Attendence: Week 24

Discussion in 'MLS: News & Analysis' started by lufty, Aug 26, 2002.

  1. Jimbo

    Jimbo Member

    Dec 17, 1999
    Washington, DC
    18,272 average for the weekend games. That's very good. With all teams still in the hunt for a playoff spot and back to back games between Metrostars-DC, Columbus-Chicago, and SJ-LA, all with either playoff, first place, or the league lead in the balance, it should be a good finish to the season.
     
  2. GreatZar

    GreatZar Member

    Colorado Rapids
    United States
    Mar 29, 1999
    Denver, CO, USA
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    For the week:
    13,210: Col at NE
    19,854: Met at LA
    24,422: NE at Clb
    14,158: SJ at DC
    20,173: Chi at KC
    12,754: Dal at Col
    ----------------------
    104,571 (17,428ave)

    Labor Day weekend comparisons (Fri-Mon):
    2002: 18,272ave
    2001: 23,545ave (w/out DH:15,860ave)
    2000: 23,631ave (w/out DH:16,540ave)
    1999: 15,467ave
    1998: 11,695ave
    1997: 12,501ave
    1996: 15,150ave
     
  3. Rocket

    Rocket Member

    Aug 29, 1999
    Chicago
    Club:
    Everton FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Thanks, Zar.

    Side note: To obtain a 15,000 avg attendance for the season, we only need to average 11,017 for the remaining 15 games.
     
  4. AndyMead

    AndyMead Homo Sapien

    Nov 2, 1999
    Seat 12A
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    This statement is so inconceivably false, I really don't know where to begin. NASCAR is the very model on how to build large crowds. You hold 25-40 events total a year, and you spread them around the country. If every non-road course could hold 150,000, they'd still sell every seat. You really have to go back a long ways to find pathetic crowds.
     
  5. kenntomasch

    kenntomasch Member+

    Sep 2, 1999
    Out West
    Club:
    FC Tampa Bay Rowdies
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I thought we had turned the corner? ;)

    Think MLS should try that? ;)
     
  6. Damon_D.

    Damon_D. New Member

    Mar 28, 2002
    MD
    why didn't MLS have any games today?

    Not everyone would be out of town in MLS towns would they?
     
  7. kenntomasch

    kenntomasch Member+

    Sep 2, 1999
    Out West
    Club:
    FC Tampa Bay Rowdies
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    For the record, this August was the best August in MLS history:

    Year.....G.....Total.....Average
    1996....31.....419,267...13,525
    1997....25.....341,513...13,661
    1998....30.....384,207...12,807
    1999....33.....393,460...11,923
    2000....38.....476,804...12,547
    2001....32.....433,303...13,541
    2002....22.....320,981...14,590
    96-02..211...2,769,535...13,126

    I'm not prepared to pronounce a World Cup Bump (there were fewer games to sell this August than in any other, and the last time there were near this few matches was the previous record, there were a slightly higher percentage of Saturday games this August than last), but it's good news, because August is traditionally not a particularly good month.

    I think having the All-Star Game in August helped a bit, taking a weekend out that might not have been very good. The first weekend in August is usually okay, but nothing great.

    In case you're wondering, the last two Septembers have been pretty darn good (and last year's would have been even better, except for the obvious):

    Year.....G.....Total.....Average
    1996....24.....371,882...15,495
    1997....29.....411,099...14,176
    1998....32.....455,163...14,224
    1999....29.....393,908...13,583
    2000....15.....266,891...17,793
    2001....11.....210,282...19,117
    96-02..140...2,109,225...15,066

    Let's see what happens the last 15 games.
     
  8. counterattack

    counterattack New Member

    Mar 28, 2002
     
  9. Northside Rovers

    Jan 28, 2000
    Austin TX
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    While it's nice to know it would take a colossal failure to reach last year's numbers, we have to take reaching 15K as a given at this point.

    We want the math on what it's going to take to break 16,000.
     
  10. kenntomasch

    kenntomasch Member+

    Sep 2, 1999
    Out West
    Club:
    FC Tampa Bay Rowdies
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Three things:

    1) What ;) means obviously escapes you;

    2) Unlike simpletons like you, I don't make knee-jerk reaction pronouncements. That usually leads to statements like "MLS is on its deathbed" and "Revs fans have finally given up on their team and here is the proof".

    3) ************ you.

    Have a nice day, jackoff.
     
  11. bright

    bright Member

    Dec 28, 2000
    Central District
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Here's the math:

    125 games played so far with an average of 15478.
    15 game left.
    140 games total in the regular season.

    125*15478 + 15*x = 140*16000
    1934750 + 15*x = 2240000
    15*x = 305250

    x = just over 20,000 per match

    - Paul
     
  12. Rocket

    Rocket Member

    Aug 29, 1999
    Chicago
    Club:
    Everton FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    To obtain an average of 16,000 for the season, we'd need to average 20,350 for the remaining 15 games.
     
  13. Northside Rovers

    Jan 28, 2000
    Austin TX
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I took me 3 separate attempts to earn my college algebra credit. I should have called you in sooner.

    I guess we should be happy with high 15K for a season average. It would be nice for the national media thought if we could break the 16K barrier. It sounds much larger than 15,800.
     
  14. MtMike

    MtMike Member+

    Nov 18, 1999
    the 417
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Northside, two words for you, my man: Graphing Calculator. :D made life very easy.
     
  15. John Galt

    John Galt Member

    Aug 30, 2001
    Atlanta
    Fireworks and Bratwursts for Everyone!!
     
  16. GoDC

    GoDC Member

    Nov 23, 1999
    Hamilton, VA
    Sure, have the Galaxy join the MFL and get rid of the rest of the league.






























