Cristiano Ronaldo ~ Your Favorite Player Is So Much Better!! Thread

When we actually research what the guy from WH has to say:


Players start with a 6 rating by default - and that's average. "Below 8" is not poor by DESIGN / DEFINITION of the guy who actually built it. Case dismissed. You arbitrarily set it there to prove a nonexistent point based on a rating system... you supposedly don't even rate.
Your "dismissal" of Castrol Ratings is predictable. I've seen the charade for 10 years. Pick one small point that you conceive as a potential weakness to take down the whole. You have yet to say why we should opt for OPTA besides your gut feeling - which is a fundamentally flawed argument.
You also tried to dismiss Castrol based on lack of transparency - yet you readily use systems WITH LESS EXPLANATION.
At this point, it is too obvious you have a double standard, and this conversation is ended and a waste of my time.
Even when WS ratings are higher for Ronaldo, you have some alternative spin. It's tiring and bogs down the value of debates here.

Ronaldo's avg. match rating for career and UCL is below 8. Your whole methodology is... rejected. Since you expect Ronaldo to be lower than 8 more often than not - unless you want to say that Ronaldo was on avg poor as a player. It's your only way out.

 

We've been over this with concrete evidence of off-ball movement for example. We are turning in circles. Your "huge impact" is a figment of your imagination and was never supported by any data/evidence.

While we're at it, I would like you to back up the following claims:
1) Messi dropped deeper in later years (contradicted by heatmap and touch data)
2) Messi dropped deeper in tough CL matches to help the team (never seen any evidence)

I have found no evidence to corroborate this. All I found is reduced touch volume in the penalty box and shot volume in the penalty box which is NOT the same thing.

How about you start proving some of the "convenient claims" of yours.

 

I obviously never said below 8 is poor. I said it wasn’t amazing. That chart bears that out completely.

And I didn’t “dismiss Castrol based on lack of transparency.” I noted it has significant underlying data issues, and then said that beyond that it also of course has the same issues as WhoScored and SofaScore. The only time I mentioned how much transparency there was on it was in response to you saying that other metrics aren’t “explained” and I said Castrol isn’t either. It turns out there’s a bit of an explanation, but it’s tremendously vague (we have absolutely no idea how they weigh anything or exactly what data they’re weighing), so my point there stands, but it was only a retort to something you’d argued about other ratings, rather than being an actual affirmative point that I based an argument on.

 

Less vague than WS or Sofascore that you use.
Do you want me to quote you saying "below 8" was poor. Ie when the player played poorly, the team carried? Save me the clicks please.

 

You just refuse to acknowledge the massive impact of certain things Messi provides. That’s fine. I think most people understand it. We can move on.

As for Messi dropping deeper, you can watch the matches and see the role Messi played over the years and in particular matches. This isn’t a controversial point. As for heat map data on it, we don’t really have consistent heat map data we can compare for the years and specific matches that are before what I’m talking about, as SofaScore’s heat maps start at 2015-2016. But you can look at heat maps for specific tough matches in recent years, and I’d say they generally bear out the point. He was only the highest up by average position in 2 of the 7 away matches in ties they lost (both matches where Suarez got so few actual touches that his heat map is only dark in the very middle of the pitch obviously from the start of the match and half, so that obviously skewed his positioning), and was as often the 4th highest up by average position as he was 1st. And that’s all despite taking corners, which hugely skews average positioning. Of course, it’s also the case that heat maps don’t show everything I’m talking about (heat maps are only tracking touches not positioning, so if Messi drops deep and is marked and that leaves someone else open who gets a pass and progresses the ball, then that won’t show up on Messi’s heat map at all; and if Messi or Suarez or someone is positioned high up and makes a run for a final ball that doesn’t reach them, it doesn’t show up in the heat map). Ultimately, you’re not even really denying this, since “reduced touch volume in the penalty box” is obviously reflective of a deeper role. I’m not suggesting Messi played as a pure CM or DM or something. I’m just saying he wasn’t positioned as often in the furthest forward areas from which it is easiest to score. You’re welcome to go back and watch a bunch of Messi matches to see it. This isn’t a controversial point and I don’t think it’s worth spending much time arguing about.

Go ahead. The wording I’ve pretty consistently used on this is to say “not amazing.”

An example here where I used that language a ton of times in just one single post: https://www.bigsoccer.com/threads/c...ch-better-thread.2011827/page-7#post-41716874. Another one with the same language: https://www.bigsoccer.com/threads/c...ch-better-thread.2011827/page-5#post-41716607. And another one: https://www.bigsoccer.com/threads/c...ch-better-thread.2011827/page-4#post-41714539. And Another one: https://www.bigsoccer.com/threads/c...ch-better-thread.2011827/page-3#post-41708767.

