EURO 2020 Power Rankings

The current International break is changing my opinion on some teams. After all games are played I will come up with an update of my Power Rankings which I had posted here above in this thread. There will be quite a few changes to my list.

 

I was right for giving credit to Turkey in spite of their poor Nations League campaign. I knew they didn't take that competition seriously. Loot at how they are performing in World Cup qualifiers. They beat the two hardest oppositions in their group the Netherlands and Norway soundly. I kept them at "B" and if they don't shit the bed against Latvia at home they'll get even an upgrade to "B+".

 

I agree with you about Norway not being a complete team yet. The connection between midfield and forwards is lacking. The defense isn't rock solid either. The game was closer than the result, correct. But there's no doubt that Turkey was the better team on the pitch.

Denmark started very well. I watched their game in Israel. Even though Denmark didn't play their best they were able to win. They shut down Israel in the first half. At the start of the 2nd half Israel could have scored if they could have maintained the pressure for a longer period. But they couldn't and Denmark killed off the game.

On Wednesday Denmark will face Austria away. Their most difficult game in the group. I believe Austria will play their best but having watched Denmark against Israel I think they are able to resist here. The game is most likely going to end in a draw. Regardless of the result in Austria Denmark will remain a "B+" in my Power Rankings as it's my highest possible grade for non powerhouse nations. Probably their position will change though. Austria on the other hand I lean to downgrade them from "B" to "B-". That's for the case they fail to beat Denmark. Two draws against Scotland away (C+) and Denmark at home (B+) wouldn't justify in my opinion to keep a "B". Especially with other nations performing well that I graded lower than "B.
You should expect for a team of a "B" grade to win at least one of Scotland away or Denmark home.

 

Thank you for honouring me. It's because of which post? Regarding Turkey?

 

Maybe I'm good at making observations but not very good at predicting...
At least not in the on-going qualifiers.
I will come up with my updated Power Rankings on Friday after having watched the rebroadcasts of numerous games.

 

It was still a great international break for Turkey. Would you have said them that before the games started they would take 7 points and be top of the table they would have took it no doubt.
Turkey will be in the group of potential dark horses for the EUROs in my opinion. So will be Denmark. Both teams you better don't want to face them in a knockout stage game.

 

My updated and finalised EURO Power Rankings

I want to clarify that this list puts emphasis on the performances and results of the teams in competitive games after Russia 2018. Recent results and performances are weighted more than games from fall 2018 for example. Well, I don't care if a team has big names on their roster when they don't perform up to expactations. This list is about performances.

1) France.............................A+
2) Portugal..........................A+

3) Belguim...........................A
4) Italy..................................A
5) England...........................A

6) Spain...............................A-
7) Denmark..........................A-

8) Germany..........................B+
9) Netherlands.....................B+
10) Ukraine..........................B+
11) Switzerland ..................B+
12) Turkey............................B+

13) Sweden..........................B
14) Czech Republic..............B
15) Poland...........................B
16) Croatia...........................B

17) Russia..........................B-
18) Hungary........................B-
19) Wales...........................B-
20) Finland.........................B-
21) North Macedonia.........B-
22) Austria..........................B-

23) Scotland.......................C+
24) Slovakia........................C+

Changes compared to my November rankings

= FRANCE....................A+ => A+......1) => 1)

= PORTUGAL................A+ => A+.....2) => 2)

= BELGUIM...................A => A.........3) => 3)

+1 ITALY........................A => A.........5) => 4)

+1 ENGLAND................A => A.........6) => 5)

-2 SPAIN.......................A => A-.........4) => 6)

+5 DENMARK..............B+ => A-.....12) => 7)

= GERMANY................B+ => B+.......8) => 8)

-2 NETHERLANDS......B+ => B+.......7) => 9)

+1 UKRAINE...............B+ => B+....11)=> 10)

-1 SWITZERLAND...... B+ => B+...10) => 11)

+3 TURKEY.................B => B+......15) => 12)

= SWEDEN.................B => B........13) => 13)

+4 CZECHIA..............B— => B......18) => 14)

-1 POLAND...............B => B..........14) => 15)

-7 CROATIA.............B+ => B...........9) => 16)

= RUSSIA................B— => B—......17) => 17)

+2 HUNGARY.........B— => B—......20) => 18)

= WALES...............B— => B—.......19) => 19)

+1 FINLAND.........C+ => B—........21) => 20)

+3 NORTH MACEDONIA..C => B-..24)=>21)

-6 AUSTRIA............B => B—.........16) => 22)

-1 SCOTLAND....... C+ => C+........22) => 23)

-1 SLOVAKIA...........C+ => C+......23) => 24)


A quick look at how the EURO groups look with my rankings.

