Two nouns for the same thing. I think of conspiracy as more active and bias as more passive. Is there a conspiracy to play MLS players when at all possible? Or does Gregg have a bias that makes him think MLS players are better than they are? In the end, it can be both. Maybe USSF is conspiring with MLS and hire biased coaches to do it. You theory, whatever we call it, fits most of the facts. There are alternative explanations. But, "nothing to see here move on", is not one of them.
It all seems a bit like if you're in Europe, you'd better be getting regular minutes in a top league or for a top team or you will not be valued as much as an MLS guy who may or may not be a standout at MLS level but who is easy to call in especially for games in this hemisphere. It's kind of all or nothing, Either you are starting at a big team and vault directly to the top of the pile, see Dest with Reyna right behind him. Or, you're more or less seen as not worth the trouble. I think there is a lot of bias in that where there is a feeling that if you're not really "making it" in Europe, it's easier logistically and PR wise to just call a guy from MLS. I'm not sure that it would make a huge difference to level the playing field as on the second tier Euro or the MLS side, most of the guys affected are depth, squad guys not likely to play huge roles. But, a level playing field is always a good policy and taking the easy way is seldom the best way.
I'd be interested in hearing alternative explanations for a consistent 67% representation across two coaches.
My personal take is that there's no conspiracy but USSF is heavily influenced by Garber, who is very effective at his job. His voice carries a lot of weight at the USSF and he was so pissed at Klinsmann for stated the obvious that we thereafter ended up with coaches who are biased towards MLS. I'd add that I believe that Arena specifically intended to show everyone that MLS was better than its reputation - he admitted as much - and we paid dearly for that intention. OTOH, I think Berhalter is simply biased.
I wrote a whole article on it: https://chasingacup.com/gregg-berhalter-2019-moneyball/ It could also just be cheapness. USSF is all about pinching pennies and making money. Calling in MLS players whenever possible saves on travel cost and probably gooses MLS revenue, which gooses SUM revenue, which increases USSF profit. Maybe to test that theory, you would have to look at games that the outcome would lead to more money with success than would be made by saving travel costs and increased MLS revenue. Been awhile for any such events. WCQ'ing is basically the only event where playing inferior talent could lead to a loss of revenue. But, I'm not sure that anyone thought not qualifying was possible before Couva. If WCQ'er rosters under Gregg are 2/3's Europe after all his previous rosters were 2/3's MLS, that would point to a bias and possibly a conspiracy.
Further - it might not make a huge difference now since we're just about at the point where our starting 11 is completely made up of top 3 league players performing regularly and at a high level, but this entire issue manifested itself last cycle... Pretty much every player guaranteed a spot, outside of CP, was an MLS player. The "Big Gunz" so to speak, that turned out to be more similar to water pistols. Big names from the past, that kept being rolled out simply because they succeeded in Europe once before and were deemed "good enough". If we generally are talking about B2 and Championship being similar to MLS, standouts in those leagues such as Robinson, Holmes, and Green (I think he was pretty good this year?) should absolutely be part of the mix. Certainly a B1/B2 player like Morales should be included. Generally, as this thread shows, it comes down to DHC and others finding a pattern which is difficult to explain. Then the counterarguments just pick out single examples to try and disprove the overall trend.
