Perhaps, but Denmark played England twice, both home and away and finished above them in the group table, and Germany still looked like the better team, even if was only a friendly. Germany did seem to have something to prove after their loss to North Macedonia, while the Danish players seemed more interested in not getting injured in a friendly just before the Euro-20, so 1-1 it was. Both England and Germany seem quite beatable at the moment, while Belgium look vastly better.
As for the Netherlands, then I doubt they will be going far. Almost everyone seemed to believe in Turkey being a dark horse, because they had just beaten the Netherland and Norway in the WC-22 qualifiers, but Norway are even more terrible than Poland even if they both have a world class striker and the Dutch are terrible coached.
The Dutch will go out to the Czech Republic in my book. Only because they topped an easy group with 9 points doesn't make them any special. The Czechs are tough to play against. The Dutch will get stifled there.
Summary of the group stage I placed 11/24 teams correctly in their respective groups. ≈ 46% Not very good. Not shockingly bad either. Teams that feared much better than I predicted —Netherlands........... +5 —Austria.....................+4 —Italy..........................+3 —Czech Republic.......+3 —Finland.....................+3 Teams that did much worse than I predicted —Turkey......................—4 —Denmark..................—4 —France......................—4 —Ukraine.....................—4 —North Macedonia....—3 —Scotland..................—3 Teams where I was spot —Switzerland...............0 —Russia...................... 0 —England.....................0 —Croatia......................0 —Sweden.....................0 —Slovakia....................0 Teams where I was very close —Poland......................+1 —Portugal...................+1
I think you're underestimating this Dutch team a bit, just like a lot of pundits seem to do. We lost a qualifier against Turkey and suddenly we're Estonia wearing orange. People forget that the Netherlands reached the Nations League final, beating France, Germany and England along the road. Group C was indeed the weakest group but not by the margin people think it is. Ukraine and Austria are decent, at least on par and arguably better than Hungary and Scotland, whom England and Germany couldn't beat. The Netherlands made them look worse than they actually are. It is true that the Netherlands has its weaknesses: we probably have the worst goal keeper of all teams that reached the knock-out stages, they're vulnerable on counter attacks and Blind is exposed badly when in 1 vs 1 situations. Also, we lack world class quality up front. On the upside, not a single player on the German or Italian roster is better than Frenkie de Jong and if there was a combined Dutch/Belgian team, only 4 Belgian players would make the starting eleven. In terms of quality, England has the superior squad but Southgate is worse than Frank de Boer.
My Predictions for Round of 16: Belgium vs Portugal: This really could go either way and might be the matchup of the Round of 16. It'll come down to a very close game. Both teams I feel even have similar strength and weaknesses. Both very strong in attack, both have defensive issues, and both also have weaknesses in midfield. Belgium looks to have been more consistent though, and I think the attack with Hazard, De Bruyne, and Lukaku should be free flowing. Both teams will score, but I think Belgium will outscore the Portuguese. Italy vs Austria: I believe that Austria is the second weakest team still in the tournament after Ukraine. Italy by a lot; maybe even like 4-0. France vs Switzerland: This matchup is always a classic, however I don't remember seeing these two meet in the knockout rounds. Happened in the group stages so many times. It'll be somewhat close, but I expect France to progress. Croatia vs Spain: This is really tough. Both teams have seen better days. Don't be fooled by Spain's thrashing over Slovakia. Slovakia is so inconsistent, sometimes can look great, and other times can look terrible. Also if their goalkeeper didn't make that terrible mistake, I think the scoreline would've been more like 2-0 or 3-0 to Spain. Croatia can be tough on their day. The teams are pretty equal but I just give Zlatko Dalic the tactical advantage on this one. Sweden vs Ukraine: Ukraine is the weakest team still in here, in fact weaker than any team that Sweden played in the group stage. Should be a cake walk for the Swedish. England vs Germany: Both teams have disappointed, but Germany has always proven to do best when facing other good teams and Germany has a great record against England with history. I expect to see a masterclass performance from the Germans next round and I think they will take it. Netherlands vs Czech Republic: Netherlands were so lucky to have an easy group. Czech Republic are good defensively and tough to break down. I think the Czech Republic squeezes this one. Wales vs Denmark: This will be very interesting. Both teams are really tough to beat on their day. I do think Denmark is slightly better though and will be a lot more hungry.
Interesting about France-Switzerland is that the Swiss will have 3 days more rest than the French. It probably won't make a difference as far as who wins, but I can't remember a case at a World Cup or Euro where one team had so much more rest than the other.
I think Belgium is clearly the class of that trio, England seem to have a high floor and an even keel while Germany can hit real highs and real low’s. Ftr, is Hungry actually kinda good? Throw out the last 10 or 15 mins against Portugal and they were relatively even w/everyone in the group of death. I absolutely did not see that coming. Not sure what to think of Denmark. You can obviously toss out the Finland game. How much of their approach centered on Eriksen? I just get the sense that they may have had to change everything after his near death. Not sure if they viewed or even wanted Damsgaard as a like for like, seems a huge stretch. I’m absolutely amazed and so proud of them.
