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Discussion in 'FIFA and Tournaments' started by SoccerFan8270, Nov 3, 2003.
Where do you think that some future World Cups should be played at?
Trinidad & Tobacco ?
Montserrat...! With the host nation getting a free spot.
Yeah, but they'll have to requalify after winning it...
Isn't the 2010 World Cup slated to go to an African nation, now that FIFA apparently is going with some continent rotation (Europe in '06, Africa in '10, etc.)? If so, who are the leading contenders and who should get it, in your humble opinion?
FIFA wants to rotate it.
Europe in 2006
Africa in 2010
2014 is up for grabs. I've heard Brazil wants to host it, but they have major internal issues. I see the 2014 World Cup coming down to Australia and the United States.
Whoever loses the 2014 bid will get the 2018 Cup.
Geesh, the 2018 World Cup! Mindboggling!
Re: Future Cups
I agree with 2006 and 2010. Brasil will host in 2014. FIFA has never defined the rotation scheme. After 12 years, Europe will get 2018 - probably England. By 2022, it will be time for North America - Canada, Mexico, and USA will all be candidates. After that, my crystal glass is a little murky.
Re: Future Cups
2014 is not up for grabs. Fifa has already said South America will get it and conmebol has voted for brazil to be host. Ther's no way fifa will take it from a politically strong confederation such as conmebol to give it to concacaf or ofc. 2018 is up for grabs, but if fifa is following any logical order I think it should go to ofc since its never hosted a world cup and 2022 should go to concacaf.
Re: Re: Future Cups
I remember hearing that 2014 was going to CONMEBOL and to Brazil, specifically. Though I've also heard that Brazil has major logistical problems. Argentina's economy is almost non-existent. Uruguay seems to be the next logical choice, or maybe Chile.
I know FIFA would like it to be Brazil, but their stadiums are old, and can their economy handle building a few new stadiums?
Re: Re: Re: Future Cups
CONMEBOL seemed to have agreed that Brazil is the only one candidate for WC 2014.
Ideally, Oceania(namely Australia) or concacafvwill get 2018 or 2022.... but somehow I think UEFA will have the power to stop the rotation. They will get it soon than anybody else.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Future Cups
Assuming the rotation stays in place:
I definitely think China will be the next Asian country to host it. England should be next in line for Europe because all the other major countries have hosted it since they last did in 1966.
That sets up Uruguay as hosts for 2030, which would be pretty cool for the 100th Anniversary World Cup.
i agree the 100 year anniv would be cool in Uruguay, but you've skipped Africa if the rotation is to hold true.
And where does Oceania fit in the equation? they get a 1/2 spot, or once every other rotation cycle?
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Future Cups
If you look at all the World Cups since WWII, several interesting patterns emerge. Check it out:
1950--South America (Brazil)
1962--South America (Chile)
1970--North America (Mexico)
1978--South America (Argentina)
1986--North America (Mexico)
1994--North America (USA)
2010--Africa (South Africa)
First, the "rotation" has always gone Europe/elsewhere/Europe/elsewhere. Never more (and only once less) than 8 years between a European WC. People were so surprised when Africa didn't get 2006--I think this makes it less surprising.
Second, it's been a loooong time since SA has had a world cup (though they were due to in 86 before Colombia's economy went down the crapper).
These two together suggest strongly that -- assuming the CW that it's Brazil in 2014 is correct -- there's no way Europe is not going to get the WC in 2018. I think it will definitely go to England that year because, as others have pointed out, they've waited the longest of any major European country.
That means the next go-round for the rest of the world will be in 2022. Question, is it China, who has never had the WC, or North America, who have not had a WC since 94/86? I'd say the latter, with Mexico being the probable choice since that sends a signal to Latin America as opposed to just the US (who get no particular love from anyone in the soccer world).
So, who's next? By this time, FIFA will have broken its Europe-every-other-year pattern, so it seems China 2026 is a reasonable possibility.
For those who would say that Uruguay 2030 is the next logical choice, I'd merely point out that it's going to be a cold day in hell before FIFA makes Europe wait 16 years between world cups. Nor have committees been particularly swayed by the sentimentality of anniversaries such as that one; see Athens losing the 100th anniversary Olympics to Atlanta. The Centenary world cup will go to Europe--perhaps Italy, who will have waited 40 years by that point. That will set up 2034 for South America--I'd bet Argentina and/or Uruguay.
All this stuff about "rotation" has to be seen in context. Africa hasn't yet had a world cup in history; I doubt FIFA will be too anxious to give them another (plus, which country has the infrastructure to handle it other than SA?). Oceania hasn't even been in a wc since 82, and FIFA has shown them no love. Doubtful that they're in the rotation anytime soon. I think the lesson of Germany 06 is that FIFA wants to keep Europe happy first--after that, it will sort the rest out.
2022: Mexico or USA
2030: Italy or Spain
2034: Argentina and/or Uruguay
Re: Re: Re: Future Cups
Well its true that some of the stadiums in Brazil are old, most are from the 70's, but they're all in pretty good condition.Brazil wouldn't need to build any stadiums, most would just need a major refiting to meet fifas standards. Im pretty sure that until 2014 they will solve all logistic problems, i mean knowing almost 10 years in advance gives them alot of time to work on it.
2014 is in Brazil or Argentina.
2018 is most likely going to Oceania thus making Australia and New Zealand.
2022 will then go to Europe.
Yeah, I think Australia should get a crack it it some time after 2014. After all, they've done Olympics and Rugby WC pretty well. And this will ensure that they finally get an automatic spot in WC this time.
That's unpossible. FIFA has given Europe every other WC since 1950--there is no way they are going to make Europe wait 16 years between cups all of a sudden. And while it might be a nice gesture to give Oz the Cup, FIFA haven't exactly shown that part of the world a lot of generosity, have they?
For all those who are looking at this issue solely in terms of fairness and geographical distribution, the world you imagine sounds nice, but it's not the one we live in. FIFA is now and always has been heavily biased in favor of Europe, the one continent they can't afford to alienate. Failing to show love to OFC doesn't cost them anything; as this year's earlier debacle with direct WC qualifying spots illustrates, FIFA is all too willing to screw over smaller, less powerful confederations when it suits their political ends.
A rotation system has never been defined stricly on confederational grounds. In fact, partly for reasons that um_chili points out, it would never work. The fact of the matter is, certain confederations (AFC, CONCACAF, CAF, OFC) only have 2-4 countries each that are even capable of hosting.
With that said, the most logical rotation system (based partly on 'fairness' and partly on 'reality') seems to be as follows
Cup A: Europe
Cup B: Rest of the World
Cup C: Americas
Theoretically, that sets up something like this:
10, South Africa
Now, first, this makes way too much sense to ever be adopted. Second, the desire to have the USA host again soon and the desire to have Uruguay get 2030 (they already are putting their 'bid' together) may be outside forces that affect any 'official' rotation system.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Future Cups
Heck if Brazil stuck to stadiums built only in the last 20 years they would be comparable to the stadiums that were available in France. In capacity if not in high-tech quality.
Since FIFA it's all about politics, expect China (and the great opportunitie$$ they represent) to host a WC in 2018. 2 bilion potential clients can't be ignored, even if they suck in football.
For 2022, the WC will probably be in England, but Poland has a chance too , as the only big European country that hasn't hosted yet)
You guys need to remember about the sponsors wanting the 2014 WC to be in the US. I wouldn't rule out the US getting a WC soon because of this, remember everyone is a whore to money, especially FIFA.
I like it. That's probably the best solution...
Your Joking right?