Expansion Draft Predictions

Discussion in 'MLS: News & Analysis' started by swedcrip34, Nov 13, 2004.

  1. swedcrip34

    swedcrip34 New Member

    Mar 17, 2004
    Predict who'll be protected. Predict who'll be taken. p40 graduates now out. coin flip tomorrow to determine first pick
  2. sch2383

    sch2383 New Member

    Feb 14, 2003
    Northern Virginia
    For DC United I guess the following will be protected:

    Brian Carroll
    Alecko Eskandarian
    Christian Gomez
    Joshua Gros
    Dema Kovalenko
    Jaime Moreno
    Bryan Namoff
    Ryan Nelsen
    Ben Olsen
    Mike Petke
    Santino Quaranta
    Nick Rimando

    The big thing here is the contract status of Ryan Nelsen...his contract is up, but United is trying to keep him, supposedly they have offered him a contract that will pay him the max. If he stays then Petke probably won't be protected, but I put them both down as I would rather lose forwards and midfielders than defenders. The other tricky situation is Christian Gomez as he is here on a loan with an option to buy, so I don't know how that works.

    As for who will be picked up from DC, I would expect Eliseo Quintanilla and Brandon Prideaux would both be picked up (by Chivas and RSL respectivly). After those two, I would guess maybe a guy like Ezra Hendrickson who has been around awhile and is very versitile. Also Tim Lawson, a guy who was signed midseason but could never get on the field (injuries and the great play of Olsen and Carroll kept him out) might make a good pick. I suppose they could go with Perkins, but I think there are going to be a lot of keepers exposed in the draft and there are others I would pick before him in a draft.
  3. swedcrip34

    swedcrip34 New Member

    Mar 17, 2004
    continuation of

    looks like some trades (likely Razov) may happen in two days, but here goes

    I wonder if expansion teams might unload their draft picks on teams in pick for player trades on Monday


    protected: Ralph, Williams, Mapp, Razov, Jaqua, Armas, Gray, Brown, Curtin, Ring, Herron, Boucicaut

    available: Buete, Selolwane, Pause, Perez, Whitfield, Thornton, Countess, Marsch

    developmental: Griffin, Pickens, Capano, Clanton

    comment: no idea Pause vs. Gray vs. Marsch; expect trade(s)

    protected: Buddle, Busch, Fraser, Hejduk, Martino, Sanneh, Wingert, Marshall, Akwari, Oughton, Paule

    available: Cunningham, Denton, Herdsman, Jordan, Lagos, Maisonneuve (retire?), Scott, Testo

    developmental: Ritch (senior dev), Sutton, Szetela, Barclay (will be 22)

    comment: not sure how valued Scott and Testo are; playing time would indicate not much

    DC: protected: Gros, Kovalenko, Nelsen, Olsen, Petke, Quaranta, Perkins, Carroll, Eskandarian, Gomez, Moreno, Quintanilla

    available: Rimando (though might save for Chivas trade), Stewart (likely returning to Holland), Ara, Hendrickson, Lawson, Martins, Namoff, Prideaux

    developmental: Adu, Kuffour, Stokes, Thompson

    comment: depends how Quaranta and Quintanilla have looked in practice, Namoff or Hendrickson might be protected instead. Rimando has played well lately so they might protect him and the cheaper Perkins. Chivas might try for a trade first.

    MET: protected: Clark, Gaven, Guevera, Magee, Parke, Pope, Wolyniec, Walker, Wells, Glen, Taylor (not sure if they'll pick up option if it's 200k), Brenes

    available: Galvan Rey (contract terminated), Bonseu, Vaca, Leitch, Lisi, Regan, Ziade

    developmental: Gilberto, Arena, Stammler, Bradley

    comment: unless trades first or Galvan Rey sold on Monday, may have to protect Bonseu. Don't know how well Wells is valued. Leitch and Lisi may be considered good values towards the cap. Wouldn't be surprised to see some GK trade first. Doubt they'll actually protect 2 GK's. Or all 4 of Magee, Wolyniec, Glen, and Taylor. Rethinking the rules, Bonseu will likely have to be protected.