You’ll rarely find someone using more consistent wording about something. I did also use the term “didn’t dominate”: https://www.bigsoccer.com/threads/c...ch-better-thread.2011827/page-6#post-41716746.

I’ve been very clear with what I’m saying, and if you read all of that and still misinterpreted what I said, then that’s on you. You’re arguing a straw man. Even just at a basic level, it’s obvious from the points I’ve made that below 8 isn’t “poor” because part of my point is that Messi is one of the only players to lose a tie when he averaged above that. Obviously, it’s not a line for “poor” if teams virtually never lose when their best player is above it. You’re arguing a straw man, when actually the chart from WhoScored that you provided is completely in line with what I’ve said.

______

On Castrol, if you don’t know exactly what stats they used in their formula or how they weighed them, then it’s just as vague how they got their rating. You’re saying it’s less vague because of a video that generally describes some of the data they used, but that’s not any more information than the fact that we can see from WhoScored’s website most or all of the stats they track. In both cases, we know what a lot of the data they have is, but we don’t know exactly what they choose to use in their rating or how they weight it. You’re making a distinction where there is none.

 

As I clearly said:
1) No evidence Messi increased his touch volume in deeper zones or received balls in deeper zones.
IF you are going to repeatedly make this unsubstantiated claim as the BEDROCK of your arguments, back it up.
I have seen NO evidence to that point. On the contrary.
2) No evidence Messi adopted deeper positioning in tougher match ups.
NO evidence to that point.

3) The only evidence I can find is that Messi reduced HIS TOUCH and SHOT VOLUME in the box. Which makes sense given his reduced athleticism and ability to make runs in the box. This is NOT an indication of being more participatory in Phase 2 (or Phase 1) buildup.

The rest of the argument is so petty and uninteresting, that you can have it and be content. We are out of the bounds of discussing football. AND NO EVIDENCE or thing I can say will change your stance.

 

2020/21
@OffTheBallMovement
Messi receiving the ball at a closer distance to the net than Ronaldo, Mbappe, Toko Ekambi

 

@lessthanjake
Your key claim is that Messi adopted deeper positions and increases his participation in phase 2/1 build-up play, and that he did so over the years in progressive fashion to make up for weakening midfield. You also claimed that this is something he did in "tougher matches" which explains the "massive value he offers" that is not "not captured by G+A or other stats".
I can quote you.

 

You yourself have pointed out that touches in more possession-based systems tend to be closer to goal without being better goalscoring positions. The question is how often Messi was the player positioned in the team’s most optimal spot to score (i.e. in the spots where you’ll be best positioned to receive a final ball from someone for a high-quality chance). This is only tangentially related to that question (heat maps only measure touches, not overall positioning, and positioning in the above-described manner doesn’t actually result in tons of touches far up the pitch since the final ball isn’t often actually completed; so it doesn’t really affect heat maps a ton). Anyone who watched Messi’s and Ronaldo’s teams knows that Messi was positioned like that far less than Ronaldo, especially in later years. If you want to argue that point, then I guess feel free to do so, but it’s really just not a controversial point. Nor should it be controversial that Messi positioned like that less often in later years and often less against tough teams. It’s not really an interesting point to discuss, since you’re just fighting what should not be a controversial point at all, and doing so while conceding Messi had less touch volume in the box (which actually goes to the point) and previously basing an entire argument on Messi being positioned like that less in later years. I don’t really want to discuss this further, and would suggest watching a bunch of full matches across various years if you’re curious to see this in action.

 

Okay, I will be quoting your claims, since you are clearly permutating what you said. I will have to quote you.

I maintain the following CLEAR assertions:
1) You have NOT demonstrated that Messi actively spent more time in build-up as Barcelona's midifield regressed.
2) You have NOT demonstrated that Messi spent more time in build-up in tough match-ups.

These are things you claimed, and my own searches have retrieved NO evidence of this.
As such, in the absence of corroborating evidence, these foundational "claims" are rejected.

I have watched thousands of hours of Messi - no thank you.
Messi's shot-creating ability lowered as his dribbling/athletic capacity regressed. He lost the engine to hound the ball, force turnovers, make sprints behind defensive lines at any appreciable rate. He also faced defenses that quickly adapted to Barcelona's game. His goalscoring repertoire is also limited. This is the true reason why his production falls off a cliff in tough matches.

