Pre-match: FC Dallas - San Jose Earthquakes (Saturday, 10/7) pregame thread

Dallas can leapfrog us into the playoffs with a win, so they're going to be super-motivated. In fact, given they have a game in hand they are already ahead of us wrt PPG. Forgive me, but I wouldn't mind seeing Hoppe start at striker and have Jebo rotate in later for this game. It would give the Dallas D something different to think about.

However, I fully expect Luchi to go into this game with a conservative, "let's go for the 0-0 draw" mentality, because I've seen nothing so far to indicate he is moving off that approach.

 

Dallas will likely be ahead of us by the time our game with them is played because they play CO on Wednesday at home.

 

Good - because that won't allow Luchi the luxury of retreating into his defensive shell!

 

On the postgame Luchi was talking about the Minnesota game as “an important road point”. Well, I guess - it’s much better than a loss, but at this point in the season and given where we are, should we still be talking about “important road points”? Are we gonna “important road point” our way right out of the playoffs?

 

Did @Mark bite you? Have you been infected?

I see the odds still seem to favor us getting into the playoffs (~80%), but those things are so full of shit anyway I rarely put any faith in them.

 

Oh I’ve got my cynical side - no need for @markmcf8 for that . Yes we are in the “probably” make it category and a tie in Dallas wouldn’t be bad but then we’re gonna have to beat Austin on Decision Day. They may be eliminated by then which may not necessarily be a good thing. They may play loose and happy while we could be tight as a drum.

 

With Skahan back in the picture and Hoppe in the picture, with the possibility that he plays in the center, and Luchi mixing things up in the midfield, the number of degrees of freedom in terms of lineup choice is pretty overwhelming. I don't think Luchi will go back to the 3-5-2 in the 2 remaining games. So I think it's between the 4-3-3 or the 4-4-2 that we played at the end of the Minnesota game.

So here are some of the questions Luchi has to resolve, with just 2 games remaining, and those decisions will determine whether or not we make the playoffs. Best of luck, Luchi!

- Who starts in midfield?: Luchi has shown a willingness to sit Gruezo, and I think the results were pretty good in Minnesota and have been good the few other times he's been off the field. Then who plays attacking mid in a 4-3-3? Really, of Niko, Monteiro, and Skahan, Skahan has shown the best form in limited minutes. So you could give him that role and push Monteiro back to more of an 8 (my preference - Skahan-Monteiro-Yueill), or you could sit both Monteiro and Gruezo and go Yueill-Niko-Skahan - the least experienced trio, or you could go back to Yueill with Gruezo together with Skahan. But really you've got 5 guys now in the running for 3 spots in the 4-3-3.

Or if you go with the 4-4-2 you could play a more conservative 2 CM pairing like Gruezo and Yueill like we did at the end of the Minnesota game. I think we'd tend to get overrun in midfield but it's another option. Or Yueill with one of Niko, Skahan, and Monteiro.

- Left side attacker: We could stick with Cade or keep playing Hoppe there with the expectation that he drifts in a lot (I thought he looked pretty decent out there against Minnesota), or play Skahan there as he's had some pretty good minutes there. With Cade it's always about the potential, but at this point in the season, potential is not going to cut it. With the season on the line and needing a goal, do we want Cade driving into the box with the ball?

- Forward - we could start Hoppe in place of Jebo (don't think it will happen), or if it's 2 forwards, it could be any combination of Jebo, Hoppe, and Skahan.

- Left back - Trauco is a great passer and works us out of a lot of jams on the press, and has that nice bomb of a shot but is a liability on defense. Marie is a bit better on defense and I think, due to his mobility, pairs better offensively with a guy like Hoppe when Hoppe is on the left.

CB - Well, Rodrigues is a given but then do you go with Mensah or Beason. This one is kind of 6 of one, half a dozen of the other to me, but I think Luchi needs to make a call on this and stick with it for the last 2 games.

 

4-4-3? Is Daniel a defender or midfielder in that formation????

 

Oops, well, we need to look for any advantage we can get!

 

I’m betting Daniel would be a damn good mf.

 

Daniel at MF, Rodrigues at CF, where he really wants to play. Let's do it!

 

Dallas has tied their last three games against good teams and beat RSL. We are going to lose this one unless we came out with a 1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1 formation, Dallas falls over laughing, and we score a couple of goals before they can recover. Who am I kidding...we would sit back with a 2-0 lead and manage the game only to give up a couple of goals We lose on a last minute goal when Beason passes the ball into the goal.

 

Another road point in Dallas probably secures a playoff berth.

 

It may in reality but we'd be pretty susceptible to falling out. We'd wind up with 43 points minimum, LAG has a possible 47 left, Minnesota a possible 47, SKC with a possible 44, and Austin with a possible 44.

A tie in Dallas and a win against Austin would give us 46 points, and we'd be clear of everyone but LAG and Minnesota, both of whom would have to win out (4 games remaining for LA and 3 for Minnesota).

Here's how it looks right now. Our most likely destination is 9th, and we have a 20% chance of missing the playoffs altogether. This is based on just calculating who plays whom I think weighted on current record. It's not great because I don't think it accounts for home vs. road form. Dallas finishes the season with 3 home games so I think their probabilities should be higher (which would make ours a little lower as a result).

 

None of those teams appear good enough to win out.

 

Probably true, especially since these days - the dog days of MLS and ultra-parity, most games end in ties it seems.

 

Here's the lineup I'd play for the next 2 games for the best chance to win, given who's available. This is about getting the best attacking players on the field at the same time even if the positions aren't always a great fit.

--------------------------Hoppe----------
--------------------------Jebo-------------------
Skahan-----Monteiro----Yueill------Espinoza
Marie------Rodrigues-----Mensah--Akapo

Skahan on the outside is not great but he's done pretty well there, and it gives him a spot when we have 2 forwards and 2 CM's. Monteiro has to play more like a pure 8 role vs. what he's doing now which is kind of an 8/10. Leave the center channel for (mostly) Jebo to run between the lines since he likes to play deep anyway and IMO is good at that deep holdup, turn and run role.

We have one less midfielder but with Jebo playing his usually deeper role in the center I think it will be OK. It's the trade-off we have to make to get Hoppe more centrally positioned. You can look at it as a 4-4-2 with Jebo playing the deeper role or a 4-4-1-1.

Marie for Trauco is a tough call because Trauco's so good at helping us beat the press and his passing and shooting are really good, but he's also susceptible on defense, and we're going for speed and attack here over finesse. We're not going to win by out-finessing any team, Trauco aside. Mensah vs. Beason also a tough call and I could go either way on that one.

 

This is MLS, FCKD are likely to beat us in Dallass. Then we’ll need to beat FC Broccoli in our house and get a couple of other matches to go our way.

I’m not at all optimistic that we make the playoffs. It’s going to be touch and go.

I won’t be able to watch live Saturday night because I’ll be at a concert.

Go Quakes!!

 

MLS is such a stupid league. When nine of 14 teams make the playoffs, why even bother with a regular season?

 

Agreed, the top 4, at most, should enter the playoffs. It's idiotic to think that a ninth-place team should make the post-season.