OK. So I have a "game" for us until the Columbus game this weekend. In the "realistic changes" thread I just defended Corrales as one of the team's better players, but I suggested that his salary might not line up with his usefulness to the team (and now I think I might even be wrong about that!). It got me thinking; if you make a ranked list of our most crucial players, how does that list compare to the ranked list of players by salary. Ideally, it should be the same, right? ...The most important players get the most compensation. Of course, things never work out quite that way in practice, so, what do you see as the biggest discrepancies? Here is the list of players ranked by salary. I included Kamara, but I didn't put any of the other Dev players in the list, so this is our "top 19" list. What do you think? This is an ordered list of our team based on salary. How would you change the order if you were to rank the players in terms of value to the team? Players ranked top to bottom by salary: +$200K Group 1. Ronnie O'Brien #7 (M) [$259K] 2. Jovan Kirovski #77 (M, F) [$220K] 3. Joe Cannon #1 (G) [$213K] 4. Ramiro Corrales #12 (D, M) [$203K]+$100K Group 5. Ivan Guerrero #23 (D, M) [$147K] 6. Nick Garcia #3 (D) [$143K] 7. Ryan Cochrane #5 (D) [$133K]$50-100K Group 8. Ned Grabavoy #11 (M) [$90K] 9. Gavin Glinton #9 (F) [$60K] 10. Kei Kamara #16 (F) [$58K] 11. Eric Denton #2 (D) [$52K] 12. John Cunliffe #20 (F) [$51K]*Sub $50K Group 13. Jason Hernandez #21 (D) [$48K] 14. Kelly Gray #22 (D, M) [$38K] 15. James Riley #4 (D, M) [$33K] 16. Ryan Johnson #19 (M) [$33K]* 17. Joe Vide #6 (M) [$33K]* 18. Shea Salinas #15 (M, F) [$33K]* 19. Dan Benton #31 (G) [$33] <---$33K is a guess. + DEV Players
...don't worry, I'll play first (and feel free to use what you see as my mistakes to guide your answers, and I've tried to make a few picks that will be a bit ...unpopular?... or at least, that will go against some of the conventional wisdom I see on this board). Looking at this team-internally, this ranking doesn't actually seem THAT bad to me. Here is my "importance to the team" ranking. Most Important - Group I 1. Cannon -- even more important now that we have little GK depth. 2. ROB -- despite not producing goals, he's done wonders for our possession. 3. Guerrero -- ditto ROB. 4. Garcia -- our defense IS that much better with him on the field. 5. Corrales -- so far, we don't have anyone who can do better at D-Mid, and when he plays more defensively (and behind Grabavoy) we've looked pretty good at times.Group II 6. Johnson -- he has provided an offensive threat, energy, and passion to our front line. 7. Grabavoy -- he has been inconsistent, he has not provided as much as I would like to see in the way of defensive help, and he needs to improve, but he has had a few excellent moments, and he may just be our best option at as a more attacking midfielder. 8. Hernandez -- and every-game starter, his flexibility has allowed us to maintain a more consistent group on defense. 9. Cochrane -- criticized on the board for his mental lapses, he needs to give the team a focussed 90 minutes (plus injury time!); however, when he plays with focus, he is a very valuable piece to the puzzle, and not all his lapses will be punished as much as they have been so far.Group III 10. Gray -- assuming he's not noticeably worse than our current "subs", his versatility allows us to turn players like Vide, Riley, or Denton into tradeable assets (as opposed to necessary players for the team). In other words, having him on the team might allow us to use another player in order to get a trade done - thereby improving the team. (I also have high hopes for him.) 11. Cunliffe -- has produced in limited minutes for both us and for Chivasusa last year. He should be given a chance to start, and if he doesn't produce as a starter, we should continue to use him as a sub where his production has been relatively consistent. I have high hopes he'll form a solid partnership with Johnson. 12. Denton -- where Riley and Cochrane have often been punished by the other team for their errors, Denton's mistakes have not been exploited as often (or, as in the case of the RSL give-away pass) or have required extra mistakes from other teammates before the Quakes have been punished. He may just have been luckier than other in this respect. 13. Salinas -- has shown his usefulness as a late-game sub. He provides a spark going forward, and he has helped create a few chances. On the other hand, the defense has often fallen apart while he is on the field (and I think there is a slight connection), and his finishing hasn't been good enough. he still needs to improve. 