How on earth is 5'7 Messi supposed to have any meaningful presence in the box, when he can't head the ball? This is the silliest statement I've ever heard. Are you suggesting Messi should be in the box???

 

If you aren’t aware that, in general in later years, Messi was a bit more involved in build-up play and was less often in those positions most optimal to receive the final ball, then I’d contest the idea that you “watched thousands of hours of Messi.” Like, you can reject what I’m saying as much as you want, but that doesn’t make you right. Responding to you on BigSoccer can’t be a full-time job. I don’t feel the need to spend a bunch of my time trying to dig up data/information/videos to prove what should be an uncontroversial point, especially when you yourself have already conceded evidence that goes to the point (less touch and shot volume in the box). And it’s certainly not worth arguing over this point as it relates to comparing the positioning and involvement in build-up of Messi and Ronaldo. Messi always was involved a good deal in build-up play, with the difference between earlier and later years just being a matter of degree. Obviously Messi has a substantial advantage in this regard over Ronaldo, regardless of what years we’re talking about. Messi was always providing significant value for his team that way, in a manner that largely doesn’t show up in stats—it’s just that he did it even more in certain years and situations, which can help explain certain goalscoring changes.

(And, of course, it’s obviously also true that even if we held his role constant, he’d naturally end up having fewer chances and scoring less when his team’s midfield went downhill—for instance, not having prime Xavi matters, particularly in tough games. So that’s naturally a factor there, independent of the tactical shifts surrounding that).

 

I have done my own research and I find no evidence that Messi's positioning and touch volume became more prominent in buildup phases.

You have made two unsubstantiated claims:
1) Messi became more participatory in phase 1/phase 2 buildup, and so played farther from the net as time went on to make up for a weakening midfield
2) he also selectively did so in tougher matches, hence lower production

These two claims are fictitious and unproven. The onus is on you to back up your EXCUSES and JUSTIFICATIONS.

You have not provided of the sort and as such the simplest and most obvious answer to why Messi's production tanked is that his ability regressed and thay he was neutered against big teams. The simplest answer is usually the most correct one.
He became a less athletic less productive player.
He has less assets for goal production than Ronaldo.

For the record every piece of data I have observed contradicts / does not support those two claims.

He also scored and assisted less in his prime with a prime Xavi. This has been demonstrated conclusively.

 

LOL, even if you wrongly think there was no tactical shift in Messi’s role, just on its face the fact that his midfield/fullbacks went substantially downhill (not to mention managers going downhill) is obviously going to have a major effect on his chances and goalscoring, particularly in the toughest matches. It’s an 11v11 sport (and on top of that managers matter probably even more than individual players these days, particularly in tough matches). Your “simplest answer” is just a conclusion that you want to be true and that is lacking in even the most remote accounting for obvious context.

Lol, he literally set the record for most goals in a calendar year, with prime Xavi.

 

We're talking champions league and away cl matches. Ie. the data provided earlier. No need to bring in irrelvant facts like him winning a WC or wtvr. We looked at his production in his best years.
You're just waffling. We've provided clear evidence of production. For you to dismiss it will require at least a minimum of evidence of extroardinary claims.

I can easily demonstrate thay Messi's athletic ability declined. Easy to demonstrate with hard data. Are you claiming it did not? Yes or no?

I will add: YOU are the guy who claimed Messi was an AM but he got lots of goals because his engine allowed him to drive into the box. Obviously the loss of that engine had consequences.

Further, I don't wish anything. I am stayimg observations and data. I have a high opinion of Messi. The only reason my texts veer into criticisms is due to the extroardinsry and false claims Messiphiles advance.

 

Briefly, on the shift in Messi’s involvement in build-up compared to his involvement as the tip of the spear as the years went by and Barcelona’s midfield deteriorated, I forgot that I’d actually found this a while back and that it basically conclusively demonstrates my point:





This shows a few related things:

- The Net Possession Value of Messi’s passes made up an increasingly higher percent of Barcelona’s Net Possession Value as the years went by. At the same time, the percent of the team’s Net Possession Value made up of passes that Messi received went down as the years went by. This clearly reflects someone whose role has shifted more towards being the one progressing the ball to more dangerous areas, and away from being the player receiving the ball in more dangerous areas.

- Messi’s share of Barcelona’s Deep Possession Value (i.e. value of passes from outside the attacking third) went dramatically up as the years went by. This reflects a very significant difference in the extent to which Messi was dropping back and progressing the ball from deep areas.

- More generally, Messi’s share of the team’s overall progressive passing distance went up a lot.

These very clearly show the shift in role that I was talking about, and should conclusively shut the door on an issue that really shouldn’t have been necessary to discuss.

