Concacaf Qualifying For World Cup 2022 Prediction Contest: Round 1 [R]

I don't know if people care or understand how much I weight each round to make it add up to 100, but I'll post the changes to Round 1 because Saint Lucia dropped out. Round 1 predictions get evaluated in six ways. Part C is the simplest, which is 1 point for each group winner. Nobody predicted Saint Lucia to win their group, so I'm leaving that alone. Next I looked at Part D, which is 0.4 (exact), 0.24 (one spot off), or 0.08 (two spots off) for standings predictions for second through fifth, with no points if you are wrong about whether or not a team wins each group. This was going to be 24 teams that won't win their group x 0.4 each = 9.6. With one fewer team, I decreased it to 23 x 0.4 = 9.2. Then I looked at Part B, which is points off in the standings for the teams combined done separately for each group. This was going to be worth 1.1 per group for a total of 6.6. Conveniently, I added the 0.4 that I took away from from Part D to make 7, which allowed me to make five groups worth 1.25 and Group E that would have had Saint Lucia be worth 0.75. Group E will have 6/10ths as many games and 6/10ths the value of the other groups. Part A is the score predictions for each group done separately. The top person in each group gets a perfect score, the worst person gets 0, and everyone else is distributed proportionally in between depending on how many points away from the best person and worst person everyone is. In Post 1 I stated how I evaluate score predictions out of 4, which makes a score out of 40 for Groups A, B, C, D, and F; and a score out of 24 for Group E. The groups combined are worth 13.2 points, which was going to be 2.2 per group. I changed it to 2.35 for Groups A, B, C, D, and F; and 1.45 for Group E. 6/10ths of 2.35 is 1.41, and I made it worth slightly more so I did not have to make another component worth 0.04 more.

 

FIFA says St. Kitts and Nevis vs. Puerto Rico (in the Dominican Republic) is in the 10th minute like it started at 4:08 P.M., Soccerway has the time as if it started at 4:00 P.M., and Flash Score thinks it will start at 7:00 P.M. FIFA doesn't have commentary other than saying the referee started the game. Not having as much information available is a downside of following WCQs in Concacaf compared to UEFA.

No more predictions for March games can be made.

 

@SetPeace

You can predict June and the last two rounds. You missed 28.8 percent of the competition from the March score predictions and standings predictions, but you can play without caring about being the overall winner, and it would be an accomplishment for whoever has the best Octagonal predictions. For past WCQs, plenty of people have picked only some of the competition.

I'm not going to post scores until after all 28 games this month.

 

I decided to evaluate the score predictions as one part not broken down by groups. The score predictions are 13.2 percent, and I can't say how they will convert to 13.2 until after the round ends. So far there have been 28 games. Each prediction gets 4, 3, 2, or 0, so the maximum was 112. Here is how many points everybody has:

Tied 1. barnabyjonez: 62
Tied 1. jagum: 62
3. EvanJ: 60
Tied 4. IASocFan: 58
Tied 4. Dr. Gamera: 58
6. edcalvi: 56
7. Paul Calixte: 54
8. italiancbr: 51
Mean = 57.625

Here is how many correct results each person has:

Tied 1. EvanJ: 24
Tied 1. barnabyjonez: 24
Tied 1. jagum: 24
Tied 1. edcalvi: 24
Tied 5. Dr. Gamera: 23
Tied 5. italiancbr: 23
Tied 7. IASocFan: 22
Tied 7. Paul Calixte: 22
Mean = 23.25
Most games had everybody pick the same team.

Here is how many exactly scores each person has:

Tied 1. jagum: 5
Tied 1. IASocFan: 5
Tied 3. EvanJ: 3
Tied 3. barnabyjonez: 3
Tied 5. Dr. Gamera: 2
Tied 5. Paul Calixte: 2
7. edcalvi: 1
8. italiancbr: 0

Here are a list of everybody's exact scores:

jagum:
Suriname 3-0 Cayman Islands
Guatemala 1-0 Cuba
Montserrat 1-1 El Salvador
Grenada 1-0 US Virgin Islands
St. Vincent and the Grenadines 3-0 British Virgin Islands

