I hope the link works, but this is a page on Spiegel's website that has all the polls. http://www.spiegel.de/flash/0,5532,11677,00.html As of today, the CDU/CSU/FDP coalition has lost its absolute majority. The Left Party is up to 11 %. A Red-Red-Green coalition (which seems to be mentioned more and more) is now tied with the Black-Yellow coalition. Also interesting is that while the SPD is unpopular, the polls show a reference for Schroeder over Merkel. Someone with better German than mine (which is almost gone these days) can explain, but is there anything that explains the methodology of the polls. US polls usually have 4 choices -- GOP, Dems, Other, Undecided. And usually a significant portion is considered undecided until Election Day. The German polls do not seem to have this option, or at least record it. In the last poll, 4% are unaccunted for. Are those undecideds, or supporters of other parties? And how do the polls consider the undecideds? Do they ignoire them or push them one way or another (for example, if someone says "I don't know but I lean toward the CDU, is that counted as a CDU vote?) A concern I had seen is that the polls are undercounting the far right and that they might meet the 5% thresshold. I that still considered a threat?
Thanks for bringing this up. I also saw this today, and was surprised about the result. However, polls have been terribly wrong before so I wouldn't put too much faith into it. Maybe it's an anti-Merkel thing? She's not exactly charismatic, so maybe people start noticing this more? As for the missing 4%, I think these are votes for other parties, mostly the far right. I am not too worried about the extreme right parties though. I think the Linkspartei gets a lot of these traditional protest votes the far right used to get, in addition to the fact that Lafontaine et al. have been blowing the anti-immigration trumpet as well. I'd be grateful if somebody from Germany could comment on it.
While your spelling is obviously correct, I've noticed that some people are deliberately replacing the first "i" with an "e" for emphasis.
The polls usually show the percentage of decided voters, therefore leaving out undecided voters completely. The missing 4% are minor parties. Unrelated to Anthony's post quoted above: I think for starters Wikipedia has a decent English article on German political parties: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_political_parties_in_Germany
http://www.tagesschau.de/aktuell/meldungen/0,1185,OID4595048_TYP6_THE4594962_NAV_REF1_BAB,00.html 27% are undecided, 23% say they "might rethink their decision" (but those are already counted in the current polls). This means that only 50% of the voters say that they are sure already which party they will vote for.
ATM it looks like it might be a "Große Koalition" between CDU/CSU and SPD as there is a stalemate between CDU/CSU and FDP on the one hand and SPD, Greens and Linkspartei (PDS/WASG) on the other. I don´t believe SPD or Greens would form a coalition with the far left so if it stays as it is now there could only be a "Große Koalition" (big coalition??). I would definitely prefer CDU/CSU with FDP though.
Actually, I somehow neither like the idea of a red-red-green, a black-yellow nor a great coalition. Maybe red-yellow - green (ampel) would work ok...
I was wondering -- do the FDP put candidates in the individual constituencies or do they only run on the list? I know the PDS and Greens won a handful of direct seats in 2002 -- do they contest a lot of seats, or just those in the East they think they can win.
Do you mean can you vote for all parties with your first (direct) vote AND your second (proportional) vote? As far as I know, yes. With respect to the FDP, I think traditionally many FDP voters practise splitting - the FDP tends to get more second votes than first votes. I know there are only very few direct FDP mandates ( I think there was one in Halle in 1990?). This is off the top of my head though, correct me if I'm wrong.
Yes, that was my question and thanks, you answered it. The Spiegel site has a great amount of information on the election, including who won what seat in 2002. Unfortunatly, my German is not that great these days (be real -- practically nonexistant -- I can make a little small talk with my wife's relatives and that's it). So I cannot find if they list direct candidates for this year. As for the spliting, I remember a few elections ago, the FDP was in danger of falling below 5% and the CDU was looking to win easily, so they asked some CDU supporters to vote FDP on the proportional vote.
Well sounds like a win-win situation for you... you can use your interest in German politics to practise the language. I remember that people said some CDU voters gave the FDP their second vote. The same has been said about SPD voters back when the FDP was still in a coalition with the SPD. I'll check out the Spiegel website later, do you have the exact link to the relevant page?
This is the "politik" page which of course is mostly about the election. This is the "Wahl 2005" front page And here is a great page that is a running graph of the major polls. Merkel apparently confused "net" and "gross" incomes, is have a conflict with Stoiber and also has sweaty armpits. It is looking more and more like a "Grosskoalition"
Danke! I just had a look but I can't find the list of direct candidates either. maybe the FDP have them on their webpage... you forgot to mention that Stoiber is insulting the Ossies...
In 2002 only 3 non CDU/CSU or SPD candidates won the direct vote in their Wahlkreis, as far as I know: Hans-Christian Ströbele, Grüne (Berlin 084) Petra Pau, PDS (Berlin 086) Gesine Lötzsch, PDS (Berlin 087) In 2005 Gysi might be added to this list again. FDP, Grüne and PDS usually have own candidates in most Wahlkreisen - they compete through the list as well, so the party looses nothing for having an own candidate. If a candidate wins the directe vote he is taken off the list. Here is the complete result of the 2002 election, including the results of every Wahlkreis: http://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/wahl...eutsch/ergebnis2002/btw2002/index_btw2002.htm
Here is the list of the FDP candidates for 05 btw, as you were looking for it. Damn, I feel dirty for going to the FDP website. http://develop.liberale.de/kandidaten/kandidaten.php
Thanks. And so you know, the FDP is probably the only serious political party in the world that is, in theory, closest to my political beliefs. So I'll send you some wet napkins to clean you off!
(Interestingly, this picture seems to be off some sort of survivalist website. They seem to think them important. So WET NAPS for all before the terrorists nuke Paris, London and New York!)
Curious: Is the FDP yellow? If so, why in the name of all that is holy would they coalesce with SPD and Bundis 90? BTW, congratulations on having some democracy.
Yes, the FDP is yellow. Actually, it is not as crazy as it sounds. The FDP was part of the SPD governments in the 70s and early 80s. The FDP switched their support to the CDU/CSU when in the early 80s, the SPD moved leftward. The Greens also are not really an economic party and I have seen it argued that their support comes for the upper middle classes and the educated classes. They have even been mentioned as a possible coalition partner for the CDU/CSU (though I doubt it).
Ah, hence the difference. Here in California, the Libertarians and the Greens get along famously (the whole "enemy of my enemy" thing), and have debates between their candidates, forgetting that in order to have a debate on something, there needs to be the slightest shred of common ground from which to start... With Bundis 90 staying away from economic issues (whatever...) it makes more sense that the two parties could stomach each other.
The FDP are opportunists. Their main motivation has always been to show everyone in the country that they are needed. If someone asks them, they will be there to form a coalition. Between 1949 and 1998 they have been in every government, except for the 4 years of the CDU/DP coalition 1957-1961 and the 3 years of the grand coalition under Kiesinger (66-69). Bündnis 90 is the name of a East German party which merged with den Grünen after the re-unification, btw. The shortform of the name would be die Grünen.
The Constitutional court has announced his decision and the election will take place on September 18th. I already got my voter ID a few days ago though. Damn, this would have been a huge waste of paper if the court would have decided otherwise...