If England had a better keeper, I'd have picked them to win the tournament. They are the strongest team in every department of those in the group. Croatia has done well since their independence from Yugoslavia. They usually qualify for major finals and tend to produce respectable results. Problem now is the core group is past it's peak (think Italy 2010). The goalkeeper is not tested enough for this level (again Italy 2010). He has only played Europa League, which isn't enough. Even in the game to Belgium, he came out of his goal and clashed into his own defender on a Lukaku break. He's going to keep making silly mistakes like that. The main reason he is starting is because the original backup who had the seniority performed even more poorly in the chances he was given. Livakovic is not ready yet.
Ok you made some good points which I agree with. Livakovic will probably be making a big move this summer. He’s a terrific shot stopper but can be shaky coming out sometimes. Btw Subasic was also shaky to coming out for balls. Livakovic does not have great experience but man was he good against Spurs when Dinamo beat them in Zagreb. I don’t think he is Croatia biggest problem it’s there back line. As for England I don’t see that creative ball retention midfielder. Mount is good but I don’t know where Southgate will play him. Foden really skilled but plays attacking mid not central mid same with Grealish. France are a class above everyone.
Think you're right on better, I liked Pletikosa, Subasic was weaker IMO but Livakovic whenever I see him I have been impressed.
My predictions 1. Italy..................................6 2. Turkey..............................4 3. Switzerland.....................4 4. Wales.............................. 2 1. Belgium...........................7 2. Denmark..........................7 3. Russia..............................3 4. Finland.............................0 1. Ukraine.............................7 2. Netherlands.....................4 3. North Macedonia............3 4. Austria.............................2 1. England........................... 7 2. Scotland...........................4 3. Croatia..............................4 4. Czech Republic................1 1. Spain.................................7 2. Sweden.............................7 3. Slavakia.............................3 4. Poland.............................. 0 1. France...............................9 2. Germany...........................6 3. Portugal............................3 4. Hungary.............................0 Ranking of Third placed Teams 1) Switzerland 2) Croatia 3) Russia 4) North Macedonia 5) Slovakia 6) Portugal Round of 16 Belgium over Switzerland Italy over Netherlands France over North Macedonia Scotland over Sweden (on penalties) Spain over Russia Germany over England (in extra time) Ukraine over Croatia Denmark over Turkey Quarterfinals Belgium over Italy (in extra time) France over Scotland Germany over Spain (on penalties) Denmark over Ukraine (in extra time) Semi-finals Belgium over France Denmark over Germany (on penalties) The Grand Final Belgium over Denmark Champions: Belgium (1st ever major title)
Summary Champions: Belgium Biggest surprise: Denmark Final Four: Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany Other notable surprises: Scotland, Ukraine Flops: Netherlands, Poland, Portugal Teams with 0 points: Finland, Poland, Hungary Let's see how this will age.
I don't expect England to win this thing but with home advantage and the players they have at their disposal if they don't make the last 4 then they should be put firmly into the 'flops' category in my book.
My mediocre predictions: Group A: 1.Italy 2.Switzerland 3.Turkey 4.Wales Group B: 1..Belgium 2.Denmark 3.Finland 4.Russia Group C: 1.Netherlands 2.Ukraine 3.Austria 4.N. Macedonia Group D: 1.England 2.Croatia 3.Czech Republic 4.Scotland Group E: 1.Spain 2.Sweden 3.Poland 4.Slovakia Group F: 1.France 2.Germany 3.Portugal 4.Hungry Round of 16: Belgium over Poland Italy over Ukraine France over Turkey Sweden over Croatia Spain over Czech Republic England over Germany Portugal over Netherlands Denmark over Switzerland Quarterfinals: Belgium over Italy France over Sweden England over Spain Portugal over Denmark Semifinals: France over Belgium England over Portugal Final: France over England My Big Questions: 1. Just how good is Italy? Since basically sucking for most of 2010-2018, they're suddenly firing on all cylinders... 2. Who really reminds us why a 16 team tournament is better and who reminds us why a 24 team tournament could be great? Hungry, and N. Macedonia seem likely to get curb stomped, but there are teams in here w/enough weird results for me to have no idea how they might perform: Will Finland or Russia take third place? Is Turkey any good? Could the Czech's or Scot's jump over a flagging Croatia? How good is Wales again four years later from a high water mark? 3.Could Portugal pull the rug out from Germany or France, or could Germany pull off yet another brutal victory over France following some classic horrors in the past (1982 in particular)? 4. France, England and Belgium seem a cut above, and yet all can stumble at times, and all 3 are historically noted for tripping up at the cusp of potential success, who might sweep up their mistakes and steal a trophy as it kind of feels Portugal did four years ago? 5. Who is the dark horse side of the tournament? Currently it feels like the best potential dark horse sides are Italy, Portugal and Denmark. Italy and Denmark due to form, Portugal due to the relatively user friendly path they have, along with their improved quality. If they take third, they actually would probably have an easier path than if they took runner up. It will be interesting to see if the way the tournament plays out encourages a team in the group of death to tank on matchday 3 in order to avoid England in the Round of 16? Sounds crazy, but in the US, we just saw numerous teams tank to change NBA playoff matchups, and of course we also saw a team tank its final game in the NFL to improve draft slotting. Could a National Team do it, if it becomes clear that finishing third rather than second gives you the Netherlands in the Round of 16 rather than England? Possible. Highly unlikely, but possible. Anyway, I have no clue what's going to happen. I've had my great tournaments predicting things (Euro '04, WC '06, WC '14's selection of Costa Rica to grab a knockout slot rather than England and Italy, the group stage of Euro '16 and WC '18), and seem to have a really strong record of group stage predictions, and a really horrible trendline with knockout round predictions (at least when it comes to betting: I've gotten curb stomped by knockout round regulation draws in my betting in recent tournaments). Now that I think about it, I think I'm gonna research it: World Cup '14: 8/14 Knockout games went to Extra Time and/or Penalties Euro '16 and World Cup '18 both had 5/14 games go to Extra Time or Penalties. This has me curious regarding any potential trend lines historically..... For today, I definitely have Italy winning, but I'm super curious, Turkey kicked the Netherlands in the face back in March and definitely seems in better shape now than at any point since Euro '08. It will be interesting, Turkey shocking the world wouldn't surprise me, but how can you bet against Italy after what they've done in qualifying the last few years.....