IASocFan:
Suriname 3-0 Cayman Islands
Guatemala 1-0 Cuba
El Salvador 2-0 Grenada
Haiti 2-0 Belize
British Virgin Islands 0-3 Guatemala

EvanJ:
Antigua and Barbuda 2-2 Montserrat
Suriname 3-0 Cayman Islands
St. Vincent and the Grenadines 3-0 British Virgin Islands

barnabyjonez:
El Salvador 2-0 Grenada
US Virgin Islands 0-3 Antigua and Barbuda
Montserrat 1-1 El Salvador

Dr. Gamera:
Suriname 3-0 Cayman Islands
El Salvador 2-0 Grenada

Paul Calixte:
Aruba 0-6 Suriname
Cuba 1-2 Curacao

edcalvi:
Montserrat 1-1 El Salvador

I also kept track of how many points there were from each game, and I'll post that if somebody wants to know.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_–_CONCACAF_First_Round has the sites and start times, so people can make predictions. 17 will be hosted by the team listed first, 10 are at neutral sites, and Panama hosts Anguilla in what was supposed to be a home game for Anguilla, albeit I don't know if Anguilla would have hosted even without COVID. None of the groups have the two March 8 games at the same time, but it may not matter because the 2 seed is at the 1 seed in every group that day, and the other game could be between two eliminated teams. Here is the schedule with all times USA Eastern:

Wednesday June 2:
A: Montserrat vs. U.S. Virgin Islands in San Cristobal, Dominican Republic at 4:00 P.M.
B: Cayman Islands vs. Aruba in Bradenton, Florida, USA at 6:00 P.M.
C: Cuba vs. British Virgin Islands in Guatemala City, Guatemala at 5:30 P.M.
D: Dominica vs. Anguilla at 3:00 P.M.
E: No game because St. Lucia withdrew
F: Puerto Rico vs. Bahamas at 6:00 P.M.

Friday June 4:
A: Antigua and Barbuda vs. Grenada at 4:00 P.M.
B: Suriname vs. Grenada at 6:00 P.M.
C: Guatemala vs. St. Vincent and the Grenadines at 6:00 P.M.
D: Dominican Republic vs. Barbados at 7:00 P.M.
E: Nicaragua vs. Belize at 9:00 P.M.
F: St. Kitts and Nevis vs. Guyana at 4:00 P.M.

Saturday June 5:
A: U.S. Virgin Islands vs. El Salvador at 7:00 P.M.
B: Aruba vs. Canada in Bradenton, Florida, USA at 8:00 P.M.
C: British Virgin Islands vs. Curacao in Guatemala City, Guatemala at 10:00 P.M.
D: Anguilla vs. Panama in Panama City, Panama at 8:00 P.M.
E: Turks and Caicos Islands vs. Haiti at 2:00 P.M.
F: Bahamas vs. Trinidad and Tobago at 5:00 P.M.

Tuesday June 8:
A: Grenada vs. Montserrat at 7:00 P.M.
A: El Salvador vs. Antigua and Barbuda at 9:05 P.M.
B: Bermuda vs. Cayman Islands in Bradenton, Florida, USA at 8:00 P.M.
B: Canada vs. Suriname in Bridgeview, Illinois (where Chicago Fire play), USA at 9:05 P.M.
C: St. Vincent and the Grenadines vs. Cuba in St. George's, Grenada at 4:00 P.M.
C: Curacao vs. Guatemala at 8:00 P.M.
D: Barbados vs. Dominica in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic at 7:00 P.M.
D: Panama vs. Dominican Republic at 10:00 P.M.
E: Haiti vs. Nicaragua at 5:00 P.M. (only one game because St. Lucia withdrew)
F: Guyana vs. Puerto Rico at 3:30 P.M.
F: Trinidad and Tobago vs. St. Kitts and Nevis in San Cristobal, Dominican Republic at 6:00 P.M.

Here are the start time frequencies:
2:00 P.M. 1
3:00 P.M. 1
3:30 P.M. 1
4:00 P.M. 4
5:00 P.M. 2
5:30 P.M. 1
6:00 P.M. 5
7:00 P.M. 4
8:00 P.M. 4
9:00 P.M. 1
9:05 P.M. 2
10:00 P.M. 2

 

You have until the first game on June 2 starts. It is one deadline for all games.

