health premium and an easing of firing protections. All that is great ammunition for Schroeder to call them unsocial, cold and brutally capitalistic.