"Final 8" Nations League / Global Nations League

Had no idea this was a thing. I don't understand Infantino. He talks about exclusivity (i.e., limiting the occurrence of competitions) to give these competitions added importance and then goes ahead with his money grab routine of adding new plastic competitions to an already crowded football calendar. I hope they abandon these plans and do a better job across the federations of streamlining their competitions because the quality of international football isn't improving and arguably lagging behind the levels of club football, something that wasn't always true.

 

The are couple of reasons why 1998 World Cup saw more goals scored on average. For starters, the 1990 World Cup was thought as boring because it saw the fewest average of goals scored per game and FIFA wanted the World Cup to see more goals scored. As a result, FIFA introduced some rule changes concerning offsides and back passes that really allowed the game to open up more. Secondly, FIFA expanded the World Cup finals in 1998 which permitted more sides who might otherwise not have been good enough to qualify get a chance to compete.

The fact that teams have conceded fewer goals on average since 1998 isn't necessarily proof that the qualify of play has improved. I think it illustrates that international sides are afraid to lose, preferring to play in a manner that is more conservative and physically combative. That's why Portugal won Euro 2016 despite technically having drawn 6 of their 7 matches in regular time. That's why Russia beat Spain in 2018 despite having only one shot on goal (from the penalty spot), whereas Spain completed over 1000 passes and yet only scored once (through an own goal no less).

Of the teams from Africa, Asia, and North America, only the USA in 1930 and South Korea in 2002 have managed to reach the semi-finals of the World Cup. I don't think there is any reason to believe these feats will be replicated again in the foreseeable future.

As to why I think clubs are beginning to overshadow international football, there are couple of reasons. Clubs like Bayern, Barcelona, Real Madrid, PSG, and Juventus are too big for their respective leagues. Furthermore, all 20 clubs in the EPL are among the top 40 riches clubs in the world. We are talking about the biggest clubs in football and they are either looking to establish a breakaway league or the EPL will continue to grow and improve in a way that will swallow everything else in it's path. I don't think it's stretch to believe that we might not have a World Cup or Champions League football in the not so distant future, that FIFA will be reduced to the kind of status international basketball has with FIBA, while the EPL or a European super league will enjoy the kind of status enjoyed by the NBA.

 

Well the problem with basketball and baseball, even ice hockey to a degree, is Americans think their league winner is the "world champion". And the gap between the US and everybody else, in the former two sports at least, is much larger than anything we've ever seen or are likely to see in football.

It would be like if football was only the most popular sport in the UK and a handful of small continental European countries, and maybe a secondary sport in the rest of the continent and a few non-European nations. Under such a scenario perhaps winning the EPL would be regarded as the pinnacle of football, and England would not take the WC seriously (but still win most of the time).

The increasingly absurd amounts of money in club football and the resultant power and leverage of a handful of big clubs have definitely made a dent in the importance of the international game over the last few decades, but I still think the WC has enough cultural and historical significance at this point to hold its own. For the majority of fans worldwide, the WC is still the pinnacle of the sport, and it's still the entry point into the sport for most casuals. The FIBA WC or World Baseball Classic never had anything near that level of importance or prestige in the first place.

 

I think it's possible to argue the game has improved on the international level, but it's not an argument I strongly favor. There is still a very big gulf in quality between a handful of very strong countries in Europe and South America compared to the rest of the world.

The quality of the football played at the international level is arguably falling behind the football played often times at the club level. For example, the EPL and Bundesliga see a lot of end-to-end action, but it's really rare to watch a game at the World Cup like that.

The quality of the football at the World Cup tends to be risk adverse. Some teams make it a strategy to plays for penalties. This isn't just true of Costa Rica, Spain too played a very conservative brand of football in recent World Cups, including when they won in 2010, where all they did was keep possession without having much intent on the ball beyond securing a 1-0 result.

I would also argue that club football threatens to become the biggest show in town, so to speak. I don't think it's an exaggeration to see the EPL or a European super league become the equivalent of the NBA or NFL while every other form of competition in the sport sees less interest from both the players and fans. There's a real risk of that happening.

 

Both of those were greatly helped by how the knockout stage brackets worked out. For e.g. in 2014 we had 4 pretty strong CONMEBOL teams in one quadrant of the bracket while in another quadrant we had an okay Holland team with 3 Cinderella stories waiting to happen.

