Actually, if you read Laura's blog, she deals with this by pointing out that a Canadian conservative is much more liberal than an American conservative, and that Bill Clinton could have been the head of the Tories in Canada. I would saythat is not really true. Since the old PC party imploded, the new Tories are a lot more ideological. The Candian Liberals are the party which Clinton would most love. They are nonideologicial in that they take whatever positions are popular, rather than trying to explain why their unpopular positions should be popular.
New polls out this weekend don't just show the Liberals losing ground, they show that the Conservatives are within a stones throw of being able to form a MAJORITY government. It would have seemed impossible a couple months ago, but it's a mistake to underestimate how pissed off people get when their elected leaders are caught red-handed stealing their money. http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=841&ncid=841&e=1&u=/nm/20050416/wl_canada_nm/canada_polls_col .
For this reason, I think it less likely to see an election soon. The NDP does not want a Tory majority government. Right now, they have some juice over theLiberals, and can force the government leftwards. It really depends on whether the BQ thinks they can pick up additional seats at the expense of the Liberals (the Tories will at the most win 1 or 2 seats in Quebec). Also, the BQ is not entirely in the clear in the scandal (some of the money ended up going to the PQ, which is the Bloc's provinical cousin). Another concern is that the scandal may cause the PQ to try and get another referendum. At the last provincial election in 2003, the Quebec Liberals (who have no tie to the federal Liberals and in fact are headed by the former head of the Tory party) won a 30 seat majority, with a local conservative party which is also pro-independence winning 4 seats.
According to the National Post, there may be an election in June. The NDP has pretty much decided not to support a no confidence vote but the Tories and BQ have. 154 votes are needed for a no confidence motion to pass (there are 308 seats, but one vacancy). The Tories have 99 seats and the BQ 54. There are 3 independents. 2 are former Liberals who defected over the scandal. 1 is a former Tory who lost his nomination but ran as an independent. Martin looks like toast -- but the Liberals have a tradition of grabing victory (or at least minority government) out of the jaws of defeat.
This could be it. The Tories just announced that they will join with the BQ and force a no confidence vote. It all comes down to the 3 independents. 2 are former Liberals who broke over the scandal (but who probably will support the government) and 1 is a former Tory who lost his nomination due to his constituency party being taken over and won as an independent. However, he is ill, and may not be able to show up for the vote. There is no truth to the rumor that American liberals gathered at the border hoping to sneak into Canada at night are piling into the French consulate in Boston.
I found it hilarious that Martin made a speech a few days ago saying that everyone should just wait until the entire investigation is over - NEXT DECEMBER - before drawing any conclusions. Not even Nixon had that kind of balls. With people breaking down on the stand and admitting that they stole, lied, covered up and then stole some more, what is he suggesting is going to happen between now and then? The Liberals are tossing out every kind of desperate lie they can think of to try and keep power, and it seems to be having a negative effect. They're now whispering that if they get tossed out that Quebec will secede.
Martin has one other thingup his sleeve. He may make the tax cut vote a confidence motion and claim that the Tories cvoted against tax cuts. The silly thing is that the tax cuts would not take effect for something like 4 years anyway. So people will see no immediate benefit (though it might act as an inducement for business to move to Canada, figuring the tax cut takes effect when they get up and running). Even if the cuts were cancelled, it would not free up money for NDP social programs. The whole thing is a charade.
It's really piling up. Martin is beyond shame and will simply do or say anything to cling to power. Canada was once on it's way to being one of the great nations of the Earth. Sadly, they've turned themselves into a chilly version of a banana republic. http://www.canadafreepress.com/2005/albers042905.htm
Should be noted that one of those MP's, David Kilgour of Edmonton-Beaumont, isn't going to run for re-election again. He certainly wouldn't have nothing to lose by voting against the gov't.
So what happened in Canada? It's a beautiful country and most of the people I've met from there are decent hardworking folks. I guess too many Americans moved there in the 1960s. Sachin
Doyle, Maybe you could shed some light. This guy says that there is a confidence motion scheduled for the 18th, but the Liberals have said that it is advisory only, and they will not resign if it passes. What is going on?
I believe the only way a confidence vote is binding is if the governemtn calls for it. I may have this wrong.