I'm now in the Central Time Zone, so 10:00 P.M. Eastern games will end about 11:00 P.M. my time.

The Nations League will have Semifinals on June 3 and Final and Third Place Game on June 6, so five consecutive days and six of seven will have games.

 

Here are my predictions:

June 2:
A: Montserrat 3-1 U.S. Virgin Islands
B: Cayman Islands 1-1 Aruba
C: Cuba 3-1 British Virgin Islands
D: Dominica 4-1 Anguilla
E: No game because St. Lucia withdrew
F: Puerto Rico 3-1 Bahamas

June 4:
A: Antigua and Barbuda 2-1 Grenada
B: Suriname 3-1 Bermuda
C: Guatemala 3-1 St. Vincent and the Grenadines
D: Dominican Republic 2-0 Barbados
E: Nicaragua 3-1 Belize
F: St. Kitts and Nevis 2-0 Guyana

June 5:
A: U.S. Virgin Islands 0-3 El Salvador
B: Aruba 0-7 Canada
C: British Virgin Islands 1-6 Curacao
D: Anguilla 1-4 Panama
E: Turks and Caicos Islands 0-5 Haiti
F: Bahamas 0-3 Trinidad and Tobago

June 8 (2 games per group):
A: Grenada 1-2 Montserrat, El Salvador 2-1 Antigua and Barbuda
B: Bermuda 4-1 Cayman Islands, Canada 3-1 Suriname
C: St. Vincent and the Grenadines 2-2 Cuba, Curacao 2-1 Guatemala
D: Barbados 2-1 Dominica, Panama 2-1 Dominican Republic
E: Haiti 2-1 Nicaragua (one game because St. Lucia withdrew)
F: Guyana 1-2 Puerto Rico, Trinidad and Tobago 1-0 St. Kitts and Nevis

Everybody's standings predictions will be defined as only from their predictions, not their June predictions added to the current standings. That means that people's standings predictions could be impossible. Here are my standings predictions:

Group A:
El Salvador: 12 points, +8
Antigua and Barbuda: 7 points, +2
Montserrat: 7 points, +1
Grenada: 3 points, +0
U.S. Virgin Islands: 0 points, -11

Group B:
Canada: 12 points, +17
Suriname: 9 points, +5
Bermuda: 6 points, -1
Cayman Islands: 1 point, -10
Aruba: 1 point, -11

Group C:
Curacao: 10 points, +8
Guatemala: 9 points, +7
Cuba: 5 points, +0
St. Vincent and the Grenadines: 4 points, -1
British Virgin Islands: 0 points, -14

Group D:
Panama: 12 points, +10
Dominican Republic: 9 points, +4
Barbados: 6 points, -1
Dominica: 3 points, -1
Anguilla: 0 points, -12

Group E:
Haiti: 9 points, +9
Nicaragua: 6 points, +2
Belize: 3 points, -3
Turks and Caicos Islands: 0 points, -8
There are four teams because St. Lucia withdrew

Group F:
Trinidad and Tobago: 12 points, +6
St. Kitts and Nevis: 7 points, +2
Puerto Rico: 3 points, +1
Guyana: 3 points, -2
Bahamas: 1 point, -7

 

@IASocFan
@Dr. Gamera
@italiancbr
@edcalvi

Are you going to make predictions? The schedule is in Post 33, and all 28 games must be predicted before the first game on June 2 starts. I posted my standings predictions. Here are the standings predictions for the other three people who predicted the whole round. That is based on if all of their predictions are or were correct, not adding their June predictions to the current standings, so some of these standings can be impossible:

barnabyjonez

Group A:
El Salvador: 10, +7
Antigua and Barbuda: 7, +4
Montserrat: 6, +5
Grenada: 4, +0
U.S. Virgin Islands: 0, -16

Group B:
Canada: 12, +18
Bermuda: 7, +5
Suriname: 7, +4
Cayman Islands: 3, -14
Aruba: 0, -13

Group C:
Guatemala: 10, +10
Curacao: 8, +8
Cuba: 5, +3
St. Vincent and the Grenadines: 4, -1
British Virgin Islands: 0, -20

