Pre-match: Can't believe it took this long for this thread, the 2024 Presidential election thread!

Discussion in 'Elections' started by ceezmad, Nov 7, 2020.

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Who will be the 2 Candidates for the 2 big parties in 2024

  1. Joe Biden

    34 vote(s)
    61.8%
  2. Kamala Harris

    14 vote(s)
    25.5%
  3. Bernie Sanders

    1 vote(s)
    1.8%
  4. Ted Cruz

    1 vote(s)
    1.8%
  5. Donald Trump (from prison)

    22 vote(s)
    40.0%
  6. One of the Trump idiots

    4 vote(s)
    7.3%
  7. A Never Trump Republican

    2 vote(s)
    3.6%
  8. The dude from Florida (not florida man)

    6 vote(s)
    10.9%
  9. A Trumpian Republican

    10 vote(s)
    18.2%
  10. Hail Grimes!

    8 vote(s)
    14.5%
Multiple votes are allowed.
  1. The Jitty Slitter

    The Jitty Slitter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Bayern München
    Germany
    Jul 23, 2004
    Fascist Hellscape
    Club:
    FC Sankt Pauli
    Nat'l Team:
    Belgium
    Right. I used to make this point about Occupy back in the day. Grabbing the attention of the country is extremely difficult to do for a day, let alone for weeks. We also saw the same 'get off my lawn' type of push back against Climatestrike / Greta - while ignoring that she mobilised an entire generation in multiple countires, and that shapes an entire attitude to climate that us middle aged types don't have

    Vietors point is you can dismiss this stuff as just some activists doing things in a dumb way, but polling shows Biden is weak with young voters across the board, not just on this foreign policy issue. Calling them all stupid then demanding their votes in November isn't going to work. He needs to at least maintain his '20 turnout amongst this demo.
     
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  2. The Jitty Slitter

    The Jitty Slitter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Bayern München
    Germany
    Jul 23, 2004
    Fascist Hellscape
    Club:
    FC Sankt Pauli
    Nat'l Team:
    Belgium
    He understands better that you need to be seen to be fighting for your voters (obviously he is lying).

    IMO Biden often doesn't get this - as seen with how angry many reproductive rights campaigners were with him. Even if you can't change the law - get caught trying to help!
     
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  3. Sounders78

    Sounders78 Member+

    Apr 20, 2009
    Olympia
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    France

    As I've shown before, the LGBT+ community has been expressing its frustration as well. Keep in mind this is a group that had about a +30 point swing to Biden in the midterms (I think it was nationally rather than just Ohio, I presented the numbers for both earlier in this thread). That 30 point swing creates a 2% shift in the national vote (assuming I did the math right), given LGBT+ represent 7% of voters.
     
  4. Kazuma

    Kazuma Member+

    Chelsea
    Jul 30, 2007
    Detroit
    Club:
    Chelsea FC
    Saying we're not voting for Biden and there's nothing you can do about it tends to do that sort of thing.
     
  5. Sounders78

    Sounders78 Member+

    Apr 20, 2009
    Olympia
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    France

    Wait, in 81 states? o_O


    On a more serious note, I was thinking about polls today. The general consensus is that we shouldn't trust polls this far out - just look at Michael Dukakis. But I can't help but think that maybe we can trust the polls this far out more than usual. Specifically, it's not like people don't really know the candidates, as was the case with Dukakis. We know exactly who the orange idiot is and who Biden is - albeit less so with RFKJr. Do we think there is a large group of truly undecided voters?
     
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  6. spejic

    spejic Cautionary example

    Mar 1, 1999
    San Rafael, CA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Holy frak you won't believe it. Russia has 46 oblasts, 22 republics, 9 krais, and 4 autonomous okrugs. That means Russia has the equivalent of 81 states.
     
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  7. Germanyfan1993

    Bayern München
    Germany
    Jun 17, 2018
    I'm new to this side of the forum - but enticed to hear what people think will happen.. trump is probably the favorite as of right now but who knows this is the quiet part of the election cycle before the conventions + summer nobody really pays attention until after labor day.
     
  8. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
     
  9. dapip

    dapip Member+

    Sep 5, 2003
    South Florida
    Club:
    Millonarios Bogota
    Nat'l Team:
    Colombia
     
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  10. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    And they still won't vote for him

    https://www.economist.com/internati...ech-wars-are-about-to-enter-a-fiery-new-phase
     
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  11. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68893186
    upload_2024-4-28_13-43-29.png
     
  12. charlie15

    charlie15 Member+

    Mar 9, 2000
    Bethesda, Md
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I think that poll may be an outlier having said that, if that it is what the American people wants, by all means..... This is simply mind blowing that 1 or 2 voters can believe that Trump should be re-elected. We are truly doomed......

    Trump Maintains National Lead Over Biden

    A new CNN poll shows Donald Trump leading Joe Biden in the presidential race nationally, 49% to 43%.

    Key takeaway: “Looking back, 55% of all Americans now say they see Trump’s presidency as a success, while 44% see it as a failure. In a January 2021 poll taken just before Trump left office and days after the January 6 attack on the US Capitol, 55% considered his time as president a failure.”

    “Assessing Biden’s time in office so far, 61% say his presidency thus far has been a failure, while 39% say it’s been a success.”
     
