Breakout Youth Player in MLS/USL 2024 edition

From the Academy, to @northtexasSC, and now to the first team.

We have signed Alejandro Urzua as our 36th Homegrown in club history.

👉 https://t.co/IVKP8G6Szh pic.twitter.com/EB7waUsAhQ

— FC Dallas (@FCDallas) December 14, 2023

 

Except for keepers and strikers.

 

He was traded to DC United today!

Sources: D.C. United has acquired center back Garrison Tubbs from Atlanta United. Deal around $125k GAM with another $150k GAM add-ons.

Tubbs just signed a homegrown deal with Atlanta last week. Would have been a top pick at the SuperDraft today if eligible. pic.twitter.com/Wed8dA8vqY

— Tom Bogert (@tombogert) December 19, 2023

 

Its weird how many of these kids were at other MLS academies. I don't know if their affiliated club just didn't want them or what? Like Kevin Bonilla. He was at the FCD academy for 10 years. 2010-2020. BUt FCD didn't sign him to a HG contract. He went in the first round to RSL.

Every draft there some lower draft pick that sticks around and makes it. And it's hard to know.................why that guy and nobody else? Like Jackson Ragen from the 2023 draft. Doing well enough that people are whispering his name for January camp.

Dallas traded up to take this '01 forward Logan Farrington at #3. First US-eligible player taken.

I think everybody had the same thought at the same time. Could this be the "next Duncan McGuire?"

FCD has no reliable forwards after Ferreira, and maybe Ferreira gets sold.
So at the very least there's an opportunity for this kid to make the roster. And with draft picks these days, that's as much as you can hope for.

 

These days I think we also look at the top keepers taken.
There are quite a number of recent "hits" there. Celentano, Schulte, etc.

First keeper taken was Bryan Dowd at #6 overall.

Spent time at the Chicago Fire academy. Picked at #6 overall...............by the Chicago Fire.

Is drafting him so high a sign that Chris Brady might be out the door? They must be planning for it.

He's a kicker on the Notre Dame football team, and was watching the draft with Notre Dame special teams players.

What a moment for Bryan Dowd#GoIrish☘️ pic.twitter.com/ak7swNsrN4

— Notre Dame Men's Soccer (@NDMenSoccer) December 19, 2023

 

It seems Dike and McGuire have influenced drafting strategy. Both Farrington and Murrell are in that mold. To some extent so is Spicer.

 

There are three positions we can point to in terms of recent draft successes.
GK, #9, CB.

Kind of the late-developing positions. .

Look at the 2020 draft. Not many first round successes. But Dike, Henry Kessler, Nkosi Tafari, etc............................starting caliber players in the league.

Jon Bell had success in the league.

Some fullbacks break thru the draft like DeJuan Jones.

You're not likely to find a domestic Clint Dempsey in the draft any longer.

You can look at 2023 January camp. How many of the midfielders and forwards were drafted? Like...........one? Eryk Williamson?

 

Yeah I would hoping Bender would be an exception.

 

Williamson signed an HG contract with DC and then was traded to Portland for an international slot (sigh DC FO but I digress).
To your point, the draft seems dead as disco. Last year’s first round is a who’s who of who’s that?

 

w/o knowing anything about the individuals, my money is on the GK's. Keeper seems to be the position where college players can find a path to PT in MLS.

 

Pines and Williams are free agents and Hines-Ike's option was declined. Too soon to say what is up but bringing in Bartlett and now Tubbs seems to show that at most only one of Pines or Williams will be brought back. Currently, they have Birnbaum and four rookie CBs including Akinmboni.

 

I'm a Georgetown guy and Murrell was hyped before the season as the next McGuire, but he really didn't have that kind of year.

I don't watch a ton of college outside of the Hoyas, but if I had to make a wild guess ... would it shock anyone if Hibbert beat out Cohen by 2025? Celentano, Schulte ... college keepers seem to be a good bet.

 

It's maybe the one position where playing tie as a young pro is so hard to get that college is definite option or even improvement.

 

Chris Muller. I know we drafted him and he played in a Dec/Jan camp

 

Now that I think about it Richie Laraya was also drafted as a midfielder. So we,OC, have drafted at least two mids that reached that level.

 

No, he didn't. He was much better than McGuire. At the same age as Murrell, McGuire posted 3 goals and 4 assists. Murrell had 11 goals and 4 assists. So he's well ahead of McGuire's trajectory. He may well not enjoy the same improvement, but he's off to a better start. Age is a huge factor for CF's due to the benefit of strength, savvy, & confidence. These aren't wings.