    protected: Joseph, Noonan, Pierce, Ralston, Twellman, Reis, Dempsey, Brillant, John, Cancela (not sure if happy with coach), Heaps, Leonard (cheap but maybe also expendable)

    available: Howey, Kamler, Cancela, Baker, Franchino, Leonard, Llamosa, Moore, Brown (expensive and risky)

    developmental: Belleh, Dorman, Thomspon, Vercollone, Singer,

    comment: Will Howey, Moore, or Llamosa retire? Is Franchino's leadership worth protecting? Where was Brillant late in the season? Is Baker returning (conflicting reports now)? A lot of tough calls for the last 3-4 spots. I'll be wrong.
  4. POdinCowtown

    POdinCowtown Member+

    Jan 15, 2002

    I doubt the Crew will let Cunningham go for free in the expansion draft. He might be available in a trade though. Paule (concussion problems) more likely to be exposed.

    Teams can only expose 1 SI, so Metros list would need revision.
  5. swedcrip34

    swedcrip34 New Member

    Mar 17, 2004
    COL (who'll decide?, no current coach!)
    protected: Borchers, Cannon, Crawford, Kotschau, Mastroeni, Peguero, 3 of 4 SI's (don't really care who, say Powell, Martinez, Delgado), Beckerman (Rapids fans will kill me), Henderson (one year left, hopefully on the bench), de la Torre

    unprotected: DiGiamarino, Roberts, Vallow, Chung (aging), Trembly, Stewart

    retiring: Spencer

    developmental: Cila, Erush, Foss, Lewis, Sullivan

    comments: May protect Trembly over de la Torre or Henderson but what's really the difference?

    DAL (the least clue)
    protect: 1 GK (will go with Cassar per salary and fan comments I've read), Gibbs, Johsnon, Behncke, Valakari, O'Brien, Pareja, Davis, Quill, Jolley, Maurin, Rhine, Talley

    unprotect: Garlick, Kreis (heard he'll be left unprotected), Nhlecko, Reyes, Salyer, Gbandi

    developmental: Goodson, Nunez, Wagenfuhr

    retiring: Stone

    comments: Pareja returning? Past about 8 players does it matter? trade Gbandi first? May end of protecting him over Talley or any of the last 5 I listed.

    protected: Arnaud, Conrad, Garcia, Jewsbury, Klein, Oshoniyi, Wolff, Zotinca, Simuntekov, Preki (allocation), Diego Walsh (have to), Zavagnin

    unprotected: Meola (I think he might be seeing the door), Rasovic (not sure I've seen him play), Gomez, Shavar Thomas (why isn't he playing now?), Taylor, Burciaga, Gutiererez (he'll be protected, I just can't figure out at who's cost)

    developmental: Detter, Graham, Hesmer, Roberts, Stephenson

    comments: Preki returning? worth salary for another year to keep allocation? (same issue with Meola?); some tough cuts. Willing to sacrifice (maybe trade) Burciaga or Gutiererez for the sake of Chivas? Most teams would protect a 1st rndr like Taylor; definitely would benefit to trade 1 or 2 players on Monday. Is Zavagnin leaving for Europe for sure - allocation to protect? Consider exposing Wolff's salary - is Arnaud that good? Deepest team IMHO.

    protected: Albright, Califf, Hartman, Jones (probably shouldn't, but will), Marshall, Ngwenya, Ruiz, Saragosa, Suarez, Kirovski, Broome, Victorine

    unprotected: Herzog (retired), Hong (retired), Popik, Vagenas (yet they start him so who knows), Moreno, Torres

    developmental (hit the lottery here, all 6 stay): Gardner, Gonzalez, GrabavoyAloisi, Gordon, Thompson

    comments: rumors of Kirovski's availability (expensive?) - may protect Moreno instead; also Torres instead of one of the last 4 I listed.

    protected: Donovan (allocation or might return next mid-season), Ching, Onstad, Mullan, De Rosario (depends on how likely he is to return), Mulrooney, Russell, Robinson, Dunivant, Ekelund, Walker (though you wouldn't know by playing time), Agoos

    unprotected: Brown, Conway, Hart, Roner, Waibel (due for a raise?), Corrales (but he's a nat now?), Dayak

    developmental: Levesque, Alavarez, Cochrane, Cronin, Dombrowski

    comments: is Ekelund returning? De Ro? Will Agoos or Dayak retire? More my list than what I expect. Wouldn't be surprise to see any of Dayak, Corrales, and Waibel protected instead of Walker, Dunivant, Ekelund/DeRo. SJ is fortunate to be about 8 deep with the rest aging or easily replaced.

