@gauchodan - who would your guess be at the top 16 teams that get a bye in the NCAA tournament as it stands now?
It's going to be pretty close to the top 16 RPI at the end of the season. One team currently outside the top 16 that will likely be a top 16 seed is Clemson.
Denver gets knocked out in penalty kicks by Kansas City. The Summit will be a 2-bid league this season.
Washington and Oregon State played to a 2-2 draw, making UCLA the outright final champion of the Pac-12. In addition, Washington failed to reach .500 and cannot be considered for the NCAA Tournament.
Friday morning update Syracuse (rpi 28, 8-4-7) -- lost in ACC semifinals Oregon State (29, 7-5-5) -- will finish 2nd in Pac-12 Denver (rpi 30, 11-2-5) -- lost in Summit semifinals Pittsburgh (rpi 32, 6-6-4) -- lost in ACC 1st round San Diego (rpi 33, 10-4-3) -- host Gonzaga, tied for WCC lead UIC (rpi 34, 11-5-3) -- lost in MVC semifinals Kentucky (rpi 35, 7-7-4) -- lost in SBC semifinals Saint Louis (rpi 36, 7-4-5) -- lost in A10 1st quarterfinals James Madison (rpi 37, 8-4-5) -- lost in SBC quarterfinals California (rpi 38, 7-5-5) -- visit Stanford, will finish 3rd or 4th in Pac-12 Xavier (rpi 39, 9-3-5) -- meet Georgetown in BEC championship Penn State (rpi 42, 10-3-5) -- meet Indiana in B10 championship Akron (rpi 44, 9-2-7) -- lost in BEC quarterfinals Fordham (rpi 46, 6-4-7) -- lost in A10 quarterfinals Loyola Chicago (rpi 48, 8-2-5) -- lost in A10 quarterfinals Yale (49, 8-5-3) -- meet Harvard in Ivy semifinals For every team below the cut line, a team above the cut line must be dropped. So if you believe Akron, for instance, deserves to be in the NCAA Tournament, make a case for someone else NOT to make the Tournament. I think Saint Louis will probably get bypassed. Kentucky is probably in based on their October play and significant wins vs. SBC powers. UIC is really good, but they may not have the resume of the others. USD can win its way into the field, but that just pushes sure-thing Portland onto this list. Pitt could be snubbed...they played a tough schedule but performed poorly against it. Denver, OSU and Syracuse are in. Below the line, Cal, Xavier, Penn State and Yale still have opportunities to improve their fate and/or grab their conference's auto bid. James Madison has a strong conference resume but questionable out-of-conference defeats. Akron chose to play a weak non-conference schedule this season and it may cost them an at-large bid. Fordham and Loyola Chicago will not move up after losing in the A10 quarters. There are still 3 potential bid stealers out there, all in conference championship matches: A10: Dayton (69) at VCU (25) CAA: Monmouth (61) at Hofstra (9) OVC: UIW (165) at SIUE (41)
San Diego's win last night gave the Toreros the WCC auto bid, eliminating potential bid stealer Santa Clara. The WCC will also be sending Portland and Loyola Marymount to the NCAA Tournament.
Both Ivy League semifinal matches were upsets seed-wise, pushing Penn onto the at-large list and below the cut line with an RPI of 46. Yale (rpi 44) is now the projected auto bid and only needs to get by Brown to get in.
Saturday morning update Charlotte (rpi 27, 11-3-1) -- meet SMU in AAC championship FIU (rpi 28, 9-4-4) -- lost in AAC 1st round Oregon State (29, 7-5-5) -- will finish 2nd in Pac-12 Denver (rpi 30, 11-2-5) -- drew (eliminated in SO) in Summit semifinals Pittsburgh (rpi 32, 6-6-4) -- lost in ACC 1st round UIC (rpi 34, 11-5-3) -- lost in MVC semifinals Kentucky (rpi 35, 7-7-4) -- lost in SBC semifinals Saint Louis (rpi 36, 7-4-5) -- drew (eliminated in SO) in A10 1st quarterfinals James Madison (rpi 37, 8-4-5) -- lost in SBC quarterfinals California (rpi 38, 7-5-5) -- visit Stanford, will finish 3rd or 4th in Pac-12 Xavier (rpi 39, 9-3-5) -- meet Georgetown in BEC championship Penn State (rpi 42, 10-3-5) -- meet Indiana in B10 championship Akron (rpi 43, 9-2-7) -- lost in BEC quarterfinals Penn (rpi 46, 7-3-6) -- drew (eliminated in SO) in Ivy semifinals Fordham (rpi 48, 6-4-7) -- lost in A10 quarterfinals Loyola Chicago (rpi 49, 8-2-5) -- drew (eliminated in SO) in A10 quarterfinals Again, remember that for any team below the cut line...to get them into the Tournament a team above the cut line must be left out. So, I went through and did a deep dive into metrics such as "last 8," non-conference RPI and strength, conference RPI and strength and records vs. Quad 1 and Quad 2 for all teams in the at-large column. These approximate most, but not all, of the primary criteria used by the Selection Committee. That combined metric dropped the following teams from above the cut line: Pittsburgh UIC Kentucky Saint Louis In their place, the metric elevated the following teams into the Tournament: James Madison Xavier Penn State Penn Penn is the absolute last team into the field, knocking out Kentucky, in my scenario. One positive for Kentucky is its 1-0-1 record vs. James Madison, one of my last 4 in. Two other teams below the cut line that did well in the metric were California and Akron. Cal can make a case for itself vs. Stanford today.
