'Caps opt for #1 Draft Pick, Timbers get Expansion Draft #1

not to pick nits but it would be 19 over 20. but yes i don't see how choosing the SuperDraft is the smart move. the advantage is only applied 4 times vs 10 times. the advantage is also almost negligible. the history of the draft shows that the number one pick is nearly valueless because there are plenty of equally good players that can be taken with picks after #1. the SuperDraft is more about scouting and talent assessment than it is about draft position. unless there is a "Lebron James" in the draft any pick in the top 10 is about as valuable as any other (and definitely in the top 5). not to mention the Expansion Draft is going to be selecting amongst players that are far more known quantities, players with years of actual service playing in MLS as opposed to "prospects". being able to pick Le Toux over Fred or Moreno might be a pretty big advantage.

having said that there might be two things at play here. A. Cody Arnoux. MLS might have waived it's magic totalitarian wand and informed VWFC that he will be forced into the SuperDraft. B. the Caps don't really give a sh*t about picking over the scrubs from the league. they seem to have already signed a number of players that are equal or better than what they might have to select from in the Expansion Draft (in their mind) and over the winter they plan on doing more of the same.

 

Apparently Vancouver believes Omar Salgado is that Lebron James pick.

 

I think taking the top pick in the draft is absolutely the right move.

Generally, you expect to get a few mediocre starters/journeymen from the expansion draft; that's why they're being exposed. LeToux is an exception, but I don't know anyone predicted he would play that well. If that was well known, Seattle would have kept him.

On the other hand, the expectation for the top picks in the draft is for an impact player. I would want as much control as possible.

 

Except for that pesky "can't play in Canada" thing. Cody Arnoux is the safe bet for their draft choice.

 

Yep, and then DCU can take Salgado (assuming Portland doesn't take him instead and assuming DCU remains in last). Trust me, I know what your thinking.

 

I'm not sold on Salgado, but if he should happen to fall to DC, I wouldn't be disappointed with him being selected.

 

Given the rash of signings they've made, it doesn't seem that Vancouver is likely to place a great emphasis on the expansion draft. Perhaps had Portland won the coin flip, they would have preferred ED #1 to SD #1 as they may not have the same building approach. Vancouver seems determined to have a strong core in place for promotion.

your take depends upon there being a clear stratifaction of players available in the expansion draft; that is, there would need to be players that clearly both clubs would demand. honestly, this isn't likely to happen.

While the SuperDraft is still a bit of a crapshoot, you can probably get a relative consensus on a prospect ranking by the time January rolls around. You aren't necessarily going to draft on need, style of play, etc. On the other hand, there probably isn't going to be a consensus in ranking the guys available through the expansion draft since they're all available for different reasons. Plus, when you throw in contract considerations and international status (Vancouver is going to place a higher value on Canadians, for one) the two clubs will probably pursue largely different players.

 

Not every team that gets the #1 SuperDraft pick ends up being the team that uses it. The #1 overall SuperDraft pick is generally worth more in trade than the #2 overall pick.

Expansion teams need players, and stockpiling draft picks isn't a bad way to bring a few in.

The Expansion Draft is much less of a lottery. Most of the players are known quantities. Yeah, there are the odd breakout players like Gutierrez for Chicago or Letoux for Philly, but most are roster filler. And frankly, this will be the sixth expansion draft in seven seasons - Does the name James Riley sound familiar?

 

And of course, Vancouver - being in Canada - complicates matters.

The talent pool of available Canadians doesn't seem to have caught up to having one team in MLS, with Vancouver next season and Montreal the year after that, we're likely looking at three teams that will have very, very thin benches with a bunch of really bad players taking up domestic roster spots for a fair number of years to come.

The U.S. clubs did get an 11 year and 10/12 team head start.

 

No chance. As a Portland fan, I would be delighted if they took him, but they won't unless he absolutely kills it the rest of the USL season. There will be several U-20 pool players in the draft who are better prospects than Arnoux, and if they want Salgado, they'll work out his issues somehow.