    a lot comes down to true "cap games" versus not wanting to hurt player egos that may remain
  6. swedcrip34

    swedcrip34 New Member

    Mar 17, 2004
    I think Cunningham is so overpriced they will expose him. Protect Bonseu over Wells but I think they'll try everything possible to dump Galvan Rey or make some trades on Monday. My comments indicated I realized this as a problem with the list.
  7. numerista

    numerista New Member

    Mar 21, 2004
    Great lists, Swed ... couple of little things:

    1. I assume you meant to include Simon Elliott among the Crew's protected players. By my count, you have 11.

    2. Your Revs list accidentally includes a few protected players in the exposed list, too. Also, I don't think that Baker and Howey can both be left unprotected.

    Not surprisingly, my own lists are similar to yours (fwiw, I did produce them before checking this thread) ... here are the points of difference:

    Protect: Pause, Thornton
    Instead of: Boucicaut, CJ Brown (overpriced)

    Protect: Cunningham
    Instead of: Paule

    Protect: Namoff, Rimando
    Instead of: Perkins, Quintanilla

    Protect: Bonseu, Vaca
    Instead of: Jo. Walker, Wells

    (On second thought, I don't think they'll discard Walker ... probably one of the TI's will go instead. But I'll stick with what I first wrote down.)

    New England
    Protect: Baker
    Instead of: Heaps

    Protect: Roberts, Chung
    Instead of: Martínez, de la Torre (guessing he's expensive)

    Protect: Nhleko, Reyes, Salyer
    Instead of: Maurin, Quill, Rhine

    Kansas City
    Protect: Burciaga, Meola
    Instead of: Oshoniyi, Preki

    (I couldn't find room for Diego Gutiérrez, either. The one-SI rule is really painful to the Wizards.)

    Protect: Moreno, Vagenas
    Instead of: Broome, Cobi

    San José
    Protect: Corrales
    Instead of: Russell
  8. swedcrip34

    swedcrip34 New Member

    Mar 17, 2004
    If Baker is leaving, no reason to protect him. Otherwise I might though I'd probably keep Heaps (Duke connection). Wouldn't argue with many of the others though I really doubt Meola will be protected if Oshoniyi starts ahead of him tomorrow. Preki carries an allocation. Roberts is overpaid and oft-injured. Probably has a guaranteed contract. Cobi will be protected though I wouldn't. Same with Corrales. Wouldn't disagree with too many of your changes (think the teams could go either way and in the end few of them will make much difference). I hope to make final predictions after the trading Monday, though some of the final lists may leak before the day is out. With 2 allocations, I think Dallas would like to see an SI go (Nhlecko). He's fast but hasn't impressed me at all. By playing time, one can see what teams think of their current players, but with Colorado Hanki is gone. I can't see Colorado wanting Chung starting next year and he's probably too expensive for the bench. I didn't watch him closely but for the playoffs, but him along with Lewis and maybe Beckerman was where my finger was pointing.

    oh yeah: can i reiterirate that I have no clue about Dallas. Can't remember seeing some of those guys play in years (saw Talley in the 90s!). Salyer got little playing time. Maurin got a "boost" from dev to senior roster. Quill played most times I saw them on. Not sure between Rhine and Reyes but otherwise I'll stick with my list.

    what makes this really hard to predict is some of the salaries that are unknown. Based on talent vs. cap value, decisions can easily change. Age with oft-injured players makes teams like NE tough.
  9. ChrisE

    ChrisE Member

    Jul 1, 2002
    Nat'l Team:
    American Samoa
    I'm confused here, swed - won't Shavar Thomas also be a SI next year? If so, I don't see any way that KC protects Diego Walsh over him. I think there's a very good chance that, to protect Gutierrez (or Burciaga), they don't protect either of their goalkeepers.
  10. ChrisE

    ChrisE Member

    Jul 1, 2002
    Nat'l Team:
    American Samoa
    You both think Columbus is protecting Oughton? He may have played a lot this year, but he's not that, and he's apparently looking at making a move to England - I'd say he's more likely to go than Paule, certainly than Cunningham.
  11. swedcrip34

    swedcrip34 New Member

    Mar 17, 2004
    I seriously considered leaving both GK's off. They probably should. Thomas will be 24 next year.