Incidentally, I'm a Milwaukee guy, and I've never heard of the top American drafted, Farrington. He looks like he's in the mold of a CJ Fodrey from last year or Corey Baird. Multi-skilled, well-rounded guys, but not super productive outside 1 year, and kind of tweeners. From my superficial knowledge of what pans out, I'd bank more on that a guy like Murrell w/ a clear role when he fills out, becomes the next McGuire w/ maturation.

From our standpoint Murrell's probably more one to watch. But again, I'm working off bits of info, and never having seen either in a full game. So we'll find out come March. I'll definitely be rooting for and following Farrington if he shows something early.

 

FCD seems to like either tweezers at CF or more traditional ones who are the slowest players in the league.

 

Duncan scored 23 goals in 24 games in his final season at Creighton. Murrell may be younger, but that doesn't mean he is going to make a leap like McGuire did. Maybe he will, but he clearly wasn't dominant like McGuire.

I have no opinions on Farrington at all.

 

It's irrelevant. 19 yo McGuire turning into 21 yo McGuire is a major surprise. There were hundreds of better prospects than 19 yo McGuire that didn't even reach MLS level.

 

Ironically.....................Chicago traded their 2023 first round pick for the rights to Chris Mueller to Orlando (along with allocation money).

That picked ended up being #6 overall, and Orlando picked Ducan McGuire.

I mean, Duncan McGuire was the first American taken in the 2023 draft.
He wasn't some "out of nowhere" player.

First two Americans taken in 2022? Ben Bender and Roman Celentano.

There's at least recent history of value at the very top of the draft with USMNT-eligible guys.

First American taken in this draft is Logan Farrington. Very much in line with a couple of recent hits in the draft. Second was the CB Nate Jones that people seem to really like. He went to Austin, who do have some aging CBs. Matt Hedges, etc. Third was the Goalkeeper above from Chicago. Is Chris Brady leaving? We've heard rumors about.

Again.................#9, CB, GK.

There is potential value in those types of positions.

I look at all three of those selections and see opportunity. That seems to be the biggest factor of all. Is there an opportunity for the kid in his position? Also, a coaching staff willing to give younger kids a shot. Oscar Pareja in Orlando has proven that in Colorado and Dallas. Now in Orlando. He has quite a track record in that regard. I'd want to be drafted to play in Orlando. When he was in Dallas, Oscar Pareja led MLS in most homegrown minutes and most minutes to drafted players. I'd want to be drafted to play in Dallas too. Dallas has a long history of getting contributors in the draft. Maybe better than any other club. It woud be interesting to see which clubs have the most future MLS appearances from guys they drafted (not necessarily their own team). But Dallas has had great success. New England historically. Great success in the draft. Over and over again. I'd want to get drafted by New England, cuz you know you'll get a chance at least. I bet NYRB/Metrostars would rack up appearances. Not as much recently, but they were very good in the draft for years. Brad Davis, Ricardo Clark, etc. Not guys we necessarily think of with NY first.

I was talking to somebody the other day about the teams with the worst draft record. I had nowhere to start. He suggested Vancouver. Then I looked at their draft history. Ouch. Not enough good contributors for a team that's been around a good period of time now. Folks forget................Tim Parker. Tim Parker must be their best draft pick, and nobody really associates Tim Parker with Vancouver.

 

I'll just add....................the draft always was a crap shoot.

We have this feeling that in the past first overall draft picks were stars. THe first seven 1st overall picks were all duds or kinda duds. I would say new fans don't have a clue who these guys even are. Matt McKeon, Taj Jenkins, Leo Cullen, Jason Moore, Steve Shak, Chris Carrieri, Chris Gbandi. There's some decent enough players there. Gbandi played a lot of games for Dallas. Matt McKeon got some caps. But no stars.

When you look at 1st overall picks, who is the FIRST GUY that ended up playing in a "top 5 league?" Its Freddy Adu and his cup of coffee at Monaco. Then its Maurice Edu in 2007, who appeared in one Premier League game for Stoke. He played 10 minutes against Liverpool at Anfield. [That's like pitching only inning in your baseball career, but it being the 9th inning at Fenway. You'll take it.] Both of those were cups of coffee, so then you get to Cyle Larin (now at Mallorca) in 2015 and Jack Harrison (now at Everton) in 2016. After those two you go back into the dumpster fire. Abu Dunladi in 2017, who is now a bench player in Albania.

You look thru the list of first overall picks and there's a lot of shrapnel in there.
Every No. 1 overall pick in MLS SuperDraft history | MLSSoccer.com