14. Riley -- has been maligned for the own-goal and for making a few errors in the games he started. On the other hand, he is extremely versatile, he is very fast, and he has better chemistry than Hernandez when it comes to teaming up with ROB. On a better team, he would look MUCH better. As such, he may be good trade bait for us, and this raises his value to the team.Group IV 15. Kamara -- has started every game he's been here for. He has speed, but doesn't use it to full advantage. He seems to have strength, but doesn't hold the ball up well enough. He's scored a few goals, but he's missed many more. He's been described as a player with all the tools, but he hasn't seemed to figure it out yet. ....is he the soccer equivalent of Billy Beane? Or will he figure it out and go on a scoring tear that will take him to Europe? 16. Vide -- he hasn't been up to the task of protecting the center of the field for us. I still think he has potential, but he'll need to get playing time to reach it, and he have to leave the Quakes in order to get on the field - especially now that Gray is here. That said, I think there may still be a few MLS teams that value him (I think he'd be good right now in a 3-5-2, for example), so he also has value as trade bait. 17. Kirovski -- with such a high salary, the only thing he has to offer us is what he gives us on the field. I think he'll be given a few more starts, and given how he has performed for previous teams, I don't think we should expect much. However, Yallop has been excellent at reclamation projects, and Kirovski has the potential to do incredibly well for us (and I hope he will). Until he shows it, though, I have him ranked low: we can't trade him because of his $alary, so he just has to produce for us. (And maybe when Guerrero and ROB are back, he will!) 18. Glinton -- I feel strongly that he is with us simply because of his performance for LAG last summer. I'm not sure he can reproduce that for us (but I'd take it if he did!), but is quick, and he passes the ball occasionally. He could be a decent option for a team like Houston that has an excellent midfield, but forwards that lack speed and just haven't clicked yet. Wondolowski has been buried in Houston - maybe Glinton could be part of a trade for Wondo? 19. Benton -- he is on the team as emergency cover for THE JOE. Hopefully we never need him.
I was thinking about something similar recently. Taking a longer view, which players would be "keepers" that you'd want to build your team around over the next 4 or 5 years. Here's my list. This is my "most important" list I suppose, but with more of an eye to the future. In no particular order: Ryan Johnson - physical player with strong upside Ivan Guerrero - solid player, getting up there in terms of the next 4-5 years, but should still be effective in that timeframe Joe Cannon - also getting up there a bit but should still be solid for the next 4- 5 years Shea Salinas - will settle into being a good player with some seasoning Nick Garcia - probably has another good 4-5 years in him ------ On the bubble: Ryan Cochrane - still fairly young and hasn't peaked yet (hopefully) Ramiro Corrales - would probably be effective for another 4-5 years especially if he can settle in at left back Kei Kamara - shows well in flashes, still young with upside John Cunliffe - would like to see more of this guy, but could be a keeper, also young Jason Hernandez - badly toasted by Findlay last weekend against RSL but also young with presumed upside
Nice lists and nice way of thinking about the value of players -- looking toward the next 3-4 seasons (where I was thinking more along the next 3-4 weeks...). I think I agree with almost everything - just one thing: I'm interested that you have Cochrane on the bubble but not Hernandez. They are almost exactly the same age -- so the chance of reaching "potential" or improving should be the same for each one, and you could argue that it would be higher for Hernandez since Cochrane has had more playing time in the league (7000min for C; 4000min for H). If they've both peaked.... well.... but I'll pay more attention to their games coming up -- right now, I have a hard time deciding which has more potential / which is better. (Cochrane has made more costly mistakes, but mistakes are more likely to be punished in the center of defense, so....)
