Okay, we know that San Jose is a definite for 2008. That has some immediate implications for the current 13 MLS teams: there will be an expansion draft and they'll have to expose players. I'm thinking that b/c of the rules that limit the number of SI's that can be exposed (so teams could just put players like Sergio Galvan Rey on their exposed list), there will need to be some changes for TFC (otherwise, they'd be forced to expose all of their Canadians). And the presence of DPs adds a new wrinkle--you have to wonder if teams will prohibit a team from exposing a DP in the expansion draft. But then we likely have expansion the year after and likely the year after that. Which means that it will be difficult for teams to stockpile talent (ie: someone like a Mulrooney). Guys who get drafted high and don't earn starting spots (but show potential) could end up being exposed (assuming a team protects their best 11-12 players). Additionally, if another expansion team (say...Seattle) doesn't join SJ for 2008, I think it's obviously better to be the only expansion team in a given year (b/c you don't have to split the talent with a second team and thus have the options to do more detals--like TFC did to get Ronnie O'Brien).
wait so what you are telling me is that there is a good chance that there will be a dilution of talent with expansion? REALLY? REALLY?
Up until about the time of this year's All-Star Game, Don Garber's stated plan (dated to 2006?) was 16 teams in 2010, followed by a break for a few years to stabilize the league. I still think this is a good plan, even though Garber was quoted in July as revising the expansion options to 18 teams in 2012. Even more important than the prospect of diluting talent in expansion is the probability that significant numbers of MLS players will be unavailable for two months or so in the heart of the 2010 season for that year's World Cup, especially since Canada and/or four CONCACAF teams could qualify. 16 teams is still a pretty good number to have, though, since that means 30 games in a home-and-away single-table format, is just about the size of European leagues, and conceivably has a sufficient geographic footprint to boost the league's national status.
When I think of Garber's plans for 18 teams, I shudder at the thought. Sure, I'd like a team in NYC, so I don't have to trek out to NJ, but I want to see a quality side. What's the point of the expansion, if the talent level is not up to snuff. I'm not saying that MLS shouldn't expand, I'm just very wary. I may sound like an old goat, but I remember when the NBA had a 16 teams. Each team had from 1-4 superstars. They weren't all great, but there was enough to get excited about. My question would be, on the average MLS team, what sort of quality would be the minimum for expansion to proceed without hurting the product? On each team, how many world class players do you need? how many All-american players? how many "potential" or "developmental" players? How many lunch pail types (ie,Kovalenko)? If you find enough #10's, then alot of the blemishes get hidden? Can MLS replicate Gomez, DeRosario, Beckham, LD, Schelotto, Blanco and Toja? Don't misunderstand. I like Edu, Grabavoy and McCarty. But these players are not growing on trees. Look at RBNY as a perfect example. They have Angel, Altidore, Kovalenko and some sturdy guys like Stammler and Parke, but no #10 (sorry, Cleatus, you're not in there every day). It makes it a bit less than pleasing to the eye to watch this team manufacture opportunites. I would much rather watch games like Dallas-Columbus the other day than to see my RBNY plod around the field. Rant over.
No, I believe there won't be a dilution of talent and that wasn't what my post was saying. The pool of domestic talent keeps getting bigger and deeper. And MLS can just add more foreign slots. And if the Canadian pipeline gets going than that changes the equation a lot. This isn't about just adding more teams, my question had to do with the nature of the expansion talent dispersal process in MLS and what impact that is likely to have on teams. I think where a reasonable argument for dilution of talent would be made is under the following scenarios: --the league doesn't expand the number of SI slots (to allow 5 per team) --the number of foreign players getting greencards after having played in MLS for a number of years doesn't continue to increase --we don't see a continuing growth in talent at the U17 and college levels --it's a WC year and both the USA and Canada qualify Yeah, given 2 or more of those scenarios and I'd see talent dilution. But if MLS allows one more SI slot, or more greencards are given to talent that has settled here (like DeRosario) or MLS adds another DP slot to each team, or a couple of kids who would have gone overseas (like Davies or Nguyen or Simek) decide to stay home...than I don't see a talent dilution issue. Nor was that the intent behind starting this thread. Instead, I'm thinking about what the expansion implications are (separate from overall league talent) for teams. 1. I think it will be harder for teams to stockpile talent. Take DC United for instance. DCU will probably have to expose Moreno and Gomez (who's contract is up and he hasn't signed a new contract offered by DC United). If they do that, it would allow them to protect some critical reserves like Clyde Simms and Josh Gros and Rod Dyachenko. But if they protect those players than they end up being exposed the next year in the expansion draft. The Crew have stockpiled a lot of good young talent this year so they'd probably have to expose someone like Robbie Rogers. More specifically, I think it will be very hard for teams to keep the #12, #13, #14 players. Even if they're protected for the 2008 expansion, then the 2009 expansion likely rolls around. So teams are more likely to see a lot of turnover at key reserve spots. Doesn't mean they won't have talent there, just that it won't be the same talent each year. It also means that if a player has an off-year (say....Albright) it's harder for a team to give him another shot the next year--he's more likely to be exposed in the expansion draft. 2. If the rules don't change, than TFC is going to face some very weird situations. I know for the RSL/Chivas expansion, teams were limited in the number of SI's they could expose. But for TFC, they've got extra SI's. 3. Teams with players who may retire (Onstad) or go to Europe (Altidore) will be faced with some tough choices about who to protect. That's probably always been the case. 4. MLS will have to do something about DPs. In a scenario where NYRB doesn't have a good season and Arena is fired, I could see NYRB putting Reyna on their unprotected list. But the reality is that putting DPs on unprotected lists probably isn't something the league would like to see (b/c not too many teams are likely to want to claim DPs--especially if the interpretation is "once a DP, always a DP").
Do you actually read what you type? If anything expansion tends to lower the impact, on a per team basis, the loss of players to national team duty.
Expanding to 18 teams by 2012 is too much too quick. Just the thought of having 5 teams added in the next 5 years seems worrisome. That would mean 3-5 expansion drafts in the next five years...most MLS teams are crippled after only a few injuries! Adding 1 more SI slot won't do much to smooth over the problem. Adding a couple of SYI slots might help, since we seem to be attracting a bit more young foreign talent these days. If MLS starts considering Canadians and Americans as domestic players, then that would help a lot, but I suspect this may violate some sort of FIFA rule. In the end the only real solution is decrease the rate at which expansion teams enter the league. It seems an inevitability that we'll have 16 by 2010, but wait until 2014 (at the earliest) to expand to 18 teams!
There will always be an increase or decrease in talent when expanding or contracting. On a statistical scale, there would be variations in the quantitative figures. Of course, for those figures, soccer isn't baseball. And Reyna will retire, especially if exposed. News: San Jose expansion, Garber's stated expansion policy. Do you need a link? Have you not heard? Jade even gave a link to piece. Analysis: Talent dillution, Possible conflicts, Special case maybe for TFC, expansion draft strategy and processes Your imput: poor and lacking.
As much hating on BS about Jim Rome... and we have our on set of drones. Or whatever he calls his peanut gallery.
What has been covered in this thread that hasn't been covered in many, many, many threads before? Nothing. This is decent expansion forum material (merged with another thread that ALREADY talks about this), but News and Analysis? No. EDIT: Looks like this has already been moved to MLS: General. Good call