The next CA gov. election is November 2022. There wouldn’t be enough time for the recall process. They started on Newsom’s recall last summer I think.
Elder will issue a bunch of executive orders for maximum Trump points. Some dem will get elected in 2022 and they’ll reverse it all. Gonna be a shit show for sure.
If you assume that Democrats will normally get two-thirds of the votes and Republicans will get one-third, one-fourth of Democrats and all Republicans make half. Alternatively, I'll make an example with 8 Democrats and 4 Republicans. If one-fourth of Democrats who normally vote don't vote this time, the voters would be 6 Democrats and 4 Republicans. Then one-sixth of Democrats and all Republicans make half. How many of the losers will run for Senate next year? California has primaries with all candidates together, so the Senate primary could have a lot of candidates like There's a big difference between recalling presidents and governors. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/california-recall-polls/ has Keep at 53.0 percent and Recall at 42.6 percent. The lead for Keep got as low as 1.2 percent. Considering Republican outperformed their polls last year, we should want Keep to have a double-digit lead. Elder is up to 24.2 percent with Paffrath second at 10.1 percent, so there is no doubt that Elder will win the second question. I wonder how long it will take to count mail ballots and if anything will be challenged in court. I'm assuming Democrats control state courts, but if something gets to the Supreme Court, you never know. The comments are by people who want Newsom recalled. Some are by Democrats, including "All my family members are Democrats and we are voting for Larry Elder." There are accusations that if people mail your ballot facing a way that Recall is visible without opening the envelope, their ballots will be dumped to save Newsom. I don't know what the source of that is. I hope that the comments are an example of comments not being a random sample because unhappy people are more likely to comment.
This actually is true, at least for certain counties, as ballot and envelope design may vary from county to county. Even where it is true, it depends on how you fold your ballot and how you orient it when putting it in the envelope. My ballot and envelope did show the vote if you folded it just right and inserted it the right way into the envelope. I turned my ballot around so my vote against the recall wasn't visible.
If he gets recalled, let's all send him a $1 so he can have a consolation dinner at The French Laundry
Mail in aggregate vote numbers so far, county by county breakdown. 6 million ballots returned, close to 30% of the total mailed https://www.sfgate.com/gavin-newsom...wsom-16446043.php?IPID=SFGate-HP-CP-Spotlight Many of the very white ex Hippies in Marin County have already dropped their ballots into the mailbox. Latinos elsewhere so far are sitting this one out. Results will depend on election day turnout. Some of the betting markets had Newsom at -300, down from -1000, but Ladbrokes has him at -800 now.
Polls have gotten a lot better for Newsom and returned ballots are heavily heavily Dem. This guy is usually right This most likely ain't gonna work for the GOP. https://t.co/qm0xISYDd8— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) September 10, 2021
Larry Elder presser with Rose McGowan kicking off now pic.twitter.com/Hae9zUeogH— David Weigel (@daveweigel) September 12, 2021
So, do we have an idea of what time tomorrow we'll know how this went? I'm guessing Midnight-ish, eastern?
I don't know if they will call it by then, but I think you'll be able to make a very reasonable prognostication by 9:00 PM Pacific.
So let's discuss the things we can do to prevent Republicans from trying this power grab all the time forever - maybe they will start trying to win votes through popular policies instead of whatever they're currently doing. Some suggestions I've heard: * Raise the required number of signatures - the threshold for a recall should be much higher than getting a proposition on the ballot. * Allow the governor to be on the ballot. (This one probably won't work because just by name recognition the governor will have a big advantage.) * If the recall is successful, have a runoff between the top two recipients of votes in the second question. This prevents someone from becoming Governor with a small plurality of votes. * We should pass a law or amend the state constitution so that if a replacement Senator is picked, the replacement has to be from the same party that won the Senate seat the last time it was up for a regular election. This would stop Republicans from grabbing a Senate seat unless they can win it in a general election. This may involve taking the power away from the governor to appoint the replacement Senator - something like letting the party's members in the state legislature pick the replacement if the governor is from a different party.
Looks like Elder will definitely win if Newsom is recalled, but I'll be curious who finishes second. For whatever reason, I didn't go for electability and voted for a socialist Bay Area teacher if the recall happens. It just seems like a crapshoot with so many on the ballot.
I didn't bother voting on the second question. Voted no on the recall, voted on a local measure, and that's it.
I've seen enough: the vote to recall CA Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) fails.— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) September 15, 2021 This is not going to going to be close at all. Newsom is blowing the doors off with independent voters.— Vance Ulrich (@VanceUlrich) September 15, 2021 Looks like an uneventful and early evening.
So this absurd recall has been emphatically rejected. Hallelujah. One guy says drink bleach and shove a flashlight up your ass to fend off covid, and that guy's janissaries celebrate his brilliance. Another guy (foolishly) has a dinner out on the town during covid and those same nutcases call for a recall election. This country is screwed.