Funny you should write that because I was just about to edit my post to add Hernandez to my "on the bubble" list. He is about the same age as Cochrane, more mobile I think, and also presumably has not peaked. He might have even been on my "keeper" list if not for the toasting he received at the hands of Findlay last weekend.
Players ranked top to bottom by value: High 5. Ivan Guerrero #23 (D, M) [$147K] 6. Nick Garcia #3 (D) [$143K] Ryan Johnson #19 (M) [$33K]* Medium Ronnie O'Brien #7 (M) [$259K] Ryan Cochrane #5 (D) [$133K] Joe Cannon #1 (G) [$213K] Ramiro Corrales #12 (D, M) [$203K] Ned Grabavoy #11 (M) [$90K] Kei Kamara #16 (F) [$58K] Jason Hernandez #21 (D) [$48K] Shea Salinas #15 (M, F) [$33K]* Low Jovan Kirovski #77 (M, F) [$220K] Gavin Glinton #9 (F) [$60K] Eric Denton #2 (D) [$52K] John Cunliffe #20 (F) [$51K]* Kelly Gray #22 (D, M) [$38K] James Riley #4 (D, M) [$33K] Joe Vide #6 (M) [$33K]* Dan Benton #31 (G) [$33] <---$33K is a guess. I think many of our higher priced players are of medium value to the team because they aren't producing versus their cost. However, Kei, Jason, and Shea have good value because they have contributed and a low cost. From my perspective, it is said that we have so little at high value, but that is to be expected for an expansion team.
I forgot to mention that ROB would have been on my 4-5 year keeper list except that I'm not sure that his knee is going to hold up for that long.
Good thread! It's tough to get players when you're an expansion side, so naturally, we have a tendency to sign players whose previous teams thought either that they were under-performing or were overpaid. Players ranked top to bottom by salary: +$200K Group 1. Ronnie O'Brien #7 (M) [$259K] Perhaps slightly overpaid. Perhaps not. 2. Jovan Kirovski #77 (M, F) [$220K] Too much, needs to show that he's worth the coin. 3. Joe Cannon #1 (G) [$213K] Worth every penny! 4. Ramiro Corrales #12 (D, M) [$203K] Could be better, but he brings a lot to the club. +$100K Group 5. Ivan Guerrero #23 (D, M) [$147K] I'm happy! 6. Nick Garcia #3 (D) [$143K] Worth it and then some. 7. Ryan Cochrane #5 (D) [$133K] Not as bad as some here think. Not a bad price for Ryan. $50-100K Group 8. Ned Grabavoy #11 (M) [$90K] A steal. 9. Gavin Glinton #9 (F) [$60K] Cut him. 10. Kei Kamara #16 (F) [$58K] A bargain! 11. Eric Denton #2 (D) [$52K] Yeah, he's worth it. We could upgrade here, but it would cost us more. 12. John Cunliffe #20 (F) [$51K]* I missed the RSL match, but it sounds like he's worth the money. Sub $50K Group These guys are all cheap and every MLS club needs players in this category, because you can't have $200k+ players at every position. 13. Jason Hernandez #21 (D) [$48K] Yup! 14. Kelly Gray #22 (D, M) [$38K] I hope so. 15. James Riley #4 (D, M) [$33K] Yeah, even James! 16. Ryan Johnson #19 (M) [$33K]* A steal! He'll cost us more next year. 17. Joe Vide #6 (M) [$33K]* Even Joe. 18. Shea Salinas #15 (M, F) [$33K]* Absofrickenlutely! 19. Dan Benton #31 (G) [$33] <---$33K is a guess. Sure thing! Though I still want Eric Reed. + DEV Players I think that we should try to get better players, don't get me wrong. I'm just saying that we aren't overpaying for most of our guys. When Ayers gets healthy, he might push Cochrane for playing time. If Ayers replaces Ryan, then Ryan would be overpaid. GOOOOO QUAAAAKES!!!!! - Mark