Group A in Baku and Rome

4) Italy..............................A
11) Switzerland...............B+
12) Turkey.......................B+
19) Wales........................B—

Group B in Copenhagen and Saint Petersbourg

3) Belguim...................... A
7) Denmark..................... A—
17) Russia.......................B—
20) Finland......................B—

Group C in Amsterdam and Bucharest

9) Netherlands................B+
10) Ukraine.....................B+
21) North Macedonia..... B—
22) Austria.......................B—

Group D in London and Glasgow

5) England.......................A
14) Czechia.....................B
16) Croatia......................B
23) Scotland...................C+

Group E in Bilbao and Dublin

6) Spain..........................A—
13) Sweden................... B
15) Poland......................B
24) Slovakia...................C+

Group F in Munich and Budapest

1) France........................A+
2) Portugal.....................A+
8) Germany.....................B+
18) Hungary....................B—

Group A and F are the most competitive groups with each having three teams that are rated B+ and higher. Group C with the Dutch who have been struggling as of late and North Macedonia on the rise sees all of a sudden all teams in the same category, separated only by different grades. In summer 2020 this group would have looked quite different. Group D has the biggest mismatch of the tournament with England - Scotland.

Regarding who are the contenders to win the tournament. These are in my eyes France, Portugal, Belguim, Italy and England. To a lesser extent Spain. Denmark should reach at least the quarterfinals if they don't run into an A+/A/A— or B+ team in the Round of 16. The powerhouses Germany and the Netherlands are ranked lowly because of their meh performances. But if they get both their shit together and enjoy a good preparation they can have a good tournament too. Barring they'll have an easy bracket I can't see how they could win the tournament though. For potential dark horses who can reach the quarterfinals or maybe even the semi-finals watch out for teams like Denmark and those which are rated with a B+ or those with a B to a lesser extent. The B- sides will find it difficult to advance out their group. If they do the Round of 16 should be their ceiling. The sames goes for the C+ sides who have their work cut out.

 

Now, is it possible to predict perfectly the group stage based on my work of having watched each of these teams for hours and hours?
It ain't but it gives us an idea of how things could roughly pan out.

There are some more recipes for a team's success in a major tournament. First and firemost you better have no injuries of key players or of players in key positions.

Then, you have to make sure that you are having a very good preparation. In a good preparation there are several aspects to cover.

1) Building physical strengh
2) Adjusting tactics and
3) Building team chemistry

If a team is doing very well in all those aspects then they can jump up by two grades in my opinion.

Say a Germany that I rated only B+ could get to the A level etc...

The preparation sets the tone of a team's success in a major tournament. This is why some powerhouses perform usually well and some others not in a tournament.

But for a B+ side there must be falling literally everything into place in order to win the tournament. Good preparation + easy bracket + other higher ranked nations not lifting up to their pre-tournament performances and potential etc...

Even though France and Portugal are ranked the highest in my rankings with A+ they can still do a lot better than what they've shown in the last international break. If I wanted to be ruthless I could have downgraded to an A but this would have been unfair as I believe that they've shown enough in this cycle to deserve to be one step ahead of all others.

 

I took a look at the brackets for the tournament. Interestingly the runners-up of Group D (with Czech Republic and Croatia) and Group E (with Sweden and Poland) will play each other in the Round of 16. There you got it. We are by my definition extraordinary likely to see one of these four teams in the quarterfinals.
Croatia have been subpar since ever the World Cup finished. If there is no drastic change I don't see them edging out a resurgent team like Czechia in their group.

In the other group I favour Sweden at the moment to finish ahead of Poland in 2nd. Sweden is a reliable team. You know what you gonna get from them. Poland has a new coach with Paulo Sousa. It's difficult to assess their current level under him. But so far in their games against Hungary away and England away they look to me like a mid-tier team in this field of 24 teams. Sweden edges it at the moment though.