In the 2010 case that you highlighted all 4 teams in that Ghana quadrant were Cinderella stories waiting to happen. Thus it was inevitable that 1 would reach the semis, and as it happened the least remarkable of those 4 possible Cinderella stories ended up happening.

Pre-1998 it wasn't really possible to have brackets that looked like that since 17 or 18 of the 24 teams in the competition were UEFA or CONMEBOL. On top of that, almost all WCs were played in either Europe or South America. We still had some surprise stories but the conditions were such that reaching the quarters was SO much more difficult for teams outside these 2 regions. Frankly, I think what Nigeria did in 1994 and Cameroon before that was a lot more impressive than Ghana in 2010.

Hard to say if the ROW has improved in the last 20 years, but they haven't pulled off a Cameroon 1990 even once!

 

GNL would definately be another way of helping the non-UEFA/Conmebol teams too improve by having more contact with the two strongest continents.

I hope space can be found n the calendar to introduce it.

 

Surely Senegal 2002 deserves an honorable mention at least? Beat the defending champions just like Cameroon ‘90, and imo Sweden in 2002 was at least comparable to Colombia in 1990. Although I’ll grant their run was ended by a fairly average Turkey side, so advantage Cameroon ‘90 there.

 

Well, fairly average as far as WC semifinalists go. Had a fairly easy knockout bracket (which wasn't their problem; fair play to them for taking full advantage), and did nothing after that WC to suggest they were actually a top-tier side. A good squad with some big names, but ultimately just another middling smaller European side with the occasional good performance.

Good point. Costa Rica made its own luck by beating the bigger teams in the group stage. Ghana 2010 could be considered a little more lucky, since no one would have expected that USA team to finish ahead of England.

 

True, Costa Rica made their own luck. I still rate what Cameroon did in 1990 as more impressive because they advanced by winning, not through PKs. Their group was also at least as tough as Costa Rica's so they also earned some luck, except they didn't get it - drawing a very strong Colombia side in the R16.

 

To get back on topic, indeed I would much prefer a Global NL than the awful new CWC format being proposed.

I would split AFC into a West and East section for the purposes of the NL to reduce travel and make it easier to arrive at a final 8.

Not sure if an OFC NL is feasible. Huge distances involved and countries don't have big budgets. Maybe just arrange it so that the OFC champion qualifies for the GNL.

Also, not sure how a CONMEBOL NL would work with only 10 members. I'm thinking the least-bad format is to have one group with the top 4 teams, then a B and C group with 3 teams each. The winner of the 4 team group qualifies for the GNL, and of course you have relegation/promotion between groups A&B and B&C.

So that's 7 teams. Where to get the 8th team? One could add the host nation but that's really dumb. Maybe add a 2nd team on a rotating basis from one of the 4 other confederations (CONCACAF, CONMEBOL, UEFA and CAF). Then FIFA selects the host among the 8 qualified nations.

 

The thing that makes the World Cup/Euros standout from club football is the simple fact as a country you can't buy success like Real/Barcelona/Bayern etc. do.
You have to make the best of what you got.
Your standing as a soccernation is the result from what you as a country do. '
Not because of what you spend on players, like clubs do.
Achievements from countries are indeed achievements made by that country, not made by the size of wallets.
That's why WC's/Euros will be ahead of any club achievements and have the greatest appeal around the world.

 

So true! I agree!

 

Well, you could copy what the Confeds Cup used to do and include the latest WC winner.

Alternately, if you want to keep the GNL completely separate from the WC, you could include the winner of the last GNL. Kind of like how the CL still used to include the holders back when only league winners qualified. I think I like that better. Obviously it wouldn’t work for the first edition, but for the second edition onwards that would be the 8th team sorted.

Although honestly this proposal sounds a lot like the Confeds Cup... the original FIFA proposal had 3 from UEFA and 2 from CONMEBOL, with no OFC representation at all. The problem with that though is you're probably left with all UEFA/CONMEBOL teams from the semis onwards, so it just feels like a mini-WC and kind of redundant.

 

For suspense maybe have an unseeded draw .

 

Yeah, that is probably the best way to reach 8 teams. I was just trying to think of a method where nobody is guaranteed a spot in the GNL before their regional NL even begins. Could also mean a relegated NT ends up playing in the GNL but I guess these are minor issues.

(Another way could be to give the Confederation that the winner of the GNL plays in an extra spot. Kind of a sneaky way to get more top teams in the final 8)