Of course, the Pierce/Cancela rumor could mean that Nicol really wants to keep Howey around. Can't say I've seen enough of him to know if that'd be sensible. (Steven Goff is a copycat. )
Reports are starting to emerge. http://www.bradenton.com/mld/bradenton/sports/10197980.htm Galaxy news has Broome, Popik, Torres, and Saragosa are listed as the unprotected players. [I had Cobi instead of Saragosa, but the news story explains that Saragosa is relatively safe due to his high transfer fee.] Big Apple Soccer reports that it'll be Walker, Wells, Vaca, Brenes, Galván Rey, Ziadie, and Regan for the Metros. [I had Leitch and Lisi instead of Vaca and Brenes.] http://www.bigapplesoccer.com/article.php?article_id=1526
I can't imagine any team wanting Galvan Rey's maximum salary. Chivas probably will take Torres. But after that, they definitely should take Saragosa. Even if he won't be re-loaned, it'll knock out one of the most talented starters off their rival's lineup. I'd probably take Saragosa before most anyone (defintely all those listed for LA). MLS is viewed in the eyes of the world as one team, so I don't think any contract can specifically be biased towards the Galaxy. Sao Paulo can say they won't make a future move if he's on another team, but the current contract likely can't call Galaxy a "team" - cause otherwise wouldn't international transfer windows start to apply to player movement between MLS squads? And since when do teams take players without options to buy (obvious answer Donovan)?
Expansion drafts are about building value, not getting the stars. Brenes and Wells are more likely targets than Walker and SGR, for example.
Rumors have been circulating for the past day about Thornton from the Fire will be traded to Metrostars so they could expose Walker in which he'd get picked up by Chivas. Walker to Chivas is pretty much complete.
for NE the basic difference I had was Baker (thought leaving) for Pierce (going by the 12 I listed protected, I screwed up and listed Cancela & Leonard again as unprotected). Judging by the SI rules, leaving both Howey and Baker unprotected was illegal and I realized that shortly after posting. But of the 13 then protected (12 I listed + Baker) I wouldn't have guessed Pierce as the 1 left out. Sure he's out of contract and had an injury, but I would've picked Leonard or Heaps as more likely to be left out. again for MET, I put 2 SI's on the unprotected list at first (predicting trade or something to rid SGR yesterday) so I think my sub for Bonseu was Wells. Leitch and Lisi were my incorrect picks over Walker and Brenes. I guess this is one way to dump Walker's salary space. I think they'll be disappointed if Thornton is supposed to be a big improvement (big is the operable word). With Guevera, Lisi, Clark, I guessed they'd move Lisi. I'm guessing Brenes will be drafted though they might can pull him back if Walker is picked first. For LA I predicted Moreno and Vagenas over Saragosa and Broome. I think Broome will be drafted. Still don't get Vagenas. Seems a little unfair to expose Saragosa and state that Sao Paulo will only re-loan him if not drafted.
With seven teams in the books, the perfect 12-12 prediction continues to be elusive. Every list but Colorado's included at least a mild surprise, and it was a crapshoot to guess which Rapids SI would be shown the door. The team I support -- San José -- was my worst prediction (joint with KC), with three names incorrect. Like every fan, I see this as a sign of managerial incompetence; in this case, however, I'm convinced I'm right. (Ok, that's also true of every fan.) They did have better options, though. KC's Simutenkov is probably one of the better decisions that swed and I both missed. Among the Wizards' SI's, he's probably the highest paid by far, and unlike the other two, there's actually a chance they could off-load him.
Here's a different questions: what teams are likely to see a bunch of players selected? I think we're looking at basically 3 classes of teams that would fall into this category: 1. Teams with multiple SI's they'd like to dump (Metro is a good example) and can only expose one. Thus, they're forced to expose good players instead of someone like Bonseu. NE and Colorado may also fall into this category. 2. DCU. Teams that win championships do so for a lot of reasons. At least one is that almost everyone on the team plays well (including some people having career years or playing over their heads). Thus, everyone has had a good luck at the players (there season was longer and ultimately on a national stage) and the players across the roster looked good. Case in point: Troy Perkins (reserve GK) started half the season. He may be about the equal of or lesser than Matt Jordan or DJ Countess or Scott Garlick. But he had a good season and got more exposure than 2 of the 3 I just mentioned and might get picked just for that reason. Mike Petke is another example--a weak season by his standards but he ended it playing well and on a big stage. It also doesn't help DCU that Chivas-USA's coach (Thomas Rongen) saw most of the DCU games and did color commentary on cable for DCU games--so he's likely extremely familiar with exposed players like Quintanilla and Martins. KC might fall into this category: b/c of injuries to Preki and Klein, other "bit" players got more PT and exposure than they normally would have--and on a big stage as well. 3. Chicago and Dallas--the same result but for different reasons. Chicago had the biggest influx of rookie talent of any MLS team: more draft picks in the first 2 rounds of 2004 than any other in MLS. Dallas also had a lot of picks--but Colin Clarke went with veterans for the most part. Now both teams have a lot of young players who just didn't get it done last year--either b/c they played poorly (in Chicago's case) or b/c they didn't play (in Dallas' case). And yes, I know I'm generalizing. The dilemma for both teams: do you protect players who have potential but didn't show they can contribute to the team--especially when you have to figure that the expansion teams will jump at guys like Buete, Pause or Rhine? Or do you protect guys you project as starters or who did contribute in 2004. Unless either team makes a blockbuster trade to move players (and Chicago is rumored to have made one), than they're faced with Hobsonian choices. Last of all, I think exposing players like Sumentkov and SGR are safe gambles. Unless the expansion team feels that player is a great fit in their system or plays a key role with unique intangibles (like Pareja did for Dallas for so long), most players making more than $75K would probably not be worth taking--it would prevent you from using your allocations and discoveries.
I love expansion drafts. It's going to be just as much fun to see who the 10 teams pull back after a player is chosen as to see who RSL and Chivas actaully pick.
This is fun. Allow me a hypothetical: Interesting the positioning of Metro and Fire w.r.t. the rumored trade. Perhaps Metro saw the possibility that they could get the goalie they wanted without having to pay Chicago's price. Maybe they thought the Fire would have to expose Thornton to keep Ring, but it went the other way. Still they might have bet that Chivas would pick Thornton or Ring over Walker. Then, after the draft, trade to Metro for Walker and something else. They might feel (or have agreed already) that the something else is less than what the Fire want. Other versions of that trade rumor involved either Armas or Marsch. However, because of having to expose Williams, the Fire may find they can, and will want to keep both. If they loose Williams, at least they will save a good bit on the salary cap, which may allow them to keep both Armas and Marsch. Especially considering they will need some veteran players to provide leadership. Losing Williams raises the ante on that at least some. Did I say ante? Is Razov all that's left of that trade from Chicago? For what, they wouldn't need Clark if they keep Armas, Marsch, Pause and Buete. Pope and a pick? Admittedly half-baked (I've revised it three times already), but it makes for some great fun this week!
With a full set of (unofficial) reports now available, it appears that neither swed nor I was able to muster a single perfect 12. I haven't looked at swed's lists in detail, but mine matched five different teams to within one player. Too bad this isn't hand grenades (especially where Joe Franchino is concerned ). I'm fairly surprised at how little trade activity there has been. Dallas's protected list was one player shorter than expected, almost certainly due to Jason Kreis's move to RSL. KC's list was also one player short; perhaps Vuk Rasovic officially retired.
Vuk did retire, It is at the bottom of the article on what players the Wizards left available for the draft http://www.kansascity.com/mld/kansascity/sports/10200070.htm