    Bet you haven't heard that one in a long time!! ;)
     
  17. stinky

    stinky New Member

    May 14, 2000
    Long Beach, NY
    why couldn't mls stick metro vs. ? before the roma/madrid game?

    where's a us/mexico friendly in LA as part of a doubleheader?

    come on rapids, do a post game fireworks show....

    earthquakes....ummm....errr....move!
     
  18. stinky

    stinky New Member

    May 14, 2000
    Long Beach, NY
    btw...

    in order to match last years average attendance...the average for the remaining games would have to be 10,662 using Paul's formula
     
  19. AndyMead

    AndyMead Homo Sapien

    Nov 2, 1999
    Seat 12A
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    What I really want to know, but don't have the time right now to look at the numbers myself, is:
    How are we really doing in relation to last season. Remember, 1) last season ended 1-2 games early for each team, 1b) several of those canceled games were headed north of 20k (including the KC dh with the WNT), 2) the league contracted away Tampa and Miami's crowds.

    The league showed real attendance growth in 2001 over 2000. Both median and mean rose. This year we should see an artificial bump from both contraction and the usually well attended scheduled final games.

    Is the 15,8k-16k that we're looking at show a real bump, or is it explanable entirely by the factors above?

    Anybody run the numbers from last season without Miami and Tampa's home games? What about the medians from that list and this season so far?
     
  20. Sachin

    Sachin New Member

    Jan 14, 2000
    La Norte
    Club:
    DC United
    Well... it looks like this:

    2001 Attendence (12 teams) -- 14,961
    2001 Attendence (10 teams w/o Miami & TB) -- 15,891

    What I did was take the Total 2001 Attendence, subtract out the Miami and TB figures to get a "contracted" attendece.

    Then I took the Total Number of Games Played and subtracted out the Miami and TB figures to get the "contract" # of games played. Then I divided the second number into the first to get the average. It looks something like this:

    Actual:
    2,363,859 / 158 = 14,961

    "Contracted"
    2,363,859 - 156,481 - 146,704 = 2,060,674
    158 - 14 - 14 = 130
    2,060,674 / 130 = 15,891

    I have one of two conclusions:

    1. My math is faulty. I hope so.
    or
    2. Attendence is basically flat over last year SO FAR. Remember that we still have all of September to go through.

    Also, TB & Miami would not have affected the 2001 attendence because they played all their home games prior to Sept. 11.

    Sachin
     
  21. Bora Fan

    Bora Fan Member

    Dec 14, 1998
    Club:
    New York Red Bulls
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    A nice bump from last year fits nicely with the slow and steady growth concept.

    Forcing 16K (if anyone has that supernatural power) would clip our wings next year.

    At this point MLS needs to set up pins/expectations and then go about knocking them down.

    15k then 15.5k then 16k then 16.5k and pretty soon you're pushing 20k.

    Slow and steady - building on the year before. Growth across MLS - and not just because of championship teams, stadia or WCQ doubleheaders.

    Having said that - there will always be some blips in attendance (Fireworks in Colorado, US v. Mexico in LA etc.) and those should be embraced but also spread out like peanut butter.

    To convince more soccer investors to join MLS - you'll need a steady increase in attendance and ratings to prove the point that soccer is here to stay.

    I think MLS is best served by doing that over the next 4 years. Let's not forget that Anshultz and pals are in it for the long haul - but the most recent cash infusion covered MLS through 2006.

    Here's where we can be in 4 years assuming the following increases:

    2% growth year over year = 17.1K in 2006
    3% growth year over year = 17.8K in 2006
    4% growth year over year = 18.5K in 2006

    I would gladly lock in an unglamorous 3% growth rate today if it meant that MLS would be drawing close to 18k in 2006.

    The increase in revenue would be huge for these teams likely turning many MLS teams into modestly profitable enterprises.

    That's exactly the kind of blood you need to attract the sharks who will push MLS out into the frontiers helping expand the footprint - driving ratings up and attracting national sponsors.
     
  22. John Galt

    John Galt Member

    Aug 30, 2001
    Atlanta
    While at it, wouldn't it also be fair to take into account the Chicago Fire situation? They're destined to show a 25%+ decrease even though they might be the only team able to brag of three sellouts. How about a team-by-team analysis to see if there's a bump? (Easy for me to say, I'm asking some other numbers wizard to do the work for me. . .)
     
  23. Sachin

    Sachin New Member

    Jan 14, 2000
    La Norte
    Club:
    DC United
    Easy enough, someone calculated that if the Fire kept their average attendence from last year then MLS would be drawing something like 300 more people per game.

    They aren't the only team to show a decline. DC United also has a huge decline, which offsets the gains made by Colorado among others.

    Sachin
     
  24. stinky

    stinky New Member

    May 14, 2000
    Long Beach, NY
    sachin...

    while i appreciate the time and effort in arriving with the contracted figures for 2001, i think a case study should be done, including exit polls at the final games, to see if people were more or less likely to go to a game last year if their team was playing miami or tampa bay....

    then we can apply our findings from the sample and apply it to the fact we have to arrive at a better representation as to what would've happened if miami and tampa were around today. then we should confirm our findings in a focus group.

    OR

    we can simply divide last years total by 12 and this years by 10....

    :D
     
  25. SoccerMavn

    SoccerMavn Member

    Oct 7, 1999
    On the pitch
    Club:
    Philadelphia Union
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I've been working on a history of the NASL indoor seasons, and have been logging attendances.

    Many teams there were faced with a situation similar to the Fire's; Tampa Bay, for instance, averaged about 5,600 per match during the 1979-80 indoor season. What that figure doesn't tell you is that they sold out pretty much every match...they just happened to be stuck in a tiny arena.

    Maybe a "percentage of capacity" figure would be more useful in evaluating the Fire's attendance.
     

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