Group D:
Panama: 12, +13
Dominican Republic: 7, +3
Barbados: 6, -2
Dominica: 3, -3
Anguilla: 1, -11

Group E (four teams because St. Lucia withdrew):
Haiti: 9, +6
Nicaragua: 6, +7
Belize: 3, -1
Turks and Caicos Islands: 0, -12

Group F:
Trinidad and Tobago: 12, +10
St. Kitts and Nevis: 7, +2
Guyana: 6, +1
Puerto Rico: 4, -2
Bahamas: 0, -11

jagum

Group A:
El Salvador: 10, +6
Montserrat: 7, +3
Antigua and Barbuda: 6, +0
Grenada: 6, -1
U.S. Virgin Islands: 0, -8

Group B:
Canada: 12, +13
Suriname: 9, +6
Bermuda: 6, -1
Cayman Islands: 3, -5
Aruba: 0, -13

Group C:
Curacao: 10, +8
Guatemala: 10, +7
Cuba: 4, +0
St. Vincent and the Grenadines: 4, -1
British Virgin Islands: 0, -14

Group D:
Panama: 12, +13
Dominican Republic: 9, +4
Barbados: 6, +1
Dominica: 3, -5
Anguilla: 0, -13

Group E (four teams because St. Lucia withdrew):
Haiti: 7, +8
Nicaragua: 7, +6
Belize: 3, -4
Turks and Caicos Islands: 0, -10

Group F:
Trinidad and Tobago: 9, +9
Guyana: 7, +4
Puerto Rico: 7, +2
St. Kitts and Nevis: 6, -2
Bahamas: 0, -13

Paul Calixte

Group A:
El Salvador: 10, +9
Antigua and Barbuda: 9, +5
Montserrat: 5, +2
Grenada: 4, +1
U.S. Virgin Islands: 0, -17

Group B:
Canada: 12, +19
Suriname: 9, +9
Bermuda: 6, -1
Aruba: 3, -17
Cayman Islands: 0, -10

Group C:
Guatemala: 10, +11
Curacao: 10, +8
Cuba: 4, +1
St. Vincent and the Grenadines: 4, -3
British Virgin Islands: 0, -17

Group D:
Panama: 10, +10
Dominican Republic: 8, +4
Barbados: 6, +4
Dominica: 4, -4
Anguilla: 0, -14

Group E (four teams because St. Lucia withdrew):
Haiti: 9, +8
Belize: 6, +0
Nicaragua: 3, -2
Turks and Caicos Islands: 0, -6

Group F:
St. Kitts and Nevis: 8, +2
Guyana: 9, +2
Trinidad and Tobago: 6, +3
Puerto Rico: 2, -2
Bahamas: 2, -5

 

@IASocFan
@Dr. Gamera
@italiancbr
@edcalvi

Only four people have made predictions so far. Eight people made predictions for the March games, and previous WCQs had way more people than that.

 

Here are the standings predictions for the other three people who predicted the whole round. That is based on if all of their predictions are or were correct, not adding their June predictions to the current standings, so some of these standings can be impossible:

IASocFan

Group A:
El Salvador: 12, +9
Antigua and Barbuda: 9, +1
Grenada: 6, +1
Montserrat: 3, -4
U.S. Virgin Islands: 0, -7

Group B:
Canada: 12, +15
Suriname: 9, +3
Bermuda: 6, -2
Cayman Islands: 3, -7
Aruba: 0, -9

Group C:
Guatemala: 10, +7
Curacao: 8, +4
Cuba: 7, +4
St. Vincent and the Grenadines: 3, -5
British Virgin Islands: 0, -10

Group D:
Panama: 12, +13
Dominican Republic: 9, +0
Barbados: 6, -1
Dominica: 3, -3
Anguilla: 0, -9

Group E (four teams because St. Lucia withdrew):
Haiti: 9, +7
Nicaragua: 6, +3
Belize: 3, -2
Turks and Caicos Islands: 0, -8

Group F:
Trinidad and Tobago: 10, +10
Puerto Rico: 9, +3
Guyana: 5, +1
St. Kitts and Nevis: 4, -5
Bahamas: 0, -9