Nah, I’ll give props if you nail this and you should jump on William Hill: Czech’s: +435 to win in regulation Czech’s +1 is -145 in regulation but the Dutch should win it. Agreed on the coach being garbage, otoh, props for them for coming out and crushing it in the group stage.
I got 15/24 teams in the proper slot but it was quite group specific, like I got all of F and none of E. But maybe the right way to judge it is how off in terms of expected performance: Much better than I expected: Hungry: Way better. Wales: I wasn’t buying Denmark: Heroic Austria: kind of shocked at how solid they were. Czech: should’ve finished 2nd. Much worse: Turkey: clearly March was an outlier. Switzerland: awful Finland: surprised me w/how bad they looked. Ukraine: that match day 3 game, to quote some comic, went over like a fart in church. Croatia: I’d been warned, but they were even worse than I expected. Spain: It’s not so much that they suck, more that they are no longer remotely a top tier Uefa side. France and England: this is entirely about how ordinary they’ve looked. They have elite talent but haven’t produced the elite performances they’re capable of….otoh, this like ‘90, has become an era where low scoring, low chance total games are creeping back into the game so defensive solidity is a key in contending, but can you say England was really tested? At least France can say yes to that. England, not so much. That was clearly a group of life.
Denmark with Eriksen would play 4-3-3 and only change to 3-4-3 or 4-4-2 at the end of a game if needed, but after the Finland match with Eriksen gone, the manager changed to 3-4-3 in the first half vs. Belgium, which worked just brilliantly, but then Belgium changed their tactics for the 2nd half and obviously also subbed in their captain Hazard, vice-captain Kevin De Bruyne and Witsel, which was not really part of their original plan so soon, but that again also made the Denmark manager do some experiments by changing from 3-4-3 to 4-3-3 and 4-4-2, but obviously that did not work quite as well, so vs. Russia he stuck with 3-4-3 that had worked so well against Belgium and also worked well vs. the Russians. Now when I praise Belgium it is, besides having some great players, mainly because of their excellent team-work and ability and willingness to change their game plan if they are in trouble, unlike England and Germany who just "do their thing" not really taking notice or studying their opponents all that much, but get in deep trouble if their fixed game plan do not work, because they do not really have much of a plan B.
I as an Italy fan would say that we were much better than I expected. I did expect is to top our group but NOT that comfortably. I honestly thought that we would end up grinding out results against Switzerland and Wales. I also expected us a drop a couple points somewhere in our group as well. Denmark is also way better than I thought. I expected them to advance but thought that they relied too much on Eriksen in attack before watching them. They look like a very strong second tier team without Eriksen. Austria and Netherlands surprised me a bit as well. I didn’t expect either of them to beat Ukraine. Czechs were impressive too. I knew that Croatia were not nearly as good as before but didn’t think the Czechs would play so well like they did. Russia, and Ukraine were most disappointing to me. Turkey as well; didn’t expect them to advance but thought they’d at least get a point.
Did they do some of that in their miracle comeback against Japan back in ‘18 (can’t remember if they were behind 2-0 at halftime or at some point in the 2nd half, I just know they grabbed 3 goals late on in like 20 mins total).
I think Italy had the best preparation of all teams. They must have done something right in the build up to the tournament. I mean I knew that they are slowly rising from ashes but neither I expected them to be that convincing in group play. I went into this tournament saying Belgium would be the best team based on what I saw from them over the last two years. But Italy are clearly putting themselves in a position not too far off Belgium. I'm quite confident that one of Belgium or Italy will win the whole thing.
Let's wait and see what Italy does away from the friendly confines of Rome. Too bad Austria is such a feeble opponent. We probably won't really know about Italy until the quarter-finals.
As a German, I am hoping for a typical match in England. The English should play the way they always play against Germany. Highly motivated. I hope for an open game. Up and down, high speed, just like playing football in England. For me it's a tactical thing. Germany's defense is weak. Germany is unimaginative when the opponent is in the back. But if Germany has the space, Germany can play a great game and win. For me, this shows how good Southgate is. Does he play like England always plays against Germany. With a lot of passion. England plays at home. Downside is. With this open style of play you play Germany into the cards. Germany wants to have the space. Or give England Germany the ball, having a good defense, and then counter them at some point.
Turkey's performance and poor results were surprising to me. I didn't think of them as a "dark horse, but rated them well above how they showed. While not as surprised by Russia being eliminated as I was with Turkey being eliminated and pointless to boot, I did expect the Russians to do somewhat better also. Otherwise, for me, the rest have been more or less as I would have expected, with Italy somewhat more than I had thought and Germany maybe less (esp. against Hungary). As for the rest of the tournament, I still rate France, Italy and Belgium as the top favorites, with Germany, England, Spain, and Portugal as contenders. The Danes and the Swiss would be my "dark horse" candidates, while the Netherlands, Croatia, and Sweden (maybe The Czech Republic as well) aren't entirely hopeless either. Conversely, I consider Austria, Ukraine and Wales more or less hopeless and would be surprised if any of them last much longer in the tournament.