OK. I've had to do some interpretive magic on your posts, but I've tried to pool our opinions to give us a collective analysis. I gave 2 points to players in our top groups, 1 point to players in the next group down, (.5 or 1.5 when tough to decide), and then tallied the points. Here are the results so far (and correct me where I got things wrong -- e.g. mark, I just guessed at your points): Garcia-------8pts (JJ:2, m8:2, Q:2, R:2) Guerrero----7.5pts (JJ:2, m8:1.5, Q:2, R:2) Cannon------7pts (JJ:2, m8:2, Q:1, R:2) O'Brien------6pts (JJ:1.5, m8:1.5, Q:1, R:2) Johnson-----6pts (JJ:2, m8:1, Q:2, R:1) Corrales-----5pts (JJ:1, m8:1, Q:1, R:2) Salinas------4.5pts (JJ:2, m8:1.5, Q:1, R:--) Cochrane----4pts (JJ:1, m8:1, Q:1, R:1) Hernandez---4pts (JJ:1, m8:1, Q:1, R:1) Grabavoy----3.5pts (JJ:--, m8:1.5, Q:1, R:1) Kamara------3.5pts (JJ:1, m8:1.5, Q:1, R:--) Cunliffe------1.5pts (JJ:1, m8:.5, Q:--, R:--) What do you think? Any more opinions? I wonder how this changes after the Columbus game....
I hope this is more what you were looking for. Remember, this is based on a price/performance analysis. So Salinas and Kamara make my top list because we aren't paying that much for them. Grabavoy also. We could do better than Ned, but it would take at least double the money. Then we'd have more players in the sub $50k range. Top Guys! Cannon Garcia Guerrero Grabavoy Kamara Johnson (RJ!) Salinas Worth what we pay them, but I want more Corrales Cochrane Denton Cunliffe (I missed the RSL game) Hernandez Gray - I hope! O'Brien - I want more, but I'm greedy. Dan Benton - Haven't seen him play, but if he can be our backup GK, he's cheap. Marginal Guys, either underperforming, or just not good enough Kirovski - need to see more, keeping my fingers crossed. Glinton - cut him Riley - needs to be more consistently good. Vide - Needs to play better or pack his things. For me, these last four are on the bubble. They need to either show that they are quality MLS players, or they need to make way for re-enforcements. GOOOOO QUAAAAAAKES!!!!! - Mark
I'm late to the thread, but I'm travelin' Garcia Grabavoy Guerrero Cannon Corrales O'Brien Salinas Hernandez Johnson Cunliffe Riley Gray Kamara Denton Vide Cochrane Kirovski Glinton
I like your list and your value-per-dollar take -- maybe I'll redo your numbers and add KMJvet's list to the mix too... Here's a question (directed at you mark, but also to everyone else). If money weren't an issue at all and you were just rating the player's importance to the team, would your list really change that much?
Sorry, I'm not going to play this game. One reason is if you compare MLS salaries to other sports like baseball, American football or basketball. MLS salaries suck. Second if you compare MLS salaries to other soccer leagues in Europe or even in Mexico, MLS salaries really suck. As far as I'm concerned all the players are under-paid. Some of these salaries wouldn't even be considered a living wage in this part of the country. I'm hoping that (a) the salary cap is increase and (b) the MLS min salary is increased. So I'm not playing this game, no way.