    KC 4 Shavar Thomas D 1981-01-29 T-I 1

    so can still be TI, 25 is when they turn S-I

    some 24 y/o TIs this year: Ralph, Ibrahim, Brillant, Martinez, Baker, Taylor

    which brings up the point that Brillant and Baker must be protected to expose Howey unless Howey retires (Revs are currently praying). Maybe they can waive Howey.
  12. ChrisE

    ChrisE Member

    Jul 1, 2002
    Nat'l Team:
    American Samoa
    If a TI is to go, I think it's got to be Taylor. He's going to cost 200k to buy, and they've already got 4 strikers who are about as good. And while they may part with Walker, I have a lot of trouble believing they'd let a nat-pool keeper go for free.
  13. McGinty

    McGinty Member

    Aug 29, 2001
    Sporting Kansas City
    Keep in mind when the Wizards traded Preki to Miami, they retained the rights to his allocation. Even if Preki doesn't retire, the Wizards may still hold his allocation regardless of where he plays.

    Rasovic will likely be waived, leaving Walsh unprotected. KC will not be trading Gutierrez to anyone. He's become too much of a leader on this team to be traded. I doubt they would give up Burciaga either.
  14. swedcrip34

    swedcrip34 New Member

    Mar 17, 2004
    I'd imagine that when they got him back, his allocation got reintangled.

    I can list about 14 players KC won't be giving up. That's what makes this so tough. If they can waive Rasovic, then I agree Walsh will be left unprotected. If teams can start waiving players, I expect several TI/SI's to be let go on Monday.
  15. swedcrip34

    swedcrip34 New Member

    Mar 17, 2004
    But Taylor will be a SI. Galvan Rey might be waived but his contract for next year is probably guaranteed.

    Coaching/management and Walker are having big problems right now. I think he'll be traded or protected.
  16. numerista

    numerista New Member

    Mar 21, 2004
    If teams can waive players between now and the draft, that definitely changes the equation. Not only would KC's protected players change, so would Colorado's and perhaps a couple of other teams'.
  17. ChrisE

    ChrisE Member

    Jul 1, 2002
    Nat'l Team:
    American Samoa
    I guess it's clear you've been doing this a little longer than me. In that case, I'd expect the Metros to do everything they can to terminate his loan, I don't know what consensus y'all have reached on that possibility.

    Yes, I know they've been having problems. You're just saying exactly what I (and numerista, upon second thought) said - they won't expose Walker.
  18. Coach_Barry

    Coach_Barry Member

    Aug 18, 2001
    Taunton, MA
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Understanding the rules a little better now, I'll have to make some changes in my original assessment of how I think this should go. Protected players will get a #1-12

    Senior Internationals as of 2005 - can only expose 1
    1. Jose Cancela
    2. Avery John
    3. Steve Howie
    4. Ritchie Baker
    Felix Brillant

    Adin Brown
    5. Clint Dempsey
    Joe Franchino
    6. Shalrie Joseph
    Brian Kamler
    Jay Heaps
    7. Marshall Leonard
    Carlos LLamosa
    Joe-Max Moore
    8. Pat Noonan
    9. Rusty Pierce
    10. Steve Ralston
    11. Matt Reis
    Kyle Singer
    Bobby Thompson
    12. Taylor Twellman

    **Developmental Roster** No need to protect
    Perek Belleh - 22
    Andy Dorman - 22 (also TI)
    Luke Vercollone - 22
  19. numerista

    numerista New Member

    Mar 21, 2004
    You may well be right. There are definitely some factors that work to Oughton's disadvantage. In addition to the things you mention, Sanneh's arrival has given the Crew another versatile right-sided player. With Hejduk and Wingert in the team, that's not really what they need. (By the way, I think there's a chance that Hejduk's pricetag could be left exposed.)

