Okay all you know-it-alls. Let's see what you've got. Predict: Electoral College Results (as of 11/4/04) The winner of the following swing states: IA, WI, NM, OH, WV, FL The Party Representation of the Senate. Garcia, will you please close this thread first thing in the morning on 11/2? By the way, the NYT has a great graphic EV calculator: http://www.nytimes.com/packages/html/politics/2004_ELECTIONGUIDE_GRAPHIC/index_CALCULATOR.html My Entry: Kerry Kerry 306 - 232 Bush (Colo EV initiative Passes, majority EV's for Bush) IA- Kerry WI - Kerry NM - Bush OH - Bush (massive vote fraud) WV- Kerry FL - Kerry Senate: D 52 - 48 R (Net pickup of 3 for Dems)
I'm going to wait until Nov 1 to make my predictions. That gives me over a week of new information and trends. Hee hee.
I want to note before hand that I desperately...DESPERATELY want Kerry to win this election. That said...I am not very optimistic. So: Bush 276, Kerry 262 IA- Kerry WI - Bush NM - Bush OH - Bush WV- Bush FL - Kerry I dont even know where to begin with the Senate.
Let me have some fun...and torture everyone: IA- Breaks for Bush, shocking Dan Rather WI - Falls to Bushie, causing Eleanor Clift to faint NM - After a lengthy court fight, bows to Dubya, leading Bill Richardson to say, "******** You!" OH - Goes to the 'Great Communicator', prompting Big Al to say "Chads'll kick ya in the nads" WV - Bush, as Martha Stewart scrapes the bars of her cell with a tin cup. And you forgot: CO - Sides with The Sacker of Samara and Nader says, "Nader's fate in 2008!" NV - Won by Curious George and Clinton whispers to Jenna, "Congrats, baby" as he leaves their Sin City hotel room to catch a flight to Florida. But, wait...it's not over yet...! FL - In a Miami Beach hotel room with 3 models, Bill phones JK, "Good job, buddy, now make me the UN Head Honcho." And you forgot: MN - Chooses Kerry, with Jesse Ventura still refusing to speak at a post-balloting press conference OR - To Frankenjohn, leaving the Governator to declare, "Hasta la vista, Oregon, we annex you!!" NH - For J*K and Cheney grumbles "New Hampshire poses a dangerous and clear threat to the national security of this nation" PA - For Mr. Heinz, and Karl Rove swears off catsup. Promise lasts 1.4 minutes. After all the ballots are 'counted' and all the electioneering is done. Drumroll, please... George W. Bush 269 John Kerry 269 Fuel up the Gulfstreams, call the communications consultants, and warm up the shredders. It's Recount Time, baby!
Lets wait till after 11/2 Bush will win again. Then the democrates will recount the whole United states so 2 yrs from now the recount will end and Bush will still win. Then the demos will say their vote were not counted like they did before. Then on the date Bush win is final I will say see I told you so, and never post on this crap site again. Who wants to continue posting with people who post on this site any way?
What makes his scenario interesting is the Senate gets to pick the VP. Assume the Democrats regain the Senate… you could end up with the country’s first bipartisan ticket – Bush/Edwards.
that is interesting but im pretty sure that there just arent enough seats still up for grabs for the dems to regain the majority in the house or senate.. could be wrong though..
I have a feeling that Bush will win it outright this time. Then again, I'm the same guy that thinks Michigan is going to lose every week...I'm the eternal pessimist. Plus, I don't have much faith in the American people right now. I hope I'm proven wrong.
My gut feeling is that Dubya will win again, because I firmly believe in the stupidity of the American people. However, when I play around with all the various electoral college vote calculators, I seem to have no trouble coming up with scenarios according to which Kerry wins. Anyhoo: Bush Wins Iowa Kerry wins Wisconsin Kerry wins New Mexico Bush wins Ohio and West Virginia Kerry wins Florida.
You're wrong. There are eight close contests: North Carolina, South Carolina, South Dakota, Oklahoma, Alaska, Florida and Louisiana. If the Dems pick up five of those eight (not unlikely), the regain the senate. The house is a bridge too far, however.
This... And this... Don't jibe. If Kerry drops Iowa but picks up Florida, that's 280 votes. 284 if you factor in the four he'll pick up in New Hampshire. So I'll say it again: There's no way Bush can drop one of Ohio or Florida and still win the election. It's just not possible.
Can we have a prediction on the real vote vs the certified vote? Kerry - 294 Bush - 244 States that switch: OH, FL and NH to Kerry, WI and IA to Bush. No split precincts in ME or NE. And if anything, I'm being generous to Dubya here -- he hasn't been over 50% in any of those five states. I would not be surprised if all five go to Kerry. I would be very surprised at this point if Dubya takes Ohio; his appearances there have slowed to a trickle. In the Senate: stays exactly as-is. GOP picks up GA, SC, NC and ND; Dems pick up AK, CO, OK and IL. Bunning will barely win in KY.
Sure there is: Dubya wins FL, WI and either NM or IA. This seems to be their strategy at this point. It's precarious but possible.
I hate when people say Americans are stupid. That is a sign of arrogance cause you don't like how these people vote. If Kerry wins, I won't be going around calling people who voted for him stupid.
The difficult part of this is that the GOP pick-ups will be much more easy to defend in six years than the Dem pick-ups. But that's a thread for August 2010; not now.
And when Kerry picks up nine points from New Hampshire and West Virginia as well? Because he's going to win those two. Anyway, I was hyperbolizing and you're right to call me on it, but the fact remains that Bush is in big trouble if he drops Ohio and truly has no shot if he drops Florida.
Fine, call me arrogant. I'm sure the few Republicans who post here know why they are voting for Bush, but the rest of the mouth breathers like him because "he hunts and fishes like me" or "he's a straight talker" or other such intangible and frankly baffling reasons. I saw a documentary about farmers in Pennsylvania. They were explaining about how they'd never been worse off in entire their lives, but they are all voting for Bush because they are laboring under the misapprehension that he is just like them. If people knew were their bread is buttered this election wouldn't even be close.
Okay, but I did say I had no trouble coming up with scenarios under which Kerry wins. It's just a gut feeling that he won't.
I don't know enough about the various battleground states to predict their likely outcome, but I'm pretty certain Bush will win overall. When it comes down to it, you lot are just like us - inately conservative people who will always go "better the devil you know" when it comes down to it. Hope I'm wrong, but as things stand it's got to be Bush to win a close race.
If Kerry wins WV, forget it, it's over because that's an indicator of much bigger things like Kerry winning VA or TN or something miraculous like that. West Virginia is like Georgia, trending Republican and likely not coming back any time soon.
Wow, Clark uncorks a great one. I commend you on your clear thinking, just this once anyway. However, I think that your reasoning explains why dubya has a chance to win, rather than being beaten badly after a very undistinguished presidency. I wouldn't bet more than 10 bucks one way or the other on this election. My instinct tells me that Kerry is slightly more favored just because Bush hasn't been able to get above the 50% level. Even after 4 years, dubya is more of a cipher than the devil you know. I suspect that the late breaking votes will go Kerry's way.