  13. Sounders78

    Sounders78 Member+

    Apr 20, 2009
    Olympia
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    France

    :(

     
  14. Deadtigers

    Deadtigers Member+

    Jul 23, 2015
    Independent Republic of the Bronx, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Ghana
    Wasn't that a saying of the Obama team. Get caught trying.
     
  15. Deadtigers

    Deadtigers Member+

    Jul 23, 2015
    Independent Republic of the Bronx, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Ghana
    That is down to press coverage. Trump's failures have been minimized, Biden s success isn't talked about but his struggles are. Not to mention lack of context of US vs the world.
     
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  16. Sounders78

    Sounders78 Member+

    Apr 20, 2009
    Olympia
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    France
    Just looking at the CBS Michigan poll that came out today. Two questions focus on the abortion issue:


    Screenshot 2024-04-28 at 10.24.53 PM.png

    Question 33 is pretty consistent with the national polls. In this case 62% are not happy about Roe being overturned. But Question 34 highlights 62% also don't blame the orange idiot for it. Those 38% who do were probably Democrat voters to begin with.

    In other words, abortion might not be as big a factor in the presidential election as some are saying.

    I made that point earlier when looking at the 2020 and 2022 exit polls for both Nationally and Ohio specifically. Again, I'm not the expert at these things but I don't see abortion moving the needle as much as people seem to assume. The National exit polls I mentioned showed LGBT+ voters shifted Democrat, impacting the general election results by 2%. The same could not be said when looking at the female vote. This Michigan poll helps explain why in my mind.
     
  17. The Jitty Slitter

    The Jitty Slitter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Bayern München
    Germany
    Jul 23, 2004
    Fascist Hellscape
    Club:
    FC Sankt Pauli
    Nat'l Team:
    Belgium
    If anyone is interested, Simon Rosenberg, long time Dem campaign guy did an interview with Bulwarks Tim Miller where he lays out the optimist case.

    Note he is not a poll truther. Based on current numbers, Biden would lose. Klar. But he thinks due to fundamentals, the needle will move over time as the campaign ramps up. Especially because Biden has so much money and deep campaign infrastructure.

    One of his most important arguments is that it is too simplistic to say Dems are winning specials etc due to Roe and their new coalition of highly educated engaged voters who turn out in such elections (the GOP used to have these voters). He argues this is in part of confusion of causation and effect

    In other words, Dems are doing so well in these elections because since 2016 they built a massive organic machine because they have a lot of money and motivation compared to the ill fated Clinton era
     
  18. soccernutter

    soccernutter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Tottenham Hotspur
    Aug 22, 2001
    Near the mountains.
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    One of the things I think happened between 2012 and 2016 was a devoted effort by the Reps at voter suppression. Depending on timing, it worked in places like Wisconsin in 2016 because the law was enacted so close to the election. But it failed in Alabama (enacted in 2014) for the Doug Jones election because they had time to develop their own local/state wide operation (yeah, I know Moore was a bad opponent, but Jones should never had even had a shot in the first place). We can see this effort is effective in Wisconsin post 2016, particularly in 2020.
     
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  19. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Good news for Democrats in the Senate, not so good for Biden

    Well the margins are small and with in the margin of error, so that is good for Biden

     
  20. soccernutter

    soccernutter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Tottenham Hotspur
    Aug 22, 2001
    Near the mountains.
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    First, of those states, Michigan is absolutely not going Trump.
    Second, neither is Wisconsin.
    Beyond that, those numbers don't make sense. How is Trump ahead in Wisconsin, but a gay Democrat is leading? :confused:
    And how it Trump ahead in Nevada, but Rosen is at 8% (being relative, a huge lead)? :confused:
     
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  21. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Si pick your poison, which way are they wrong.
     
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  22. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Some breakdown of the polling by age.

    If this is true, Biden may have a problem.

     
  23. charlie15

    charlie15 Member+

    Mar 9, 2000
    Bethesda, Md
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    And neither Pa. That Emerson poll is garbage.
     
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  24. soccernutter

    soccernutter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Tottenham Hotspur
    Aug 22, 2001
    Near the mountains.
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I'm not sure, but it looks inconsistent. For example, if Baldwin is leading (by that narrow of a margin), then so should Biden.
    In Nevada, if Trump is leading (I'm guessing the Latino vote being the factor), then how does Rosen have such a big lead? Or a lead at all?
    And that Trump/Gallego lead seems not logical.

    The poll just seems inconsistent.
     
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  25. Gilbertsson

    Gilbertsson Member+

    Barcelona
    Spain
    Apr 1, 2012
    Geneva
    Club:
    Toronto Croatia
    Nat'l Team:
    Switzerland
    Not sure what do you see in these two parties: Republicans, Democrats…the parties create the primary candidates, not the people, the voters.
    Sarah Palin? Donald Trump? Joe Biden? If you observe both parties, you would really pick Biden and Trump? Everyone would pick someone who is younger, brighter, more competent…

    We vote for those who are placed in front of the party. So many party members and we got these two as the best ones? Imagine others? :p

    Elections are for those who are the party fans. The candidate can be a person, maybe even cactus…:D

    Citizens don’t have any personal benefit. The usual office transition. New wars abroad, erecting the old tensions in the name of people, oil and trading / traffic route's.:cool:

    Champions League started. Good luck, PSG.:)
     

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