It's been more than two months since the bulk of African teams played qualifiers, so how does everyone see the final 2 matchdays shaping up? Can the group leaders hang on or will they get nipped at the wire? Will any of the current group leaders succumb to the pressure of expectations (ie. "choke")? It would seem small consolation to the 2nd place finishers that they qualify for the 2007 ANC, but for some of those teams, that in itself is an accomplishment. Group 1: Togo 17, Zambia 16, Senegal 15 Sept. 3: Senegal at Zambia Mali at Congo Sept. 4: Liberia at Togo If Liberia pull off the upset of this continent's qualifying campaign, I'll eat my hat. That said, Zambia vs. Senegal is the marquee match here. The loser will probably be dead in the water, and a draw could even end each team's dream, unless Liberia can do the unthinkable and get a result in Lome. In October, Mali goes to Senegal, Zambia travels to Liberia, and Congo hosts Togo. Group 2: Ghana 15, South Africa 15, DR of Congo 12, Cape Verde Islands 10 Sept. 3: South Africa at Burkina Faso Sept. 4: Uganda at Ghana Cape Verde Islands at Democratic Republic of Congo This group could end in a real mess after the final matches in October if all the results break "just right". Burkina Faso, sitting on 9 points, could end up at 15 by winning its last 2 matches, as could Ghana and South Africa if they lose their last 2, and they could be joined by CDR if they lose to Cape Verde and win at South Africa next month! If that scenario played out, your winner would be--Cape Verde with 16 points!!! This is a very balanced group overall, and while conventional wisdom points to Bafana Bafana and the Black Stars going down to the wire, you cannot discount the spoilers. Uganda have the slimmest of chances to qualify for the African Nations Cup, and while the Cranes sit bottom of the pile, they cannot be looked at as "an easy win". Group 3: Ivory Coast 19, Cameroon 17 Sept. 2: Sudan at Libya Sept. 4: Benin at Egypt Cameroon at Ivory Coast Depending on the outcome of the crucial CIV-CMR match in Abidjan, the October matches will just be a formality. Ivory Coast can win its first trip to the World Cup with a win, as Cameroon's run will be over. A Cameroon win clearly puts the Lions in the driver's seat while the Elephants will once again be left to wonder what could have been. October sees Cameroon host Egypt, and things could look good for a Lions victory, depending on what kind of team the Pharoahs bring. Ivory Coast makes a cross-continent trip to Sudan, and while you wouldn't think a loss to Sudan is in the cards, you can't help but think about strange happenings on the final day of qualification. A September 4th draw for both sides would also provide for October pressure and drama. If they end up tied in the standings, Cameroon would get the bid based on an earlier win against the Elephants in Yaounde. Group 4: Angola 15, Nigeria 15, Zimbabwe 12, Gabon 9 Sept. 4: Nigeria at Algeria Gabon at Angola Rwanda at Zimbabwe Based on past performance and soccer folks "in the know", Nigeria should have put this group away by now. Will the Eagles draw on their past experience and take charge at the end of the 4th, or will their string of surprising results continue? Will Angola, unaccustomed to such pressure, wilt or thrive? And, where the heck did Zimbabwe come from! This group could end up in a three-way tie after October's matches, and a potential four-way train wreck is looming if Gabon can win out, Zimbabwe splits its last two matches, and Angola and Nigeria both lose out. For that to happen though, Zimbabwe has to lose to Rwanda and win at Nigeria, and that seems unlikely, but I guess stranger things have happened. Algeria and Rwanda and to a lesser extent, Gabon are all in the spoiler roles. Many BS posters seem to think Angola will falter or that Nigeria will finally crank things up and return to its past dominance, thereby winning this group. The question then becomes--"What took you so long?", should that happen. Group 5: Tunisia 17, Morocco 16 Sept. 3: Botswana at Morocco Tunisia at Kenya Sept. 4: Malawi at Guinea This is the easiest African group to figure out. In the unlikely event that Morocco lose at home to Botswana, Tunisia can clinch a berth to Germany by winning in Kenya. The more probable scenario will see both sides within a point or two of each other as they brace for the "winner take all" match in Tunisia next month. If both sides are tied in the standings after the October match, Morocco wins based on its earlier victory at home against Tunisia. The Atlas Lions are the only African side with no losses in World Cup qualifying so far. It's too bad CAF couldn't convince the participating nations to have a simultaneous kick-off for the final October qualifying matches. That would just add to the drama of the process, but with 15 different nations hosting games, I can appreciate the difficulty in trying to do that.
