Rankings of the teams in Nations League finals Spain 2066,05 France 2021,69 Germany 1987,25 Netherlands 1986,84 So Germany and Netherlands are practically on the same level. Which team is expected to more likely qualify for the Olympic Games based on World Rankings? Germany because they have two chances or Netherlands because they would have the home advantage in a third place match?
Definitely wild swings.... Now we wait and see if the next NL still has weight 3x (same competition, same wight) or 2x (same comp but as a continentals qualification) Also major props to Italy as being one of the few nations to actually rise in the rankings (in a hugely competitive section of the rankings to boot) despite the reintroduction of North Korea above them. And now we're back to having the large gap between the top tier and the second tier exist at the 11/12 break instead of the 10/11 break. We've been here before, and it's *really* rude to whichever team is in 11th as they miss out on that 2x friendly multiplier Yeah, I don't think I've ever seen that even in the men's rankings... drops of 2 aren't uncommon, and I think I've even seen a 3 drop before, but 4? That's just wild. And, at least to me, very satisfying. Somewhat makes up for the fact that USWNT were the first team ever to have a 2 drop in the women's rankings, as before that it had just been single-place shifts back and forth between USA and Germany. I guess having nothing but single-place drops at the top before suddenly getting a 2 drop and then a 4 drop back to back might simply be a sign that the women's rankings are just gonna be more volatile for a while. Granted, if North Korea hadn't joined back in, you'd have 8 no-movement teams in the top 16, so maybe the recent shifts at the top are more of a fluke? IDK... I guess that margin between Germany and Netherlands is scarily tight and could've actually been a shift with one more goal in Netherlands' favor somewhere.
Missed this earlier! But yeah, I guess it makes sense since only NL A teams can make the Olympics. Which means the answer to this: ...is that 2x or 3x actually depends on which league and which cycle you're currently in... which I guess makes the most sense? Variability is nonetheless weird though.
That's a good question!! And my back-of-the-envelope calculations (which could easily be wrong in this case) seem to show that Netherlands' potential home advantage ever-so-slightly outweighs the fact that Germany is guaranteed two cracks at qualification! I have Netherlands with a 57% chance of qualifying for the Olympics, Germany with a 55% chance — and Spain with an 88% chance. The figures for Netherlands and Germany could easily be reversed because of the rounding-off I did on the back-of-the-envelope, but my initial assumption that Germany clearly gained the advantage in the draw over Netherlands appears to be wrong!
Did we ever decide what the multiplier was for the CONCACAF W Gold Cup? If it's 3X (as a Continental Final) then my back-of-the-envelope calculations show the US losing (and Mexico gaining) about 40 points after Mexico's 2-0 victory last night. That would place the US behind France and England — and not too far ahead of Sweden And did we decide the multiplier for Nations League "A" league games was 3X, while the multiplier for Leagues B and C was 2X? And most important of all, did we ever decide on German or Italian for the opera we're commissioning from Mozart? At 4'34 of the YouTube clip
I'm guessing the W Gold Cup only has a 2x multiplier since it's not a qualifier for anything and it's not the official continental championship And yes for UEFA, 3A 2B 2C - this time around at least
What's the lowest point USWNT has ever reached since FIFA rankings exist? And is it likely that they are going to have their negative record soon?
That's easy to answer: the lowest the US has ever reached is #3 after last year's WWC. Other than that one quarter, they've always been ranked #1 or #2. On their current trajectory, they could definitely drop below that.
I think it is an official continental championship FIFA gave it the full status in term of player release. US WNT players from example arrived on 12th for the 20th tournament start, while the other tournament in that window saw the players arrive mainly on Sunday 18.
If it s an official continental competition, it means a coeff X3. But as some Comebol countries are invited, it could be unfair for the other comebol countries who have only the Copa America (X3) to get FIFA points. It s also unfait for some concacaf countries who normally don t have to fight against stronger "foreign" countries. Concacaf Gold Cup in not Concacaf championship nor Comebol championship (Copa america) which both happend every 4 years (last in 2022). Even X2 is doubtful for me, Concacaf Gold Cup is not a qualification tournament for continental championship... the answer in march 15
Yeah, the invitee nature is one of two main points suggesting it's not treated as a continental championship. The other is that Concacaf treats it as en entirely separate competition to the recognized W Championship. I guess it's possible that Concacaf has two different continental women's championships, but that seems very weird and, IIRC, is unprecedented. Also could be moot depending on future results if the USWNT recovers and spits out three knockout runs. Wouldn't end up with a net growth in points, but would mitigate most of the points loss to date.