A Czechia - Sweden Round of 16 match up would be the most likeliest at the moment. And then there you have already one of your "B" teams in the last eight....

 

Same interesting situation here. The runners-up of Group B (with Denmark and favourites Belguim) will face the runners-up of Group A (with Switzerland and Turkey) in the Round of 16. Again, by my estimation a match up between Denmark and Switzerland/Turkey. Another non powerhouse nation that will storm into the quarterfinals at least.

Guys, we could have nice quartefinal match ups mixed with powerhouse nations and two three surprise teams in it. This is adding spice to the whole thing. I don't want only all the big nations in the latter stages of a tournament. It would be less interesting in my opinion.

 

Yeah, Belguim will have two away games, Denmark plays it all at home. That makes things even more interesting. Belguim should be able to overcome Russia nevertheless. Russia isn't playing a very special brand of Football these days. They belong by my estimation to the lower part of the middle-range teams in this EURO. Russia is a team that puts emphasis on a high willingness to run. They play very often long balls to Dzyuba in the hope that he can do something out of it. It worked against Slovenia in World Cup qualfying but it is no recipe for success against Belguim or Denmark. Belguim beat this opponent soundedly when they last meet in EURO qualfying in Russia. I remember Russia's confidence was on high levels but they were too adventurous and got outclassed by Belguim that night. They will surely chose a more passive approach this time but Belguim is stacked in the attacking department so this should be three points for them.

I think Denmark-Belguim in Copenhagen will be a difficult test for Belguim. They won there 2-0 when Hjulmand had his 1st game in charge of the Danish NT. They won the reverse fixture as well this time 4-2 in a game where Denmark had to open up after having conceded as they had still a chance to get to the Nations League semi-finals.
I think the fact that the team have worked some more time with Hjulmand and hence the team will be able to better implement his tactics paired with the home advantage (there will be surely somewhat of a crowd in the stands) will make it a much more demanding game for Belguim, indeed. Looking at my rankings it should be a very close one with the 7th (A—) playing the 3rd (A) with home advantage. Any outcome seems possible here.

I noticed your strikers Wind and Skov Olsen in World Cup qualfying. They are both still young. They looked promising. We have to see how their development goes but it's certainly an asset to have some younger attacking threats in the squad.

 

@Ceres

Previously I did say that I would put no powerhouse nations in the A tier of my list. I made an exception for Denmark as I felt that it's worth to reward them for their incredible consistency. After the resounding start in World Cup qualfying with nine points and 14:0 goal difference I had no other choice than to put them just in the A tier. I hope you appreciate it.

 

A team I found it difficult to place in my rankings was Ukraine. Their performances in this international break weren't too great and they had a mixed bag of results.

Drawing France away was of course impressive. The draw against Finland could have been avoided. It was an individual blunder at the end of the game that cost them the game. However Ukraine wasn't looking good attacking wise in that game either. May I give them a pass for the Finland game I can't give them a pass for their draw against Kazskhstan at home. An opponent that a B+ rated team should absolutely beat. To the defense of Ukraine they had some important attacking players such as Tsygankov, Yarmolenko and Konoplyanka missing. But still. These are maybe worrying signs for them. Ukraine might be not as strong as I thought.

For now I've given them the benefit of the doubt as they had several noteworthy results against powerhouses in this cycle. Otherwise I would have placed them lower than 10th as a result.

 

Out of the powerhouses Italy is the team whose level is the most difficult to assess. They have been playing well and are consistent but they haven't played any A tier sides as of late.

They did play Portugal in the 2018/2019 Nations League but then again both teams played with totally different line ups compared to how they would play today. That leaves us only the two match ups with the Dutch in the last edition of the Nations League. Italy took four points against the Dutch, outplayed them in Amsterdam when the Dutch were coached by a caretaker manager. The return leg in Italy though looked totally balanced with De Boer being at that point the new manager of the Dutch.

For all we know is that Italy possesses a midfield that is on par or even better than some of the other powerhouses. The question lies in the attacking department. Are Immobile and Belotti good enough to lead Italy very deep into the tournament?
How will Italy fare against Europe's very best? That's indeed a question that is hard to answer. Although I have Italy very high in my rankings as 4th I don't consider them favourites to win the whole thing. But they could definately fly under the radar and win it as some sort of surprise. We shall see.