Great post. My favorites: group 1- I say Zambia eliminates Senegal and on the last day Congo beats Togo sending the Bullets through. Just when the world is getting used to Togo, and even darker horse comes along in Zambia to take the group. group 2- To my regret I think Ghana has this one but various wacky scenarios could indeed happen. First I think the home teams will win in September, which eliminates SA I believe as they lose the head-t-head vs Ghana. But then I can imagine Cape Verde upsetting Ghana on the last day and with everything to play for CDR wins @ SA tying them with Ghana. between CDR and Ghana head-t-head is tied so you go to goal differential I think and Ghana right now is +7 while CDR is +3- not an insurmountable hill, especially since I have Ghana losing to CV. and CDR winning out. If SA does beat BF in September then it gets really interesting if Ghana again lose to Cape Verde. That makes that october match of CDR @ SA huge- and that match is played the day before Ghana- CV. I still favor Ghana but it's not gonna be easy. Group 3- I think Cameroon MUST win @ Ivory Coast and I don't think they will. If they win or tie in that game, Ivory Coast will win in October. Group 4- I see Angola, Nigeria, and Zimbabwe all winning in September. That leaves Angola needing to win a road match for the first time @ lowly Rwanda. Can they do it? They will be motivated, that's for sure. Like Ghana, Angola will play a day later than their rivals in October. I think it's too much to hope for Zimbabwe to win @ Nigeria on the last day. Group 5- Yeah it will come down to the last day in Tunis. Someone should come up with a good slogan for that game on the lines of past greats like The Thrilla in Manilla or such. I say Tunis wins that game but it's by no means a done deal, especially because I can imagine Kenya taking points from Tunisia in September.
Here's my best guess. Group 1: Togo will win over Liberia. Zambia will beat Senegal, although Senegal have the pedigree and experience to pull out a win here and ultimately make it to Germany. Incentive should be no problem for the top 3 squads here. Group 2: Ghana will effectively win the group with a win over Uganda, and I think they will. South Africa and Congo Democratic Republic will also win, but it will be for naught for RSA, and CDR would need an incredible result in October to advance. Group 3: I predict a draw between Cameroon and Ivory Coast, setting the stage for a couple of last-day, high-stakes matches in October. Group 4: Angola and Nigeria both draw, while Zimbabwe wins. In October, Zimbabwe throws caution to the wind, goes all out at Nigeria, but gets nothing more than a draw. For the moment, Nigeria lead the group by a point, then all eyes turn toward Kigali...... Group 5: Impossible to find an English word to rhyme with Tunis. How about "Duel in the Desert", "North Coast Knuckle-biter", "Mediterranean Mayhem", or the ever-popular "Sahara Showdown"? I think Morocco will take the lead in the group after September. They will win against Botswana while Tunisia draws at Kenya. Ironic to think that Morocco's perfect record could be spoiled on the last day, and that would be enough to see them eliminated. Correcting something in the original post--Tunisia DID NOT lose at Morocco. The teams tied 1-1. Tunisia's only loss in the group was at Guinea in June, 2004--DOH!!
Laugh my ********ing ass off! North Coast Knuckle Biter! I love it!!!! Mediterranean mayhem is good too but I love the NCKB baby!
This is my best hopes- i`m looking forward to see Nigeria win even if away in Algiers, Egypt to me will win versus Benin and i think Sudan and Libya will end in a high scoring draw. I`m looking forward to see South Africa win away at Burkina Faso to give them some chance against Ghana who take on Uganda. i know many observers are already counting the black stars through, but let us remember the last qualifiers two year back when Uganda nearly beat Ghana, taking a 1-0 lead till the 88th minute when Ghana equalized in Kumasi. this time round both teams have different sides , still any thing can happen in football. i`m hoping that South Africa can take this slot. Tunisia is expected to make light work of the Harambee stars even if playing in Nairobi, may be 3-1 win. Morocco is also highly favoured against Botswana, 2-0 is my prediction. Senegal away to Zambia, tough task but they can do it with the quality of players at hand. i will go for a 1-0 senegal. i think Angola will beat Gabon even if i`m looking for an upset, Gabon to win so that Nigeria can pull away. Congo Dr Vs Cape Verde. i will go for a 2-2 draw. Guinea - Malawi, home side will take this one , i will go with a 1-0 for Guinea. i`m looking forward to the big clash, Cameroon and Ivory Coast, my wish is for Cameroon to win this one and go through, just can`t stand them not being in German 06. i doubt we will have a draw, to me Cameroon will win 2-1 away. Mali- Congo, i will go with Mali 2-0, Togo Versus Liberia should also be a good game, tough to predict on this one. but oh well i will go with a goaless draw. Zimbabwe -Rwanda, i think on paper Zimbabwe looks likely to win but Rwanda has a history of causing upsets, still i pick Zimbabwe 3-1 confortable win. i stillo want to see Africa`s pairing of Cameroon, Tunisia, Nigeria, Senegal and South Africa make it back.. lets wait and see.