You might think I have way too much time on my hands, but, really I don't. I looked at the starting line-ups of each game and gave the starters 3 points for each game we won, a point for a tie and 0 for a loss, then averaged for number of games started. Fuller started 4 games and we won 3 of them. 10 players tied or beat the team average of slightly more than a point earned per game. Based on this, I propose the following as our ideal starting line up. Fuller Twellman Kamler Cullen Cloutier Ralston Franchino Llamosa Pierce Heaps Brown The closest we have come to that line up gave us our 4th of July weekend winning streak - the exception being Rooney in for Cloutier. Name GS Team ppg Fuller 4 2.25 Brown 8 1.50 Cloutier 4 1.50 Llamosa 8 1.50 Pierce 10 1.30 Twellman 18 1.22 Kamler 10 1.20 Franchino16 1.19 Cullen 19 1.16 Ralston 20 1.10 **TEAM 20 1.10** Heaps 19 1.00 Hernandez9 1.00 Rooney 19 1.00 Chacon 8 0.88 Harris 7 0.86 Sommer 12 0.83 Downing 4 0.75 Asad 1 0.00 Serna 2 0.00
1. This basically just reaffirms what most people agree is the best core. The only problem has been having them all available at the same time! 2. Your choice of Heaps over Rooney and Hernandez seems rather arbitrary. Whatever Hernandez' perceived "attitude" problems are, he is about 10x the player that Heaps is. Rooney was pretty good in the beginning of the season, but seems to have contracted "Harkes' syndrome"; i.e., can't complete a pass!
I disagree with your assessment of Heaps v Hernandez. I will say that Hernandez seems to be more consistent with his performance, but when Heaps is 'on' (and he had been for a while), he is much more useful than Hernandez. Statistically, I went with him over Danny because he has more games started. Besides, Danny still reminds me too much of the downside of Wright - floating forward and leaving his post.
updated stats - rkupp might be right To be accurate for the remainder of the season, I took the stats for SJ and KC out (we won't play them again). No real change in the line up, but rkupp's suggestion that Hernandez should play in place of Heaps bears out. Fuller is a 100% winner this way. Where would be the best place to put Hernandez, though? Central D with Llamosa and slide Pierce to the right? Or, move Cullen back on D and put Hernandez in center mid with Cloutier. Player GS team ppg Fuller 3 3.00 Brown 6 2.00 Llamosa 6 2.00 Kamler 7 1.71 Pierce 8 1.63 Cloutier 4 1.50 Cullen 15 1.47 Twellman 15 1.47 Franchino13 1.46 Ralston 16 1.38 TEAM 16 1.38 Hernandez7 1.29 Heaps 15 1.27 Rooney 15 1.27 Harris 5 1.20 Chacon 7 1.00 Downing 3 1.00 Sommer 10 1.00 Asad 1 0.00 Serna 2 0.00
Move Pierce back to the outside where he's best, and put Hernandez into the middle with Llamosa. Let Cloutier play his best position, dmid. Brown Pierce Llamosa Hernandez Franch Ralston Cullen Cloutier Kamler Fuller Twellbird
Before you guys get out of control and start proposing that Fuller is the greatest forward since Batistuta, why don't you measure who finishes the games? If we do it that way, Chacon's numbers go up and Fuller's go down. You can't seriously begin to say that giving Fuller 3 points for his "performance" in DC and Chacon 0 is an accurate measure of their respective contributions to the match, can you?
I suppose I could have put more work into taking various factors into account, but that would have been too much like work. I was more curious about the starting line-up than subs. I think the starting line-up speaks more to the strategy of the day. A player could get subbed in (or not) for lots of reasons. i.e. Asad or Downing may see more playing time as a sub if we are already in the lead, than if we are losing and need someone like Chacon. That could unfairly skew the data with stronger players getting penalized and weaker players getting rewarded. In the Fuller v Chacon example above, Fuller gets 3 points for starting, but Chacon gets nothing, not 0 points. It is a non-game for him because he did not start. Like a walk in baseball does not affect your batting average. I suppose it wouldn't be too much extra to give all players who get on the pitch during the game (maybe for more than 10 minutes) points. Stay tuned.
Chacon's numbers get worse the more he plays I did the numbers for each person who saw more than 10 minutes on the pitch and Chacon actually gets worse when you count the games he gets subbed into. The Revs are 2-5-1 when Chacon starts and 1-7-0 when he is subbed in. (We are 4-0-0 when he doesn't play at all!) Fuller's numbers drop too, but he still stays in the top 11. Don't get me wrong. I like Chacon and my gut tells me play him but the numbers don't bear that out. He is better as a second half sub.
It is sad that Ralston is the only player to play in every game. Twellman has started in every game except the first (sub). And all of you who put Hernandez or cullen in CB are wrong because obviously Kante will be getting a look this week. I like Cullen in D-mid Chacon in A-Mid and Hernandez on the D-Bench
Re: Chacon's numbers get worse the more he plays What your numbers really say about APC is that when he doesn't start, if the team is ahead he stays on the bench but when the team is behind he is subbed in. Just by nature, defensive players (who come in to protect leads) will do well in your statistical analysys, but offensive players (who come in when the team trails and need late goals) will do poorly. I doubt if we've won a single game all year when we trailed at the half, and I doubt if we've won many games where we trailed at all. This reminds me of Chuck Nevitt, a basketball player from the 70s who was 7'5'' but had no real basketball skills. He was only put in the game during blowouts, earning the nickname "the human victory cigar".
Fuller will not be playing professional soccer within 1 year. He may be the slowest player I have ever seen in MLS.
I wonder if someone could come up with a statistic of the number of times Fuller lost possession immediately after receiving the ball. Or the number of times he should have been able to run onto a through pass but was instead caught by quicksand or some sort of gravitational vortex. I think these figures might more accurately reflect Fuller's contribution to the Revs.
Fuller is definately slow, and will not be in the league next year. If he is the revs lucky charm, the team is in trouble.
what about Kante in the middle with Llamosa I've been hearing about that duo all week in the papers. My ideal lineup would be: Brown Heaps Llamosa Kante Franchino Ralston Cullen Asad Griffiths Twellman Chacon - Of what I have seen of Shaker Asad as been good. Last game he played, he created a lot of good chances. - Griffiths should help us a lot on the left side of midfield. - Kante is 6' 2'' and has no difficulty winning 50-50 balls in the air he should improve the D a whole lot. - Adin Brown has played amazing everytime he's had the chance to play. - Chacon wants to play and will score if given the chance.