Last year I started this thread which turned out to be a little bit of fun speculating on if Adu would reach the double digit plateau in goals. Most people didn't think he would but the general thought was that he would have a solid season. That turned out to be a fairly accurate prediction. In 2003 eleven players reached that total. In 2004 ten players did. 2004 list 12 Brian Ching 12 Eddie Johnson 11 Pat Noonan 11 Damani Ralph 11 Edson Buddle 11 Carlos Ruiz 10 Amado Guevara 10 Josh Wolff 10 John Wolyniec 10 Alecko Eskandarian 2003 list 15 Carlos Ruiz 15 Taylor Twellman 14 Ante Razov 14 John Spencer 12 Preki 12 Landon Donovan 12 Brian McBride 11 Mark Chung 11 Damani Ralph 10 Pat Noonan 10 Edson Buddle Adu's stats G 5 A 3 PTS 13 Min 1440 G/90 0.3125
That's my initial inclination that with him playing A-mid that it would be tough for him to get ten goals. 16 guys had point totals over 20, only two or three of them were strict midfeilders depending on how you're counting. By my look the two top-scoring mid feilders last year in MLS, exculding Guerva (G10::A10) were Steve Ralston (G7::A8) and Eddie Gaven (G7::A8) were the top scoring midfeilders in terms of points. I could easily see Adu with a couple more goals and a handfull more assists. Reaching the 20pt mark? Maybe not, but you never know. Historically in MLS expansion has brought about league-wide higher scoring.
No, for the same reason others have said...he's going to play A-mid. Expect 5 goals or more and 10 assists or more, though.
That's pretty ambitious, only three guys last year had more than 10 assists. Donavan, Guerva and Moreno. FWIW. By my quick count Freddy was tied for 23rd in the league with a few other players with his 5 goals scored. I'll be putting together a full breakdown of offensive numbers in the next couple of weeks and putting them in the Stats forum.
Freddy will probably take the PKs (he's so automatic)..so that might add a couple to his totals. I had Freddy pegged for 5-7 goals in first year, and you could calculate 5 (actual total) or 7 (if you add OWN GOAL vs. Dallas which was all Freddy, and a goal vs. Rochester in exhibition that was played as if a real game). With younger players, I think its as valid as not to look at 'near games' since they are on pitch for fewer minutes.. This year, I expect he'll be in the 8-10 range- MLS games only, depending on if he takes PKs. I do expect his assists to increase a lot (10+)...
Not that ambitious Adu will be getting 90 minutes in the A-mid position and Esky and Moreno are going to get some pace on offense, if Adu learns some patience he's going to draw the defense in and find these guys open a bunch. Expect Moreno's assists to go down (really, Moreno had 10 assists? Every game I've been to I keep getting frustrated with him cuz he doesn't pass enough).
Re: Not that ambitious If Freddy is a starter from day 1, I would expect something close to 25 points. But with Christian Gomez playing that a-mid spot so well, it will be tough for Freddy to get a secure spot in the lineup.
MLS seems to have a lot of young guys who putter along in year one and break out in year two. Ex. Alecko Eskandarian Y1 2003 3G 2A Alecko Eskandarian Y2 2004 10G 2A Brian Ching Y1 2003 6G 2A Brian Ching Y2 2004 12G 4A Ok, ok, these are just two examples...but my point is that he's going to be a whole new guy next season. He's got the first year jitters out of the way. He'll come out strong this coming season, earn a starting spot and excel. Everyone has a tough time in their rookie year. He's only going to get better. I'll go with over 10.
Since he takes a lot of corners and I'm doubting he'll play forward much with Jaime and Esky, I would say less than 10. I don't think anybody even scored 12 this year and the guys that did played forward and played there a lot. If Freddy can get more assists and get 5 goals again that will be good.
Re: Not that ambitious And I reiterate my feelings from last season: https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=3222438&postcount=48 If Adu can average 0.33 goals per 90 minutes played, his season will be a rousing success. Adu likely won't get the protection from the refs that he got last season. He's still only going to be 15/16 during the season. At some point - if he's played too much at his age and physical development, he's going to get hurt. Assuming the US qualifies for the WYC, he'll be gone for most, if not all of, June: http://www.fifa.com/documents/tournaments/WYC2005/Match_Schedule_WYC2005.pdf Frankly, 10 goals - while not out of reach - is probably a bit ambitious. What helps his cause is that he's the type of player that's capable of putting 2 or 3 in the net in a single game.
Exactly. I don't see Adu overtaking Gomez this year. Maybe in 2006. But then of course he will have to miss considerable time due to the World Cup, right?
Re: Not that ambitious Just as a point of reference Freddy was fouled 50 times last season. With playing roughly 53% of the minutes of the season I'd say that's probably a lot. Arnaud, Mulrooney and Martino led the league in Fouls Suffered last year with 111, 89 and 84 respectively. They're all mainstays with their team. Mulrooney in fact played all 2700 minutes last season. Just a cursory look but here ya go. FS/90 Adu 3.125 Arnaud 3.804 Mulrooney 2.966 Martino 3.286
Past few years' assists leaders: 2004 Jamie Moreno 14 2003 Preki 17 2002 Ralston 19 2001 Serna/Perez 15 2000 Valderama 26 Number of players with 10+ assists 2004 (7) 2003 (3) 2002 (9) 2001 (13) 2000 (14)
Number of players with 10+ goals 2004 (10) 2003 (11) 2002 (11) 2001 (8) 2000 (14) What all this is to say is that in MLS in the last five years guys reaching the double digit plateau in goals or assists is a relatively exclusive group. Usually in and around only ten or so guys. Of course in a ten team league that's not saying all that much but I still think it's a very tough mark for any guy to reach, especially Adu.
The extra two games will definitely come into play. As will the fact that there are two expansion teams. Players like EJ who will likely miss a fair amount of time with the USMNT may struggle to get to 10, while players like Jaime Moreno and Davy Arnaud who will likely spend the summer with their clubs will be better placed to take advantage of the longer, watered down, schedule.
I know people have broken down the leagu's scoring, goals per game and such with expansion, but I can't find those numbers right now. You're right in that expansion should see an increase in scoring probably due to the thinning of defensive talent. I'd forgotten about the two extra games however, which is a good point.
I don't think that 1998 statistics are relevant. Back in 1998, there were basically 12 expansion teams. The league was reinventing itself every year or two - with the exception of a couple of teams each season that seemed to know what they were doing. This time around there are only 2 expansion teams.
I wish I had those numbers handy right now. I don't feel like taking the tiem to re-create them myself at the moment. To my memory the jump in goals scored per game was signifigant in '98. The level of relevance of that to now is best left for another thread, but I'll garuntee you scoring will go up next year. Intuitively it makes sense, at least to me.