Tesla's Q1 earnings call is today at 5:30. I was listening to Bloomberg and they were saying that one of the main things people will be watching is if Elon acts like an adult or an impetuous ass. Either way, I'm not expecting anything good -- I think Tesla is entering a spiral. Their grossly overvalued stock price was destined to return to earth at some point.
Elon’s busy accusing Australia of censorship. And trying to get his $56B pay package approved. But if he says layoffs and AI enough times, stock price might hang in.
I'm not sure I get the comparison, but here's a summary: Like Truth Social, Tesla's stock is puffed up beyond all reasonable expectations based on the actual business model, because of vibes that don't represent reality. In the case of Tesla, it's self-driving and robotaxis. Some of Tesla's future stuff has some actual value, like big battery systems to capture solar power and use it when the sun isn't shining - see the article in yesterday's Washington Post about how California has too much solar power, so that power is discarded at times because not enough people are using it and there's not enough storage. Truth Social has no business model and no future potential - everything they do is done better by other companies already - it's all part of the Trump cult of personality. Unlike Truth Social, Tesla has physical stuff - factories in Nevada, Texas, and Germany, and has put a few hundred thousand cars on the road which work reasonably well (Cybertrucks not included). If Tesla stopped selling cars, there would still be some physical assets belonging to the shareholders. Compare with Truth Social, which if it stopped operating today would be left with a trivial amount of IP (intellectual property). Is that the kind of comparison you're looking for?
No I’m saying that market fundamentals have no relationship to the stock prices. The stocks are high mostly because of retail stock purchases by fan boys, and both investments are obvious bubbles propped up by cultists.
I don't think that is accurate with Tesla. Tesla's valuation is driven by regular investors, not cultists. Regular investors bought into the claim that Tesla was a tech company that was an early entrant into a disruptive technology (EV over ICE), rather than it being an auto manufacturer taking a huge risk on an unproven energy source.
Yep. I think specially from now forward, Tesla will be about if you believe in their FSD and AI. either you believe or you don't.
That's the rule for companies with growth or good potential for growth like Tesla has been up to now. Truth Social is another story.
I see the counterpoints, which are solid. The counter to the counter is that evidence suggests that counterpoint had validity in the past but now? With the latest news and the sales of the cyber truck? There’s a lot of bad news and poor leading indicators for the brand and they aren’t being reflected in the stock price, nor in the actions of the board. (The latter is more troubling in that it shows there are no guardrails that can contain Elon as he goes nuts.)
Tesla's software for their infotainment is among the best in the industry and their chargers are better than virtually any other charger out there. They may have already missed this opportunity, but they could have made A LOT of money licensing their software to traditional automakers for their EVs. CCS chargers are also giant loads of crap right now. With Tesla now allowing other car manufacturers to use their plugs and chargers, Tesla could easily become the primary manufacturer for public chargers and make a killing building chargers and selling them to the companies that operate the public chargers.
Unless a really, really catastrophic news comes out, the stock isn't simply going from $150 to $50 overnight for example. It may still be overvalued at $150, but it's already down by more than 60% from the top. It's normal for the market to wait and see if some of the problems Tesla is going through is transitory. And like I said, the story is probably still the FSD / AI angle. If the market believes in it, then it's going to still get a rich valuation because that's a new and untapped market.
Operating them? No. But selling the chargers to the operators does. As an example, Electrify America is losing money hand over fist, but the chargers they are using are absolute dog sh*t so they are down way more than the 95% uptime rate the manufacturer claims. If Electrify America were to start buying chargers from Tesla, they would have a much higher uptime and their maintenance costs would go down significantly. So while they would still be losing money, they would be losing less money.
First quarter earnings for the first quarter for Tesla are down 55% compared to last year. The stock is up in after hours trading. https://jabberwocking.com/tesla-stock-climbs-on-grim-news/
Some priced in ahead but it seems that the boost in after markets is due to Tesla substantial increase in capital expenditures and highlighting an emphasis on producing affordable EV's to better compete with China. Up 13% in aftermarket. Emphasis remains on growth and technology. If robotaxi is ever realized, it would be huge. Who knows?
Yeah my understanding is that Tesla bet on a technology and it isn’t working as well as other companies’ approaches. The thing to remember about Musk is he isn’t trained in these fields. He’s a businessman.
I get the feeling the Electric car market will focus on compact cars for the time being with cars like the Bolt and the Leaf. They appeal to the sort of driver who used to buy these.
I sincerely hope so. The American appetite for gigantic vehicles is a crime against the environment and aggressively antisocial.
Humans have eyes, therefore self driving cars should use cameras only! But then, he wasn’t really wrong about lidar either.