If it were simply a choice between Expansion 1 and SuperDraft 1, it would be close for me, but I would probably choose the Expansion Draft just barely.

However, the only other thing of value on the list is the allocation ranking, and I would argue that it is the most valuable of all, and the reason Vancouver made their choice (which was rumored on another board well before the selection). Vancouver will be able to directly negotiate with allocation-required players knowing they will not have to make a deal, or can lift something useful off a desparate team who wants a returning Yank, as Philadelphia did with DC and Perkins. Portland will probablyy get a chance to do this as well, but Vancouver is in position to have more concrete planning as they will stay #1 until they choose not to be. Combined with the #1 superdraft pick, I think it's an easy choice.

 

Pardon my ignrance, but is the "Designated Player Ranking"? My head is scratching about this one...

 

If another team signs a Designated Player, Portland has the first right to take that player for themselves.

No, just joshing. From the release:

"In the event that a player is requested by more than one team in the same day, the Designated Player Ranking will be used to determine which team has priority."

Probably useless, although there have been some discovery battles in the past.

 

The issue is pretty big:

http://blog.oregonlive.com/timbers/2010/08/timbers_player_news_-_timbers.html

 

Okay.. I'll bite.. Why can't Salgado play in Canada? Especially considering he's already been loaned to the Whitecaps for the remainder of the D2 season?

 

Toronto seems to have figured out how to manage this--they only have 6 Canadians on their roster--they get 3 extra US-only international slots, trade for a few more, and get some of their players to gain legal resident status. I'm not not sure if any of their current players have resident status right now, but Danny Dichio and Carl Robinson did, if I remember correctly.

 

He's not. Read my post above for the explanation for why he can't play for Vancouver this year and potentially for next year.

 

If the Whitecaps really want him long term and they can't get an exemption from FIFA then they can always draft him and then loan him out for next year.

 

It's only the first pick that matters. Anything after the middle of the second round is pretty much the same. But that's also how I feel about most of the expansion draft. Not that it's not useful, just that you're getting filler.

 

Didn't Fuad Ibrahim go to Toronto before he turned 18?

Surely when FIFA agreed to let Canadian teams play in a US league they were willing to exempt the rules about players under 18 leaving their country.

The objective of that rule was never intended for situations like we have with the Canadian teams in MLS.

I suspect that it Vancouver wants Salgado (for MLS) they'll be able to make it happen.

 

Thank you for posting that! I had read about 4 articles on the Salgado loan and they all just said "we messed up the paperwork. He's in Portland now." Which is such was a huge WTF.

So is it definite Arnoux's going into the Superdraft now? Someone referenced Twellman as a precedent for it, but Vancouver seemed enthralled with bypassing that.

And what is the "USL allocation order".... Do you get to pick all the players from your USL team you want, and THEN go after other USL players back-and-forth, or is USL like one big pool? By far Seattle's most important USL signing was not a Sounder... he was from Charleston.

 

Do people honestly think Salgado is the #1 player in the draft?

It's hard to say right now, I know.............but nobody's ever seen the guy play.

I mean, there's some real talent out there like Brian Ownby, Dillon Powers, Diego Restrepo, Kofi Sarkodie, etc. Is Salgado a better forward prospect than Ryan Finley of Duke, Casey Townsend of Maryland, etc.? I wanna see Anthony Ampaipitakwong get drafted, just to hear all of the commentators struggle! If Zak MacMath comes out......wouldn't he seem like a good overall #1?

Just because Salgado has "Chivas" on his resume, doesn't mean jack squat. Let's not fall all over ourselves here.

Is Vancouver going to make the mistake of RSL.......who took a youth player with their #1 overall............or are they going to be ChivasUSA & take a player able to help right away.

It's the Nik Besagno versus Brad Guzan argument.

 

i watched the U-20s at the milk cup both times they were on and Salgado wasn't even one of the top 5 best performers on that team. there is no way he is a lock for the number one pick, he simply isn't that good yet.