 

Percent not volume. This says absolutely nothing. This does not at all corroborate that that he "dropped deeper" and participated more. His share of goals assists also increased, doesn't mean he was scoring more.
This is elementary.
Barcelona in Messi's final years developed Messidependencia. That was very clear.

 

LOL, keep cooking, buddy. Obviously someone whose passes make up a substantially higher percent of his team’s progression and who receives a substantially lower percent of his team’s progression to dangerous areas has a different role that’s more focused on build-up and less focused on being the tip of the spear. That issue is answered and finished. We can move on.

 

I'm going to quote you on percentages so you can face your own contradictions head on.
You have absolutely not shown that Messi increases his touch volume in deeper zones.
We know Barcelona's possession game dropped, they became more counterattacking. Naturally, Messi was more involved in relative terms. Not in absolute terms. The absolute volume is almost certainly lower than his younger days. Not higher.

 

LOL, a guy who is more involved in progression in relative teams and less the tip of the spear in relative terms has a very different role. And a difference in role is what we were discussing. That discussion is over. You asked for evidence, you received conclusive evidence, and are now just flailing.

And by the way, if you want to curve down his later progression because Barcelona was better in the past and had more progression overall, then you’d have to curve down his possession value received too, which would create an even bigger contrast between how much he received the ball in dangerous areas in earlier years compared to later years. It defeats your point even more. It’s just a discussion that is over and never should have had any time spent on it to begin with.

 

You are a master at redirection and permutation of arguments. A subtle and sophisticated form of gaslighting.

Allow me to redirect us to what was claimed:

"1) No evidence Messi increased his touch volume in deeper zones or received balls in deeper zones.
IF you are going to repeatedly make this unsubstantiated claim as the BEDROCK of your arguments, back it up.
I have seen NO evidence to that point. On the contrary.
2) No evidence Messi adopted deeper positioning in tougher match ups."

A CLEAR REMINDER of what was said. On a boat headed to the Atlantic, you ship us off to the Indian ocean.

The ABOVE STATEMENTS which are the BASIS of your arguments have NOT been addressed. This is a fact.

Frankly, it is getting tiring redirecting the conversation every time it gets derailed. These were two statements that remain unaddressed.

As for percentages, it's a whole big joke. You know that in a fraction you can have a higher value with a lower numerator, if the denominator is disproportionately smaller.
You MADE THIS ARGUMENT FOR PER TOUCH ANALYSIS. Don't you dare switch now.


____________
A last reminder of the exact points of discussion:

 

The evidence speaks for itself. Anyone else reading this will see I was right, and you’ll never admit it, so the conversation has run its course. I’m not going to continue wasting my time playing whack-a-mole when I’ve conclusively proven I was right that Messi’s role changed to be more focused on build-up/progression and less focused on being the tip of the spear.

 

Conversation concluded.
The following points are outstanding claims to justify Messi's lower production in CL:
"1) No evidence Messi increased his touch volume in deeper zones or received balls in deeper zones.
IF you are going to repeatedly make this unsubstantiated claim as the BEDROCK of your arguments, back it up.
I have seen NO evidence to that point. On the contrary.
2) No evidence Messi adopted deeper positioning in tougher match ups."

Have not been addressed.
Good day and thank you for your efforts.

 

It´s actually extremely Obvious if u watch Messi from like 2014 to 2022 it´s not even a debate for me it´s obvious

 

Like I said, I did a deep dive and I find NO EVIDENCE that Messi's volume of touches deeper increases, that his positioning deepens either OVER TIME or against TOUGH OPPONENTS.
I will trust actual data science over eye test in this capacity:

The deepest positioning seasons were 2004/2005 to 2007/08

Here is another visualization of every touch every season



The discussion is over. I will not be debating further. The data is all here for all to see.

Messi vs Real Madrid 2008/09

Messi vs PSG (0-4 Loss) 2017 UCL




Messi vs Arsenal 2010


Messi vs Nigeria WC 2010



Messi touch map vs Athletic 2019


Messi vs Real Madrid 2020



Messi vs Villareal 2020


Messi vs Poland 2022


I am not open to discussing this further. We have Messi's touch data and no evidence has been presented of:

1) Higher volume of touches deeper as Barcelona's midfield regressed
2) Higher volume of touches deeper in tougher match ups
These were the xplanations provided for worse production in CL / CL away / CL knockouts throughout his career.

 

For reference, this is what a Benzema touch map looks like:


La Liga 2021-22

The data here is not complete. The season was not over when it was compiled.

Ronaldo 2019-20 Touch Map (serie a)