A revised list. And it looks like Garcia, Guerrero, and Cannon are in the lead. KMJvet - I gave 2pts to your top five and then 1pt to the next six (a top "11"). markmcf8 - I gave 2 to your top group and 1 to your next group. Garcia-------10pts (JJ:2, K:2, m8:2, Q:2, R:2) Guerrero----10pts (JJ:2, K:2, m8:2, Q:2, R:2) Cannon------10pts (JJ:2, K:2, m8:2, Q:1, R:2) Johnson------8pts (JJ:2, K:1, m8:2, Q:2, R:1) Corrales-----7pts (JJ:1, K:2, m8:1, Q:1, R:2) O'Brien-------6.5pts (JJ:1.5, K:1 m8:1, Q:1, R:2) Grabavoy----6pts (JJ:--, K:2, m8:2, Q:1, R:1) Salinas-------6pts (JJ:2, K:1, m8:2, Q:1, R:--) Hernandez---5pts (JJ:1, K:1, m8:1, Q:1, R:1) Cochrane----4pts (JJ:1, K:--, m8:1, Q:1, R:1) Kamara------4pts (JJ:1, K:--, m8:2, Q:1, R:--) Cunliffe------3pts (JJ:1, K:1, m8:1, Q:--, R:--) Denton-------1pt (JJ:--, K:--, m8:1, Q:--, R:--) Gray---------1pt (JJ:--, K:--, m8:1, Q:--, R:--) Riley---------1pt (JJ:--, K:1, m8:--, Q:--, R:--)
Alan S -- Obviously, this game isn't for everyone, and you don't have to play. ...but I think you misunderstand the "rules". The idea is to take the $$$$ out of the equation (and I think almost everyone here would agree that MLS players are underpaid), and give a ranking of the players based not on their paltry salaries, but on their value to the team. [result]Cannon, Garcia, and Guerrero are highest ranked. I know you play the "line-up" game (and you advocate a 4-5-1), so you clearly evaluate the players and think critically about them. I'm curious about how do they stack up for you. In the ideal world, your ranking would be correct, the top of the list would be better compensated than the bottom, and you could pay them whatever astronomical salary you like. Yes, I'm kind of curious to see how the list of "value to the team" lines up with the salary ranking. And yes, you could choose to play by different rules (like, most valuable to the team if we played in a 4-5-1, or whatever). And no, you still don't have to play, but... this is sort of the opposite of the "salary" game (who would you give a raise to, who do you cut, and whose contract do you renegotiate down at the end of the season).[/result]
OK, So I'm going to flip-flop on this issue faster than a presidential candidate can fly from Iowa to New Hampshire to give a speech. Here are my ranking. However the value is not linear. The group in the middle is bunched up. I'm also going to break with some generally accepted opinions on this board, so brace yourselves. Cannon Garcia O'Brien (see note #1) Guerrero Corrales Johnson Grabavoy (#2) Kamara Cochrane (#3) Salinas Hernandez Denton Glinton (#4) Riley Cunliffe (#5) Vide (#6) Gray (#7) : (drop 100 places) : Kirovski (#8) Notes: (#1) Key player when on the field, assumption is ROB's knee does not give-out. (#2) Some good moments, but we need a Zinha. (#3) Some bad moments, but better than most think. He stuck like glue to Ching in the Houston game and as critical in that win. (#4) I think better than consensus, but needs to come off the bench. (#5) Scored our latest goal, but 3 seconds of brilliance doesn't make you a hero every game. If he keeps scoring however, will rise quickly. I see the same under-rated tenacity in Cunliffe as was in Alejandro Moreno '05. (#6) I wish he were doing better. (#7) Hasn't done anything for us yet, but could climb if he does. (#8) I'm going to barf.