I thought I'd read that a couple places in regards to the FIFA window. For example from another BigSoccer thread — If so... then the US lost (and Mexico gained) about 40 points a couple nights ago
By the way, the next Euro qualifiers via the Nations League should be x3 for all: 8 teams from League A qualify directly and then Teams from League A,B and C go into play-offs for the 7 remaining spots. Unless FIFA makes it League A x3, League B and C x2 and play-off games x3...
It's definitely an official CONCACAF tournament, but I don't think that clarifies if it has a match importance factor of 2 or 3. My guess would be x3, but I could see it going either way as the CONCACAF WWC qualifying tournament gets labelled as the continental championship.
USA advanced to the final of the CONCACAF Gold Cup at the penalty shootout, but the final score of the semifinal vs Canada was anyway a draw: are they consequently supposed to lose points from that?
Yes. almost 4 points, weight X1 USA lost points in all its five gold cup matches, total around 19 pts (X1) New ranking for the Euro and the Asian countries in the top 10, we will have something around that : Spain 2086 (+20) England 2021 (+7) France 2018 (-3) Germany 2005 (+18) Sweden 1997 (-1) Japan 1985.5 (+7.5) Netherland 1952 (-35) DPRK 1943 (-7.5) There s still one match in the Gold Cup. USA, currently 2045, could stay second, or go down to the fourth, fifth, sixth place, depending on the weight of the matches (and the result of the last match). There is a musical chairs game for the 9th and 10th place between Canada, DPRK and Brazil
Yes. My back-of-the-envelope calculations shows the US lost 9 or 10 points based on a multiplier of 3X. If it's counted only as a friendly (I seriously doubt that; I think it must count as at least 2X), then I think kribi's estimate of -4 is about right
Almost right except for few details It seems that this site and me use the same type of calcul (because "we" get same results for Spain, Germany, England France etc...), however some results are strange. I don't understand where certain numbers come from or why they are counted positive instead of negative. it's not very important, but weird And when i look the new board of Cambio de Juego with the results of gold cup semi finals; it confirms my little doubts 🇺🇸 Estados Unidos venció a Canadá en penales pero pierde puntos porque la fórmula esperaba triunfo en 90 o 120 minutos. Con eso, caen detrás de 🇩🇪 Alemania en el Ranking FIFA y por ahora bajan al bombo 2 de los Juegos Olímpicos.Deben vencer a 🇧🇷 Brasil para volver al 1. pic.twitter.com/bikHYiDi67— Cambio de Juego (@_cambiodejuego) March 7, 2024 The results -4.98 pts for USA and +5.88 for Canada are totally incomprehensible. Even if i take the numbers of Cambio before the semi, for USA 2109.66 (2009.66 + 100) and for Canada 1945.01, the calcul gives an expected win of 27.9% for Canada. They did 51% with the 2-2 draw. So (23.1 x 15 x 3) /100 = 10,39 pts, positive for Canada, negative for USA (and if it was only X1, 3.46 pts, and X2 6.92 pts, so nothing like -4.98 and + 5.88 Edit ; the numbers for Brazil are also a little doubtful
One small thing — the "absolute numbers" for Canada & USA won't be exactly the same on a 2-2 tie, with one being a positive number and the other being its exact mirror opposite on the negative side. On a 2-2 tie, both teams are credited with achieving a (.51) game result, if I recall, as opposed to one team being credited with (.51) and the other team (.49)
Ha ok, i didn't know. I knew that was 47% both team for a 0-0 tie, 50% both for a 1-1 tie. but i thought it was different from the 2-2 tie : 51/49, 52/48, 53/47 ... So, Canada +10.39, and USA - 9.49 ?