 

Let's have a look at the debutants. We have two of them in Finland and North Macedonia. It will be interesting to see how they both fare in the upcoming tournament.

Who is the better team out of Finland and North Macedonia? I'd say Finland is as a whole the better team.
Now, who got a better chance to progress from their group? I'd say North Macedonia. Here is why:

Finland have to play favourites Belguim.
North Macedonia plays "only" the Netherlands. A team that shouldn't be considered favourites based on recent showings. Then Finland got to play Denmark and Russia both away. Denmark has been on full confidence and with the players they have they are a different caliber compared to Finland. I could see Finland grinding out a draw at best there. Then they got also Russia. A team I consider on the same level with them. Both are in my B— category. Problem is that Russia is a completely diffetent beast when playing at home. The fans on the stands push them forward and it's just a tough away venue for almost all teams.

I looked up Russia's home record since 25 years in competitive fixtures (World Cup qualfying, EURO qualfying, World Cup 2018).

It's 45—10—6

Losses came to France, Germany, Belguim, Uruguay, Slovakia and Austria.
So mostly sides who are world class or close to that (Uruguay) with Slovakia and Austria being the only middle-class teams that were able to get a win there.

This backs up my theory that winning there will be an uphill battle for Finland albeit they aren't much inferior as a side. And in order to have a chance to squeeze through the group stage you'll need certainly at least three points.

Finland got not a good draw. Their chances would be much better in every other group than in Group F. If they had Denmark and Russia at neutral venue it would have looked also a lot better. Odds are against them but they are a side that plays with a lot of heart. So I wouldn't write them off.

North Macedonia as already mentioned will play the Dutch away. This should be a loss on paper. Playing Ukraine and Austria at neutral venue though gives them the opportunity to get the three points they'll need. Especially against Austria they will like their chances. They did played them twice in the last EURO qualfying and lost both games. However Austria have looked worse since ever the end of qualfying. The opposite has been the case with North Macedonia. I think they'll have now a lot more of confidence after having sealed their tickets to the EUROs and having beaten Germany on the road in World Cup qualifying. A win over Austria wouldn't be that shocking anymore. I really think they can do it.

 

The CL Final is scheduled to take place on 29 May. Only two weeks ahead of the EUROs. National teams that might be involved with several players will get a little bit hindered in their preparation for the tournament. The players who play in the Final will have to get a few days off before they'll join their national teams.

I looked back until 1996. Interestingly only one country that had a club competing in the CL final made it also to the final of the EUROs. It was the case with Porto and Portugal in 2004. You remember maybe that Portugal started off with a shocking loss to Greece on the 1st matchday. One possible reason was that several Porto players such as Deco, Maniche and Ferrara only to cite these three out the top of my head joined the national team very late.

As it stands national teams that could be the most impacted by the CL final this year would be England, Spain and France.

On the other hand I noticed Ukraine will have a lot of time to gather their squad and prepare their team for the EUROs. The Ukranian League is set to finish on 9 May. The Cup final is scheduled for only four days later. In fact Ukraine will play its first build up friendly already on 23 May against Bahrain.
The bulk of the squad plays actually in Ukraine. Only some players are playing for clubs abroad. So this gives Shevchenko the opportunity to work more time with his players than most other nations.

Note also that the Ukranian League has only 26 matchdays. In a year where the schedule is extremely dense in most countries due to the COVID break Ukraine might arrive much more rested and in a better condition to the tournament than other nations.

 

National teams that are engaged with two squad players or more in the CL Final. I counted only those that are very likely to get called up for the EUROs.

England — 7

- Stones
- Walker
- Foden
- Sterling
- Chilwell
- James
- Mount

Germany — 4

- Rüdiger
- Werner
- Havartz
- Gündogan

Spain — 4

Eric Garcia
Laporte
Rodri
Ferran Torres

Portugal — 3

Cancelo
Dias
Bernardo Silva

France — 3

Kanté
Giroud
Zouma

Italy — 2

Jorginho
Emerson


Netherlands got only one with Ake, Belguim one with De Bruyne. If I were Southgate I wouldn't like at all that a major part of my squad joins late. The CL final is a distraction for a national team's preparations for a major tournament.