Alan - I gave 2 pts to your top six players, then 1 point to the next six. Revised ranking: Cannon------12pts (A:2, JJ:2, K:2, m8:2, Q:1, R:2) Garcia-------12pts (A:2, JJ:2, K:2, m8:2, Q:2, R:2) Guerrero----12pts (A:2, JJ:2, K:2, m8:2, Q:2, R:2) Johnson------10pts (A:2, JJ:2, K:1, m8:2, Q:2, R:1) Corrales-----9pts (A:2, JJ:1, K:2, m8:1, Q:1, R:2) O'Brien-------8.5pts (A:2, JJ:1.5, K:1 m8:1, Q:1, R:2) Grabavoy----7pts (A:1, JJ:--, K:2, m8:2, Q:1, R:1) Salinas-------7pts (A:1, JJ:2, K:1, m8:2, Q:1, R:--) Hernandez---6pts (A:1, JJ:1, K:1, m8:1, Q:1, R:1) Cochrane----5pts (A:1, JJ:1, K:--, m8:1, Q:1, R:1) Kamara------5pts (A:1, JJ:1, K:--, m8:2, Q:1, R:--) Cunliffe------3pts (A:--, JJ:1, K:1, m8:1, Q:--, R:--) Denton-------2pts (A:1, JJ:--, K:--, m8:1, Q:--, R:--) Gray---------1pt (A:--, JJ:--, K:--, m8:1, Q:--, R:--) Riley---------1pt (A:--, JJ:--, K:1, m8:--, Q:--, R:--)
A couple observations: First, I completely agree that the top three players in the list have been good for us. I could see some expecting more from Cannon, but.... I think he's been let down by the 10 in front of him, and if he were playing on a better team, he would also look like a much better player, so I'm happy to agree with Group I as being our best players. Second, a couple of clusters are starting to appear. Group I - 12pts Cannon, Garcia, Guerrero Group II - 8-10pts Johnson, Corrales, O'Brien Group III 5-7pts Grabavoy, Salinas, Hernandez, Cochrane, Kamara Group IV 3pts and under Cunliffe, Denton, Gray, Riley I'm stoked because my top six players are the six players found in Groups I and II. (Of course, I got the order wrong, and split groups between players 5 and 6, but...) Third, there have been six "votes" so far. Players with more than 6 points, then, have impressed (on the average). The OVER SIX POINTS Group is comprised of eight players: Cannon, Garcia, Guerrero, Johnson, Corrales, O'Brien, Grabavoy, Salinas. I'd like to suggest that this is the "tentative" list of players who will continue to be important for us next year. The core of the Quakes to come. (Obviously this will change as the season goes on - we've only got nine games to go on.) It seems to suggest that we need to find: a forward and three defenders. ...perhaps some of them will come from within the team (Hernandez and Cochrane are on the bubble to breaking in, so...)? Of these top eight: R: I'm 7 for 8. I have Hernandez there instead of Salinas. JJ: You gave two unranked groups, but adding ROB to your top group means you went 5 for 6 of the top 6 -- Salinas is tied for 7th in the combined ranking. Your top 11 are our top 11 - nice job. Q: You're also 7 for 8. You've got Cochrane instead of Salinas. Nice list! m8: Your top 7 are among our top 8 - the missing player is ROB, and you have him in the next group down. Good picks! K: Wow. 7 for 8. You have Hernandez where our list has Johnson, but your #9 pick is Johnson. Excellent! A: Again, 7 for 8 (!). You have Kamara as your #8 - where our list has Salinas. .....who you have just two spots below that. Hmm... [result]Perhaps your picks aren't that different from BS common wisdom! (Or, at least, the pick of this game's participants!)[/result]
Roblar - the one concern I might have about these popularity ranking-games is the results would tend to favor offensive minded positions. So a forward that might on average rank higher then an equally good defender.
Good point - that is always a problem. Especially with things like fans voting for all-star teams and stuff. I'm just going to assume that we Quakes posters are better than that and have adjusted accordingly.... I mean, .....take a look at my top 5 list -- there's only one player (ROB) who is known for his attacking skills there: Cannon ROB Guerrero Garcia Corrales I expect others to adjust accordingly. (Admittedly, the real reason Quakes fans don't have many attacking players listed is that our attacking players haven't done that well so far this year. <pause> I expect Johnson's stock will have risen considerably as a result of the Columbus game.)