soooo, where are we in this process? middle? on the downside? apparently the stock market seems to think we’re at the beginning of the end. I’m thinking we have another couple of weeks of SIP followed by a two month gradual easing of restrictions while monitoring key data (who knows, maybe even access to testing one day) such as new cases and deaths with a return to heightened restrictions if things start trending the wrong way again.
It should bother you that experts are lying to your face by claiming their models of coronavirus deaths didn't account for social distancing.There's a reason that these models aren't being open-sourced.You don't even know what the inputs are!— Cernovich (@Cernovich) April 9, 2020
We're in California. Kommandant Newsom will do everything in his power to keep us locked up past the first Tuesday in November. That's been the plan all along. Newsom has already announced, no NFL being played in California this fall. So believe him, if you don't believe me.
You're not smart enough to figure it out? The models are lies. Deliberate falsehoods, as I told you before. That's why they won't open source them and show you the garbage-in inputs designed to derive garbage-out outputs.
There’s a big range of options between where we are now and packing Levi’s. I don’t believe for a second that was the plan all along. Makes no sense. The governor will make the rights calls based on the data, I believe.
Hundred bucks says we will still be in shelter-in-place in California come November unless somehow Trump forces Newsom's hand.
lol. Who’s being insulting now? I just disagree on your premise, there no great bamboozling of the public going on. Has greater emphasis been placed on saving lives now over impact to the economy? Yes. I happen to think these Newsom measures are the fastest track to rebooting the economy. SIP has proved to be our only real weapon to fight this. A piece meal approach was always going to be too confusing and ineffective and, likely to mean a longer spread cycle and slower return to normalcy.
I won’t bet on how the decisions are made but I will bet $100 bucks we won’t be on SIP in Nov. or August for that matter.
I'm sorry Don, but earlier in this thread you were touting that there will be less deaths than H1N1 and then less deaths than a typical flu season and we should just ride it out. All because you quoted some papers and opinion pieces that had a model that predicted what you hoped would happen. We are a long way from being done from deaths from Covid-19 in the US, we will have more in the next few months, we will have a second wave and we might even have a third wave so don't count those models out just yet.
We still have fewer deaths than a typical flu season. And maybe still even fewer than H1N1. The coronavirus death figures are showing themselves to be curiously unreliable, as well. 1247682498185711616 is not a valid tweet id
Show me any reliable source that's shows we have less than H1N1? And remembered SIP drastically slowed the spread which is not done for the Flu so that is apples to oranges but we can let time tell.
I said "maybe." And I showed a reliable source for believing the COVID-19 death rate may be overstated. The White House briefing by Dr. Brix. COVID-19 recorded deaths include deaths whether or not caused by the virus. As for flu deaths, the CDC says the death rate in a given year is estimated at 12,000 to 61,000. https://www.health.com/condition/cold-flu-sinus/how-many-people-die-of-the-flu-every-year Your apples-to-oranges deflection is disingenuous, because you accuse me of mis-predicting that ordinary flu deaths would likely outnumber coronavirus deaths. And yet my prediction in that regard is looking like it will be correct. The models are already predicting COVID-19 deaths at 60,000, within the range of an ordinary flu season, and the models keep getting lower for the coronavirus deaths.
Los Angeles Times article from yesterday. In case you want to retract your bet. California won’t be lifting coronavirus stay-at-home rules anytime soon. Here’s why https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-08/california-coronavirus-trends
Thanks but I’m looking forward to a nice steak dinner and some sweet front row seats at a Quakes game in 2021.
The flu projections include a vaccine in lieu of shelter-in-place. And still the flu is more deadly in a typical year.
Give it time. You already said 12 to 60K for the flu, not sure what you believe is typical but we can wait to see. I have near heard of New York running out of PPE during the flu season and that is with normal hospital procedures still occurring. I've never heard of CA agreeing to buy 140 million masks a month in a typical flu season. So yeah, keep spreading that Covid-19 is no worse than the typical flu.
We've given the virus sufficient time for the models to reduce their death estimates from 2.2 million to 60,000. Yeah, I think if we give it time, those estimates will continue to decline precipitously.
One new death in Santa Clara County today (47 total). https://www.sccgov.org/sites/phd/DiseaseInformation/novel-coronavirus/Pages/dashboard.aspx