Hofstra and SIUE have won their auto bids, leaving Sunday's A10 title tilt as the only remaining obstacle for bubble teams everywhere.
Stanford scored in the 89th minute to beat cross-bay rival California. I think that is the nail in the coffin for the Bears, who are now 7-6-5 with an RPI on the wrong side of the cut line at 40 and a non-conference RPI of 45 (as of a week ago).
Xavier, one of the teams I was willing to move up from below the cut line, just grabbed the Big East auto bid. Georgetown will be an at-large selection.
VCU is clearly on the bubble. I have them as the last team into the field now. Might be good news for a Kentucky or Akron.
All of the games are done. Here are the 16 teams straddling the at-large cut line: Seattle (rpi 26, 12-3-3) Syracuse (rpi 27, 8-4-7) Oregon State (rpi 28, 7-5-5) FIU (rpi 29, 9-4-4) Pittsburgh (rpi 30, 6-6-4) Denver (rpi 31, 11-2-5) VCU (rpi 34, 7-6-5) Kentucky (rpi 35, 7-7-4) UIC (rpi 37, 11-5-3) James Madison (rpi 38, 8-4-5) Saint Louis (rpi 39, 7-4-5) Akron (rpi 41, 9-2-7) California (rpi 44, 7-6-5) Penn State (rpi 46, 10-4-5) Loyola Chicago (rpi 47, 8-2-5) Iona (rpi 48, 12-4-0) Re-applying my metric, Pitt and Kentucky miss. James Madison and Penn State would be chosen from below the cut line. That leaves one spot. Right now, Akron (below the line) and VCU (above the line) are tied for the final spot. I could see the Committee reaching down to get Akron and making VCU the 3rd team above the cut line to miss. If JMU misses, then Kentucky will be in.
My top 16 seeds (RPI) Marshall (1) Notre Dame (3) West Virginia (6) SMU (4) Georgetown (2) New Hampshire (7) Virginia (9) Bryant (11) UCF (12) Portland (10) Charlotte (14) Wake Forest (15) UCLA (18) Western Michigan (13) North Carolina (5) Seattle (26)
My 1st-round matchups Mercer (138) at Clemson (17) High Point (83) at Duke (20) LIU (87) at Hofstra (8) UC Irvine (70) at Stanford (19) Omaha (128) at Indiana (22) Dayton (61) at Denver (31) Green Bay (109) at SIUE (36) Boston U. (72) at Louisville (21) California Baptist (62) at San Diego (32) Yale (40) at Missouri State (16) Akron (41) at Memphis (25) Rider (71) at Loyola Marymount (23) James Madison (38) at Lipscomb (42) Penn State (46) at Vermont (24) Syracuse (27) at FIU (29) Xavier (33) at Oregon State (28)
B1G is down this year, but IU won the regular season and tournament and have only lost once since September. I'd be shocked if we're not seeded.
On similar reasoning I’d be very surprised if Penn State missed out entirely, down year for the B1G or not. 2nd in the regular season, 2nd in the conference tournament, with two narrow losses to (1st and 1st) Indiana. Just two other losses, though those weren’t great. Wouldn’t be an absolute shocker but certainly a big surprise.
Kentucky finished really strong and they beat Marshall, the presumptive top seed, on the road. Pitt did not finish strong but they played the nation's toughest schedule. I think that matters. I'm guessing both get in.
Unless Maryland is playing well its always seems to be Indiana and the midgets of the B10. Just 3 years ago only two teams had winning records in Indiana and Penn State. I have to wonder how many B10 teams even take men's soccer seriously. Even Maryland seems to have dropped off from their ACC days.
It looks good RPI-wise but too many flights in the first half. Teams that will probably fly in the first round. Omaha is probably going to Missouri State since it 350 miles and no flight.
Love all the work you do Gaucho! I think the committee would give the champion of the ACC a seed though. So perhaps using your 16 teams Clemson jumps in and Seattle drops out? I also wouldn’t be surprised if UCLA gets a top 8 seed now either.
@gauchodan , I don't know what we'd do without you. Legend in my book. Only 2 issues I have with top 16 is that Clemson winning the ACC tournament will very likely be a top 16 for me and I'd be shocked if Seattle get one being so low in RPI and jumping soo many schools that are also west coast. I also think Bryant played a very poor schedule and the committee will bounce them for it to bring in say a clemson into top 16...who knows though, again- great stuff @gauchodan