Effect of Opportunity on Breaking Through

That's a difficult question to answer. Some of these factors can affect a player's progress but in the end if a player has real talent and great motivation and discipline he'll eventually break through. We see these stories in Europe, where players started out in lower divisions but then became players who stood out at the highest levels (Ian Wright, Djibril Cisse, Didier Drogba, Miroslav Klose, Luca Toni). Obviously, it's preferable to get an earlier start. If the talent is there having a Euro passport can be a boon. Those two years from 16-18 are so critical in developing. While he hasn't "made it" yet, Reyna is on his way, and I have no doubt getting to Dortmund early has really kickstarted his progress. But Dortmund is more than just a quality Euro destination. They seem to have a track record of promoting academy players and giving them quality minutes with the 1st team. This seems to be happening with Reyna. Had he stayed at NYCFC he still would have progressed, but I doubt at the same rate.

The other factors you mention also play a part. This is where a player's agent plays such an important role. The agent must have a great knowledge of clubs, their track record of developing and promoting from within, what players are on a particular club, and whether there's a logjam of competitors at his client's position, and where and when openings pop up due to injuries and transfers. Other factors, like playing style, the relative strength of a club (might they get relegated, might they qualify for Champions League or Europa League play, etc.) also play a part. Now, how to quantify these factors is a real challenge.

 

Here's what I was talking about with someone recently. I know there's a lot of nuances here but if Chris Richards was the same player with the same exact talent level and skill set but was from a French club like say Rennes since he was a young child where would he be? Would he have already made 25 appearances due to familiarity with the club and got his first-team debut earlier?

 

In any kind of business nothing is as helpful as intelligent parents from the same business. Too many chances to take a wrong turn otherwise.

 

You can only control so much in any career, and even the parts that you might be able to make educated decisions about could blow up in your face (or improve unexpectedly) for reasons totally out of your control.

Meanwhile, the marketplace is sufficiently complex/imperfect/whatever that most players only get so many opportunities from which to choose, even if they might be qualified, in a general sense, for many times more.

Does this mean these things shouldn't matter to players and their representatives trying to make important decisions? Obviously not, but there are limits to the value of hypothetical discussions that assume perfect information and complete choice.

Of course, that doesn't mean that players don't sometimes make bad decisions in the context of the choices available. Some guidelines are surely useful, inasmuch as they can also take into account the particulars of a player's own situation. What if, picking an example more or less at random, Sebastian Lletget had acquired his Italian passport when he was 10?

I guess these are all really obvious observation, which ultimately just boil down to that I wish, when players made choices, we knew more about their options and their decision-making process. Mostly we're guessing.

 

It's really hard/impossible to know with any degree of certainty, but I'd guess these things matter a lot for the majority of pro players. There are some guys who are so good that they would break through eventually no matter what, and there are some guys who have some clear, unfixable flaw that would prevent them from breaking through no matter what (e.g., lack of speed or ability to stay healthy). But I think for the majority of legit prospects, the margins are so slim at that level, and the differences between players are so small that a fairly minor thing could make all the difference.

 

In short, it means everything to 99.9% of players. I won't bore everyone with example after example, but opportunity is one of the 5 things clubs, agents and players discuss the most. The others being, talent, desire, timing and position.

 

I would assume -- without being in nearly the type of position as you to see this -- that this 99.9% has more to do with the identification process than the actual breaking through process. It would seem that once a player is at a club (assuming they have had the fortune to find a good fit), they have daily opportunities to prove themselves and continue developing their game.

Take Vassilev for example.... He may or may not "break through" at Villa. That will have very little to do with this little stint of exposure that he has gotten due to all of squad's injuries. Either he is good enough or not, and that is proven over the weeks and months of training and performing on field.

Take Gio Reyna as another example.... He clearly didn't need any special circumstances to go his way in order to get his opportunity. He's simply that good, and that has been recognized.

On the other hand, a player who grows up in some backwater place and has all of the talent in the world and a great mentality probably won't ever get his chance -- not because of a lack of breaks that get him over that last hurdle but because a lack of being identified that prevents him from ever even starting on that path. There could be 100 other examples that characterize identification issues, and this includes players who wind up as pros but in shitty situations and, therefore, never make it to their potential.

I would think that the luck is more in being spotted (at least by the right club) and put in the best situations than it is in the guy in front of you blowing his knee and allowing you a run of starts.

 

If I remember right Rashford only broke through after a bunch of guys ahead of him got hurt and then he just kept scoring. I think these little stints have more effect than you think because most coaches won't send someone down until they stop producing.

 

Rashford is 22 years old and has 133 appearances. My hunch is that he would still have plenty of appearances at this point in his career even if whoever it was in front of him hadn't gotten hurt, but who knows.

 

It all depends on what you mean by, "breaks through". Get minutes in pro soccer? Play a decently long career at any level? 50+ caps in the Champions League?

Thinking the goal of every player is the last one, at least at some point until they realize it isn't going to happen and cry on the phone with their parents...

Talent is probably first. Physicality, and I know it is not pc to say it, is probably second or equal. You have to have an elite athletic tool or overall profile to make it to the top. Mentality is also a pre-requisite; when you get a chance or encounter a set back you have to be able to take it or overcome it.

After that, it could be where you were born. Born in a climate that can play soccer year round is helpful. Born somewhere where the game is ubiquitous is helpful. Later, being from an EU country is enormously helpful. Within the USA, where your born can probably separate you right away. Maybe in your town they don't play soccer, or there are no good coaches for miles, or you fall within the HG territory of New England or Atlanta...

After watching prospects around the USA, I'd also throw in representation. If your parents can't guide you well (e.g. Pulisic, Reyna) then you have to have a good agent. Getting to the right club with an opportunity as quickly as possible can be as simple as having an agent that can do that. An agent that won't sign you with an expansion MLS team for five years with no development plan.