Hey guys, I wonder if you know better than an ordinary american if the predicted first team's goalkeeper aginst Ukraine supposed to be Krul or Stekelenburg?
Topping the group. Then losing to another heavyweight isn't exactly a flop. It could be viewed as a flop due to home advantage if anything.
I feel so. Schmeichel will make a few saves. Underrated goalkeeper. His name is rarely cited when it comes to name the world's best goalkeepers.
Well, Denmark no longer has much of a chance without Eriksen. But Christian is alive and stable, and that's all that matters.
Really? Didn't something very similar happen to Fernando Torres in an Atletico Madrid game like 4-5 years ago?
That was a head injury. Not something you want to have happen, but very different from a cardiac condition, which Eriksen clearly has, and which could strike him again at any time.
Belgium is worthy of winning this as well as France. I'd love if we had a minnow like Slovakia or Denmark make it to the semi's at least.
Hey Viking, Denmark is not a minnow. The only minnow at this tournament is North Macedonia, and I'm not even sure about them.
I knew as soon as I wrote that I'd be in big trouble. You're right about Denmark. Well surely Finland is a minnow even if they have played above expectations.
Looks like I got 14/16 right. Got Poland and Turkey totally wrong. Turkey was horrific, and Poland nose dived after that red card. So far general thoughts: Best looking teams (and bear in mind, most of the time, the titan of the group stage is slayed in the knockouts before they even make the final: Brazil and Spain in '02 Spain and Argentina in '06 Netherlands and Argentina in '10 Colombia and the Netherlands (Germany being the exception) in '14 Croatia and Belgium in '18): Belgium, Italy and the Netherlands: Each have weaknesses, Belgium can fall asleep a bit, Italy finally had an uneven performance on match day 3, and Netherlands can score a bunch, but can leak goals too. Other contenders: France: They are the defending champ and keep grinding results and looking crappy while they do it. Germany: What in the hell is wrong with that team? They've looked better than any team at times (against Portugal) and putrid at others (vs Hungry) England: Can't shake the sense that they're basically producing less than 50% the actual quality they have. Their group was quite weak and they still looked quite pedestrian. Portugal: Could beat anyone on their day. Right now, looking at the paths, it's interesting that we've got chunks of teams piled together, but in the top half of the bracket, they have to play each other (only one survivor is likely between Belgium, Portugal and Italy after the Quarterfinals, while the bottom bracket managed to keep Netherlands away from the England vs Germany side. So its fair to say of all the teams looking good, or carrying strong odds going forward, Netherlands and France have the clearest path. They won't play a top 8 European side until the semifinals. Every other powerhouse has to play at least 2 top 8 sides if they are to advance to the semifinals. It should be interesting. If I were to have revised Quarterfinal picks right now, after going 14/16 (which in retrospect, seems kind of paint by #'s, so no props for it probably), I think I'd go with: Belgium vs Italy France vs Spain Sweden vs Germany Netherlands vs Denmark I don't feel strongly about any of the winners I have making it this far other than Italy, France and the Netherlands though. My big "No Clue" games would probably be: Croatia vs Spain England vs Germany Wales vs Denmark I have hunches, but honestly, they all seem like toss ups. Spain seems a likely winner right now, but they looked like ---- until today, and Slovakia can make a lot of teams look more competent when they're keeper is flailing away their knockout hopes into the back of his own net.
It's difficult to rate Belgium and Denmark, because for Denmark this tournament first really started started vs. Russia because of what happened to Eriksen. In the game vs. Belgium, Denmark had changed the usual tactics from 4-3-3 to 3-4-3 in the first half which was a huge success, but then changed it back to 4-3-3 and also tried the 4-4-2 in the 2nd half to find out what would work without Eriksen vs. Russia and possible games to come, while Belgium also were forced to do several tactical changes for the 2nd half, including sending in their captain Hazard, vice-captain Kevin De Bruyne and Witsel who had not played in their 3-0 victory in Russia. The Danish coach then finally decided to stick with 3-4-3 vs. Russia, while I'm sure Belgium will be fielding De Bruyne and Hazard from now on.
Denmark has played against England (in the 2020-21 UEFA Nations League), Belgium (both in the Nations League and Euro-20) and Germany (in a friendly just before the Euro-20) and we lost every game to Belgium, beat England 1-0 away and drew with Germany 1-1 away, so doing a comparison, then Belgium is clearly the better team, and Germany seemed better than England.