First round games - odds based on Albyn Jones ratings Odds calculated from the Nov. 9 Jones ratings. (lower rated team listed first - the numbers are tournament seeds, not rankings) The Albyn Jones ratings are on the soccerratings.com website. Main ratings page. Rating system description Code: [font=courier] Arizona St. vs. Cal Poly even Nebraska vs. Washington even Dayton vs. Ohio St. even Princeton vs. Villanova even Oklahoma St. vs. Auburn 1.3 to 1 USC vs. Pepperdine 1.4 to 1 Rutgers vs. Maryland 2 to 1 BYU vs. #10 Colorado 2 to 1 Stanford at #9 Santa Clara 2.5 to 1 Georgia vs. Clemson 2.6 to 1 Oakland vs. Michigan 2.6 to 1 Mississippi vs. Texas 3 to 1 DePaul vs. Purdue 4 to 1 SMU at TAMU 4 to 1 Boston U. vs. Connecticut 5 to 1 Oklahoma at #14 Tennessee 5 to 1 Dartmouth at #11 Florida St. 5 to 1 Denver at #8 Portland 8 to 1 Illinois St. vs. #13 Kansas 9 to 1 Central Florida at #3 Florida 9 to 1 San Diego vs. #4 UCLA 10 to 1 William & Mary at #7 Virginia 10 to 1 Cent. Conn. at #15 Boston Col 10 to 1 UNC Greensboro vs Wake Forest 12 to 1 Eastern Illinois at Missouri 17 to 1 Navy at #5 Penn State 22 to 1 Western Michigan at #16 Illinois 24 to 1 Idaho St. at Utah 24 to 1 Loyola(MD) at #6 W. Virginia 66 to 1 Stephen F. Austin vs. #12 Duke 74 to 1 Loyola (IL) at #2 Notre Dame 140 to 1 High Point at #1 North Carolina 7100 to 1 [/font]
Code: [font=courier] Upsets odds Western Mich. 2 at #16 Illinois 0 24 to 1 UNC Greensboro 2 Wake Forest 0 12 to 1 Cent. Conn. 1 at #15 Boston Col 0 10 to 1 Ties (PKs) Idaho St. at Utah 24 to 1 William & Mary at #7 Virginia 10 to 1[/font] Odds are for the higher rated team winning. There's a difference of over 400 rating points between Illinois and Western Michigan, plus Illinois had home field advantage.
Second round games. Differences in Jones ratings, not including home field advantage which is about 55 points. Higher rated team listed first. (except Kansas at Missouri) Code: [font=courier] 828 UNC Greensboro at North Carolina 318 Western Michigan vs. Purdue 138 Arizona St. at Santa Clara 189 Nebraska at Portland 317 Rutgers at Penn St. 10 Duke at TAMU -137 Kansas at Missouri 213 Pepperdine at UCLA 213 Mississippi at Florida 184 Georgia at Tennessee 96 Auburn at Florida St. 180 Ohio St. at W. Virginia 122 Villanova at Virginia 290 Idaho St. vs. BYU 294 Central CT St. vs Connecticut 176 Michigan at Notre Dame[/font] Duke at TAMU is interesting. Duke is the seeded team. TAMU has home field advantage. The Jones ratings are practically identical. Only three games have a rating difference greater than 300. Games start to get competitive when the rating difference gets to about 300 or less but, the thing is, there are only 3 teams within 300 points of UNC. Odds against UNC Greensboro are "only" about 400 to 1, which is a whole lot less than the odds against High Point were.
Differences in Jones ratings, not including home field advantage which is about 55 points. Lower rated team listed first. Code: [font=courier] 548 Purdue vs. North Carolina 58 Santa Clara vs. Portland 124 Texas A&M vs. Penn State 152 Kansas vs. UCLA 34 Tennesse vs. Florida 36 Florida St. vs. West Virginia 38 BYU vs. Villanova 36 Connecticut vs. Michigan[/font] Seven out of eight games are close, with 5 of 8 games "even" (the difference is less than the standard error, so it's not even statistically significant). Odds in favor of UNC are now down to about 60 to 1. (next round they may drop to as low as 8 to 1)