Interesting article - I'll ponder upon it for a while. If the go-forward rosters aren't majority non-MLS, that would be absolute insanity (assuming European based players are allowed or intend to play). Even Berhalter couldn't justify it
I think there's clearly an MLS bias when it comes to roster depth. And if there really is a consistent 1/3-2/3 split between European and MLS players, then that also may be imposed on high. But, I think if you look at the top 18 or so players, the split looks a tad more reasonable (though probably still tilted just a bit too far in the direction of marginal MLS players). I'll use the first and last major rosters of 2019 as an illustration. Here's the first camp. It had 9 non-MLS players and 17 MLS players. But exactly 9 players from each group started one of our friendlies. Non-MLS: Ethan Horvath (Club Brugge, BEL; 3/0) John Brooks (Wolfsburg, GER; 36/3) Omar Gonzalez (Atlas, MEX; 48/3) Matt Miazga (Reading, ENG; 11/1) Tim Ream (Fulham, ENG; 26/1) DeAndre Yedlin (Newcastle United, ENG; 57/0) Tyler Adams (RB Leipzig, GER; 9/1) Weston McKennie (Schalke, GER; 7/1) Christian Pulisic (Borussia Dortmund, GER; 23/9), MLS Sean Johnson (New York City FC; 6/0) Aaron Long (New York Red Bulls; 4/0) Michael Bradley (Toronto FC, CAN; 143/17) Cristian Roldan (Seattle Sounders FC; 7/0) Wil Trapp (Columbus Crew SC; 13/0) Paul Arriola (D.C. United; 19/3) Corey Baird (Real Salt Lake; 2/0) Jordan Morris (Seattle Sounders FC; 25/5) Gyasi Zardes (Columbus Crew SC; 42/6) Here's our last camp of 2019. It again had 9 non-MLS players and 17 MLS players. But 8 non-MLS players received minutes in those matches (Pulisic was injured after his call up), while 10 MLS players did as well (with only one of those MLS players being completely objectionable to me). Non-MLS players: John Brooks (Wolfsburg/GER; 37/3), Tim Ream (Fulham/ENG; 38/1) Sergiño Dest (Ajax/NED; 2/0) DeAndre Yedlin (Newcastle United/ENG; 60/0), Weston McKennie (Schalke/GER; 17/6) Alfredo Morales (Fortuna Düsseldorf/GER; 14/0) Tyler Boyd (Besiktas/TUR; 8/2) Josh Sargent (Werder Bremen/GER; 11/3) MLS players: Brad Guzan (Atlanta United FC; 62/0) Reggie Cannon (FC Dallas; 9/0), Aaron Long (New York Red Bulls; 14/2), Daniel Lovitz (Montreal Impact/CAN; 12/0) Sebastian Lletget (LA Galaxy; 12/2), Jackson Yueill (San Jose Earthquakes; 4/0) Cristian Roldan (Seattle Sounders; 18/0) Paul Arriola (D.C. United; 30/5) Gyasi Zardes (Columbus Crew SC; 54/10) Jordan Morris (Seattle Sounders; 37/7) One explanation for this might just be that once you get past the 18 or so players that we expect to see play the most minutes in these games, Berhalter reserves the last 5 or 6 spots on the roster for MLS players, rather than equivalent (or better) European players. There may be some explanations for that other than bias or orders on high -- European clubs might be less than pleased about their players making the trip across the Atlantic if they're not one of the first 18 -- but I wouldn't rule out those possibilities either. edit: screwed up the math on the last one because I was only looking at initial roster callups, and forgot that the Seattle players got called in later.
Had to edit that last camp's figures because I mixed up some rosters and didn't account for late additions, but hopefully that's accurate now.
I'd be curious if anyone wants to see what those proportions were with Klinsmann and Bradley. Curious, but far too lazy to do it myself. I'd assume the proportions were very different, especially under Klinsmann, but don't want to just assume. If all of these logistical reasons are the cause, we should expect to see similar numbers under other coaches as well. If the last couple years are big outliers? Well, that makes it a tougher thing to argue against since I don't know if any of the issues suggested as reasons are substantially different today than they have been over the years.
something like this makes sense - clear bias but at least a rationality doesn’t it. I think it’s wrong to do it because it incentivizes the wrong behavior (stay at a lower/more comfortable level instead of pushing to play higher) but it would be nice to at least get some acknowledgement that there is structural bias.
I kind of thought this sounded like something you'd have likely checked into. Thanks for refreshing my memory.
I think there is a bias towards MLS players... but I am seeing a serious increase in quality of the league. It is more entertaining to watch than many of the games I see in the English Championship. If the quality of the play continues to increase like this then perhaps the bias won't be that bad of a thing. But if the coach continues to pick underwhelming US MLS players then it won't help. Trapp, Roldon, Lima, Arriola, Lleget... these guys are not top shelf quality.
