I'm not 100% sure but I remember being satisfied it was the case on the basis of the 47% credited to both teams for a 0-0 tie and the wording from FIFA somewhere. With you doing exact calculations game by game, I guess we'll know for sure next Friday!
Late response, but here's the wording from the official PDF linked on the ranking procedure page: "The “actual result” value is represented by a percentage extrapolated from the goal difference of the match and the number of goals scored by the losing team. This means that the opponent is awarded the remainder of the points – except for a draw (goal difference equal to 0), when both teams receive the same number of percentage points."
Ranking are up 1. Spain 2. England +2 3. France 4. USA -2 5. Germany +1 6. Sweden -1 7. Japan +1 8. Netherlands -1 9. Canada +1 10. Brazil +1 The Mexico defeat hurt the USA a lot
193 teams ranked is a new record with Iraq (172nd) now joining the World Ranking. That figure could be eclipsed in June, with six more teams just one official match away from joining, namely Chad, Djibouti, Eritrea, Gibraltar, Libya, and Sudan.
Not enough Would a draw between USA and Brazil been enough to get Germany ahead of USA and Brazil ahead of Canada?
According to what @lil_one wrote in the previous page of this thread, the last time was... today. i.e., since this is the first time, it's also currently the last time, so far.
My ranking is available now Will open my own thread for that though but here it is: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-O_MJQcN3WShMH5ULUnl6LliiydraaQGg1zBkTD4OfQ/edit?usp=sharing
In my ranking it made the USA drop from 4th to 5th Sweden stand out as underrated to me. I have them still a comfortable 3rd. They have been very consistent whenever it mattered and I didn't punish them much for their Nations League campaign given that two of three losses came against what we all consider by some margin the best team in the world, right?
Perspective: the gap between Spain and England (1v2, ~65pts) is much larger than the gap between England and Japan (2v7, ~39pts) and just a hair smaller than England to Netherlands (2v8, ~70pts)
i learnt and finally understood something today ! I come back on the Gold Cup final, a draw USA 2 - 2 Canada where i have calculated +10,39 pts for Canada and -9,49 pts for USA, while FIFA gave respectively +5,88 pts and -4,98 pts, i didn't understand why. The same result occured in the SBC final, draw USA 2 - 2 Canada, and the same questions for me. So i looked for an explanation and bingo, thanks to Cambio de Juego, i found it. it seems that when there is a penalty shoutout after a draw, for example 2 -2 so normally a result 51% for the 2 teams, FIFA counts a flat rate of 10% points, + 10 for the winner, -10 for the looser. So the real result is 61% for USA and 41 % for canada instead of 51% both. For an unknown reason, Fifa has not communicated on this rule. Does anyone know that, is it a new rule ? From 3"51 on this video PS : the last ranking, France 2nd for the first time, not sure it will last when france will meet Englang next may Termina la Fecha FIFA y tenemos movimientos en el Ranking FIFA. En total se jugaron 79 partidos, la gran mayoría (50) en la eliminatoria para la Euro.Hubo 25 amistosos, aunque seguramente algunos no contarán. FIFA no explica sus criterios así que de momento los incluyo todos. pic.twitter.com/1M0fD8NYMQ— Cambio de Juego (@_cambiodejuego) April 10, 2024
And as it seems that Cambio de Juego is efficient, credible, and very responsive, no need to calculate the points yourself Tkanks you Lechus7 for introducing us to this site
That's... wild, I've definitely never heard it communicated before. And I do believe it's new, b/c I remember doing calcs for previous tournaments where that didn't seem to be the case, i.e. draws decided by PKSO used to demonstrably just be draws in the calcs.
USA needs to get their act together. Lowest ranking ever. Watch them get eliminated in the first round in the Olympics.
Yeah, It's hard to believe that USWNT will drop any points against Zambia. In worst case scenario win vs. Zambia alone could see them limp over to QF... while one more point vs. either Germany or Australia will most likely gurantee it.
I kinda expected this, if only based on what the international calendar has done since the last ranking. Notice that the USA dropped a rank while actually gaining points for the first time in several releases. (The last time they gained points was the March 2023 release.) The issue since the last release is that the USA has only been playing friendlies at home while the teams around them have been playing home-and-away qualifying matches, letting GER pass them based largely on match weighting alone. Again, look at rating not ranking if you're talking about expected performance. Teams 2-6 are routinely swapping places with each other over the past few releases as they're all currently within just 35pts of each other. A team in the top six in the world is still essentially a shoe-in for getting out of the Olympic group stages, and highly likely to make the SFs especially with two top-six teams - ENG and (USA's bogey team) SWE - not even qualified, though that obviously depends on whether there are any QF pairs between top-six teams.
To lesser extent the same goes for Germany after a loss against Iceland. Spain and Germany already qualified to EURO's and will play in OG starting in two weeks. For that reason alone I wouldn't read to much into result of those 2 matches.
My back-of-the-envelope calculations show Spain (published rating 2100) dropping about 21 points against Czechia (rating 1665). Since the match was played in Czechia, the effective rating difference was 435 -100 (for the homefield advantage) = 335, which corresponds roughly to an expected win probability of (.87) A match like this helps illustrate how tough it is for a team to reach the pinnacles of a 2100 rating or 2200 rating. Mishaps like these can happen, especially when, as @Lechus7 points out, Spain already qualified for the Euros and therefore didn't have much to gain from the match And the ratings incorporate these upsets, which then helps explain why results which may seem improbable are far from impossible and do in fact occur. *** My back-of-the-envelope calculation shows Germany (published rating 2018) losing about 17 points for their loss away to Iceland (1854) *** ADD - I gotta say, heck of an accomplishment for Czechia, to knock off the #1 team in the world, though, if I recall, they tied the US a few years back when the US was #1. Win and a tie against #1 rated teams — not bad!