It might, but I consider it doubtful that it will. It should be a good match and give the Germans slightly better odds. If Germany win, I think the scoreline will be 3:2. If they lose, it will probably be 2:1 or 1:0.
Denmark and Italy have an absurd record going back several years, they both just seem very good though I think in both cases their ceiling is probably lower than the big dogs, especially in the case of a Denmark having to move forward without Eriksen. In fairness, I'm not sure about Italy. If you're an Italy fan, I have to say I'm a bit flummoxed because they've basically gone undefeated in qualifiers for anything since the Summer of '18. No losses in Euro qualifying, no losses in WC qualifying (admittedly WC qualifying is only 2-3 games in for most nations in Europe). Still, if you go undefeated for basically 13 games worth of qualifiers that's kind of a holy ---- level performance. The crazy thing is that it's not just undefeated, they haven't even drawn anybody. It's 13 guys came up, and they knocked all 13 down. Again, I'll grant, the opponents aren't necessarily powerhouses, none of them really, but there were definitely some grind it out kinds of teams noted for pulling off draws even against powerhouses, but nope, Northern Ireland, Bulgaria, Finland, Greece, Bosnia, GTFO more or less. So it's an unusual situation. None of those teams are actually good, but even great teams drop points on the road in qualifiers generally. Italy hasn't dropped a point in qualifying since 2017. Kind of insane. Denmark's run has been nearly as inspiring, especially what they've done in the tournament. I'm just a bit bummed both of them while getting winnable games in the opening round run into a potential John Deere Combine in the quarterfinals if they make it that far (Italy meets Belgium or Portugal, Denmark would meet Netherlands unless the Czech's upset them). Otoh I shouldn't complain, they could've been Belgium, or England, and gotten a reward for winning their group of either a Euro '16 defending champ or the WC '14 champion for your troubles as oppossed to the much more attractive matchups like Austria, Switzerland, Croatia, Ukraine, the Czech's or Wales. As often happens, it definitely feels like one side of the bracket is far tougher than the other, just like WC '18, I think that's probably because inexplicably, we had a group featuring the WC '18 Champ, the Euro '16 champ, and the WC '14 champ. I imagine distribution might have been better if not for that. It's just odd to have on one side of a bracket: France, Belgium, Italy, and Portugal, and on the other side, basically an up and down Germany, an up and down in the same game Netherlands, and England's utilitarian approach.
That's what I'm expecting. England's been playing a grind it out, conservative approach, I don't see them wanting to open it up. If they weren't willing to do that against the Scots, Czech's and the corpses of Croatia, why would they do it against a team w/plenty of attacking firepower in Germany? I don't see it. I hope we get that game, we'll need Germany to score first to get it, but I don't see it happening. I expect it to be a dull 1-0 win, maybe late on, for Germany, but I think the result is kinda 50/50. Looking at the odds, it's close to that: Germany is +185 to win in reg England is +155 to win in reg.
Looks like I was right, until around minute 75 or so in terms of the entertainment value of the game, and then not so much (and especially the aside about Croatia playing like Corpses, they fought like heroes yesterday, absolutely went out on their shields as they say). Southgate didn't seem the type to want an open game despite having a litany of attacking options. My Brackets pretty much thoroughly busted at this point, although the QF selections don't look like straight trash so much, just messy: Quarterfinals: Belgium over Italy France over Sweden England over Spain Portugal over Denmark Have 5 of 7 right so far, but with a Final where France was beating England, that's out the door, so....
Still think Belgium-England final. I think at the very least, whoever wins the Italy-Belgium game will take the Euros. Belgium have have the best balance of any remaining squad at these finals. Italy haven't been tested enough since Mancini took over, but he has found the right balance I think and certainly if anyone can beat Belgium, I think they are the only ones to do it. I like Denmark's chances as a dark horse, but England's home advantage and negative approach will make them hard to beat. Denmark probably need to beat them on penalties or manage to nab one first to put England under pressure to score. England like to paly a very defensive midfield. If they are forced to chase it, I can see them crumbling under the pressure because the team is still young and lacks experience. We've seen a little bit of that against Scotland and even against the Czechs. Pickford in particular inspires little confidence in me. It seems de Bruyne rolled his ankle. Eden had some tightness in the hamstring. Martinez hasn't ruled them out, but they look doubtful. Maybe at some stage they will enter the contest to try and influence the game. It may all depend on how desperate Belgium get. Whatever the case, there is always Mertens. He may be old, but he's still wily and sharp. Give him an opening and he can punish anyone. Maybe Martinez is playing some mind games, trying to pressure UEFA to ensure his team win the favor of the referees. After what Portugal got away with, they can exert that pressure on them. Looking at how well Belgium defended against Portugal, especially with Courtois' commanding performance, and how hard a time Italy had against Austria, I thinks it's fair to say Italy could struggle to breakthrough. Plus Lukaku can cause Italy the same kind of problems Arnautovic and Kaladjzic caused Italy. Unless Chiellini plays, I'm not sure Italy can cope with Lukaku. Belgium seem to have an advantage over Italy, but whoever wins this game for me wins the Euros. This is the real final as far as I'm concerned.