It was a different world then in many ways. Players had to go to Europe to get paid. Most Americans started pro careers later. It was much easier to get a work permit in England. The level in play in Europe was lower on average, but so was MLS, and NCAA soccer was therefore an ok development path; which is good because it was the only development path. Most USMNT players had played in Europe. The 2010 roster was mostly Europe and the starting 11 was all in Europe (until Davies car crash). It might be instructive, but it might not. There is a known emphasis starting in 2013 for MLS to want, and pay handsomely for, USMNT players. That combined with the failure to qualify in 2017, makes the latter coaching regimes more interesting. MLS has since gone in a different marketing direction, so we will probably not see $30 million to bring back an American starting part-time at Roma for awhile. I think Gregg has called one player from every MLS team. Which might be coincidence but it might be a marketing scheme. We would all like to think all 23 places are merit, but there seems to be various types of shenanigans going on. From, doing clubs favors, to doing agents favors, to calling in coach's friends, to who knows what else. Making sure a certain number or MLS players would not be that far fetched.
That's pretty much what I think. I don't think there's anything too nefarious or conspiratorial going on. It's just much easier to scout guys in MLS, and being MLS guys, Berhalter and Arena were already very familiar with most of those options. Sure, you can get tape for guys in the 2nd Bundesliga or Denmark or wherever, but it's not the same as seeing them up close, and you're not going to go on many scouting trips to those lesser leagues. So, if it's close between an MLS guy and, say, a 2nd Bundesliga guy, they'll usually go with the known quantity. Add in the logistical hassles of bringing guys from Europe and not irritating their clubs, and I can see why MLS guys have an advantage, even if that doesn't make it right or the correct way of building the best team possible.
It's not the BSI podcast specifically, but it is A podcast and I think a really insightful interview with an often overlooked player, who goes into candid detail on; His immaturity early on, the dual national experience, Tab Ramos's youth teams, how badly he wants to wear the shirt and prove himself, etc. Sebastian Saucedo: https://www.soccercooligans.com/podcast Going back to BSI, the Jermaine Jones youtube show he is doing, these random couple of comedians, etc. I find these interviews by folks who are not official journalists, generally more insightful and interesting than the standard fare.
Antonee Robinson was just on some podcast that was possibly just a general interview with various people podcast. But he was pretty candid about his heart condition. Turns out, nothing was done. The irregularity fixed itself after he cut out caffeine. Kid is very smart, can solve a Rubik's cube in 40 seconds, chose the USA because they gave him his first shot at U18 level. It is amazing how that first shot means a lot to these guys when they make their final decision (although, technically, Antonee can still switch to England).
Good stuff, thanks. And yeah that first shot and feeling that we believe in them is definitely the item. Sergino Dest (who is also a terrific interview) spoke a lot about that on an interview he did with Scuffed and an ESPN interview that was really good.
One kind of interesting/surprising thing from yesterday's episode. Mark Anthony Kaye was asked to rank the top players in CONCACAF among Christian Pulisic, Alphonso Davies, and Carlos Vela, all of whom he's played with or against in competitive games. Kaye picked Davies over Pulisic, which isn't too surprising given that he's teammates with Davies, and speaks glowingly about him at length. Though he says he's also been following Christian closely and thinks he's been the bright spot with Chelsea. But a bit surprising to me was that his first choice, without much hesitation, was Vela. "Carlos is first, easy. Like EASY. Guy could still go and play at Barca." It's both kind of a shame and rather fortunate for the US that Vela appears to be done with the Mexican national team at this point. I know he caused us plenty of headaches in the last cycle.
I feel Mexico really missed out not getting the best out of Vela.I never knew the full story of him and the national team, but I was always glad when I saw him off rosters.
It's certainly not a conspiracy. Last cycle, Garber and other MLS honchos were very upfront in expressing their ire at JK's criticisms of the league and his perceived bias against MLS players. Anonymous MLS players in interviews expressed ire a the perception that some guy can 'declare' himself American to take the spot of a deserving MLS player. There was also criticism that players from lower leagues in Europe were taking the spots of MLS players. Also, the hiring process for the US coach was openly MLS-centric. And Boca(co-head of the Athlete's Council), McBride, Berhalter, Earnie are all MLS guys.