Dr. Gamera

Group A:
El Salvador: 12, 17
Grenada: 7, +5
Antigua and Barbuda: 7, +1
Montserrat: 3, -9
U.S. Virgin Islands: 0, -14

Group B:
Canada: 12, +16
Suriname: 9, +5
Bermuda: 6, +2
Cayman Islands: 1, -11
Aruba: 1, -12

Group C:
Guatemala: 10, +15
Curacao: 9, +10
Cuba: 5, +3
St. Vincent and the Grenadines: 4, -1
British Virgin Islands: 0, -27

Group D:
Panama: 12, +23
Dominican Republic: 9, +4
Barbados: 4, +0
Dominica: 4, -2
Anguilla: 0, -25

Group E (four teams because St. Lucia withdrew):
Haiti: 9, +12
Nicaragua: 6, +1
Belize: 3, -2
Turks and Caicos Islands: 0, -11

Group F:
St. Kitts and Nevis: 10, +3
Trinidad and Tobago: 8, +3
Guyana: 7, +3
Puerto Rico: 3, -2
Bahamas: 0, -7

Everybody predicted the same order in Group D, and everybody except Paul Calixte predicted Panama to win all four games. Nobody predicted a draw in Group E, and all six people predicted the same except for Paul Caliste who predicted Belize to beat Nicaragua. In Group F, St. Kitts and Nevis was predicted to finish first, second, and fourth. The other teams that were predicted in three positions were Grenada and Montserrat, who were predicted to finish second, third, and fourth in Group A. Everybody agreed about last place except for Paul Calixte, who predicted Aruba to beat Cayman Islands. Everyone else predicted Aruba to finish last.

 

Here are italiancbr's standings predictions. That is based on if all of their predictions are or were correct, not adding their June predictions to the current standings, so some of these standings can be impossible:

Group A:
El Salvador: 12, +11
Montserrat: 9, +3
Antigua and Barbuda: 6, +0
Grenada: 3, -4
U.S. Virgin Islands: 0, -10

Group B:
Canada: 12, +20
Suriname: 7, +3
Bermuda: 7, +2
Cayman Islands: 1, -12
Aruba: 1, -13

Group C:
Guatemala: 12, +18
Cuba: 9, +3
Curacao: 6, +2
St. Vincent and the Grenadines: 3, -6
British Virgin Islands: 0, -17

Group D:
Panama: 10, +16
Dominican Republic: 10, +9
Dominica: 6, -4
Barbados: 3, -4
Anguilla: 0, -17

Group E:
Haiti: 9, +8
Nicaragua: 4, +4
Belize: 4, +0
Turks and Caicos Islands: 0, -12

Group F:
Trinidad and Tobago: 12, +10
Puerto Rico: 7, +1
St. Kitts and Nevis: 7, +0
Guyana: 3, -3
Bahamas: 0, -8

@edcalvi

You have 2 hours and 33 minutes to make predictions. Score predictions for the second half of Round 1 and standings predictions are a combined 28.8 percent of the contest.

 

I said that all June predictions must be made before the first game yesterday. I'll change my mind and count your score predictions, but you can't get any points from standings predictions, which are 22.2 percent. The score predictions give 13.2 to the top person and everyone else gets a percent of that determined by what percent of the top person's points they got. Therefore I can't say that the score predictions for yesterday are worth a certain percentage.

 

I'm not posting results yet, but @Dr. Gamera had an amazing day with exact scores for British Virgin Islands 0-8 Curacao and Anguilla 0-13 Panama (in Panama). In five out of six games he was closest to the correct margin. He predicted Trinidad and Tobago to beat Bahamas 3-1, everyone else predicted Trinidad and Tobago to win by more than 2, and it was a scoreless draw so nobody got points. I predicted the exact score of Aruba 0-7 Canada, and Dr. Gamera was close with 0-6. Dr. Gamera also had two exact scores on Wednesday. His four exact scores in 17 games from Wednesday through today are as many as everybody else combined. Dr. Gamera got 16 points today, I got 12, and the other six people got 11 or 10. The cumulative score predictions are extremely close. Dr. Gamera, jagum, and me have 94, and barnabyjonez has 93. Half of the people are within 1 point of each other.