    Personally, I do consider Oughton to be noticeably superior to most of the other utility players around the league, and I think he would've played frequent minutes regardless of what team he was with. That may not be enough to get him protected, though.
  20. terp fan

    terp fan New Member

    Nov 21, 2000
    Do you really think Dallas will be allowed to protect 13? Assuming they can only do 12, I think Salyer and Reyes will be protected while Quill, Jolley and Pareja will be exposed from your list.

    Meola runs KC (may start tomorrow) and will be with them as long as Gansler is the coach. Taylor and Gutiererez will be protected.

    Suarez has options in Eruo and will not return to LA, he hates Sampson btw. Cobi has no production and too big a cap number to stay.
  21. swedcrip34

    swedcrip34 New Member

    Mar 17, 2004
    13 for Dallas, so I'll drop Talley. Can I say enough times that I have no freakin' clue about Dallas! I know Dallas doesn't play the young players (Goodson, Stone, Nunez). But based on minutes played - Jolley 2428 (2nd most), Quill 1377, Pareja 1096 - that these guys are though of well. But I didn't realize Salyer had played so much 1407 and Talley has played a lot too 1688. I think Pareja might carry an allocation when he retires. My new strategy for Dallas will be pulling names out of a hat.

    So who does KC expose. You list 3 more to protect, but other than Ohsoniyi, what 2 will you expose?

    "protected: Arnaud, Conrad, Garcia, Jewsbury, Klein, Oshoniyi, Wolff, Zotinca, Simuntekov, Preki (allocation), Diego Walsh (have to), Zavagnin"

    Revs news release indicated 4 of 5 SI's must be protected and said nothing about being able to waive them first (or else you'd think Howey would be shown the door, though his relationship with Nichol may be "special). Assuming Walsh can be exposed and Rasovic waived. Meola for Oshoniyi. Then who do expose for Taylor?
  22. numerista

    numerista New Member

    Mar 21, 2004
    Preki carries an allocation if he's retiring. But in that case he wouldn't need to be protected. If he wants to make another go of it, then he's an expensive gamble. I'm sure the Wizards would prefer to use some of that cap room on other players.

    Quite possible -- Dallas is one team that could be perfectly happy protecting fewer players. Between now and Monday, they should really seize the chance to upgrade the bottom end of their 12, e.g. by trading draft picks.

    My finger points to the Rapids' bench and GM office. Given the team's utter lack of offensive cohesion, I don't think there's any way to blame individual players. Chung is obviously getting old, but he still played nearly 2000 minutes this season, and as healthy as he's been throughout his career, he may still have a good year or two in him. That left leg is golden, and lest we forget, he was simply phenomenal in 2002 and 2003.
  23. churchill2000

    churchill2000 3x MLS Cup Champions

    Jul 12, 2004
    Monde Virtuel
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    For the LA Galaxy;

    Players that need to be protected for the expansion draft are;
    1) Tyrone Marshall
    2) Alejandro Moreno
    3) Marcelo Saragosa (first need to try and keep him for at least another yr.)
    4) Kevin Hartman
    5) Chris Albright
    6) Joseph Ngwenya (or is he exempt?)
    7) Jovan Kirovski (trade bait?)
    8) Carlos Ruiz (trade bait?)
    9) Cobi Jones (numbers weren't there but he played his heart out)
    10) Danny Califf (wasn't fully recovered)
    11) Arturo Torres
    12) Ryan Suarez (trade bait, unless he plays as wing defender)
  24. JMMUSA8

    JMMUSA8 New Member

    Nov 3, 2001
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Baker has denied the rumors of him returning to Shelbourne.

    How about trades? Next week should be interesting to be a GM in MLS. Colorado will be looking to get a forward, NY needs a big time forward, Chicago needs help on defense, Dallas needs better defensive help.
  25. numerista

    numerista New Member

    Mar 21, 2004
    Just for the record, I didn't notice that you had Talley on your protected list -- since you've dropped him, we now agree on that one.

    Now that I think about it, Zotinca probably won't be protected. That opens up one slot for Gutierrez or Taylor.

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