a more telling Hex table?

Discussion in 'USA Men: News & Analysis' started by dna77054, Oct 16, 2009.

  1. dna77054

    dna77054 Member+

    Jun 28, 2003
    houston
    Given that we will not be seeing any minnows in the WC, I decided to remove them from the HEX table, giving us the following. This might give more insight as in only includes WC caliber teams.


    team W D L Pts GF GA GD*
    Mexico 4 0 2 12 9 5 +4
    USA 3 1 2 10 11 10 +1
    CR 2 1 3 7 7 12 -5
    Hond 2 0 4 6 9 9 0

    *may have forgotten a goal somewhere, but I think it is correct.

    So the presence of the minnows aided the US and Honduras to the detriment of Mexico and Costa Rica. A few points worth noting:

    1. Surprisingly Mexico had the best defense. I would have put money on the US.
    2. CR earns more points against the big boys than Honduras, but does not qualify directly due to the minnows.
    3. US gives up 1.8 goals a game. That usually will not cut it in the WC.
     
    1 person likes this.
  2. brinoch

    brinoch New Member

    Jun 6, 2009
    Silver Spring, MD
    Interesting, but not necessarily all that revealing. Outside of South Africa, you also won't have any sides with a huge home advantage.
     
  3. Bigrose30

    Bigrose30 Member+

    Sep 11, 2004
    Jersey City, NJ
    You've got to beat the teams you play.
     
  4. Bigrose30

    Bigrose30 Member+

    Sep 11, 2004
    Jersey City, NJ
    6 games will also not cut it as a sample size, if you insist on using statistics as analysis tool.
     
  5. judodono

    judodono Member

    Jun 14, 2005
    Bay Area, Ca.
    Club:
    --other--
    interesting analysis..
     
  6. deuteronomy

    deuteronomy Member+

    Angkor Siem Reap FC
    United States
    Aug 12, 2008
    at the pitch
    Club:
    Siem Reap Angkor FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Signature worthy!:)
     
  7. judodono

    judodono Member

    Jun 14, 2005
    Bay Area, Ca.
    Club:
    --other--
    that's not the point he's trying to make.

    I believe he's illustrating our strength against Concacaf's best teams.
     
  8. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    Code:
    [B][U]     W  D  L  PTS GF  GA  GD[/U]
    MEX  4  0  2  12  9   5   +4
    USA  3  1  2  10  11  10  +1
    CRC  2  1  3  7   7   12  -5
    HND  2  0  4  6   9   9   0[/B]
    Couldn't read the table.

    So I fixed it.
     
    1 person likes this.
  9. Arid_Torpor

    Arid_Torpor Member

    Jun 1, 2006
    Durham, NC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    You forgot one thing:

    USA and Costa Rica played after the US had already qualified. I know we put out our A team, but they had their backs against the wall and we didn't. It's not far-fetched to say that we win that game if we'd needed it for qualification. And if we win that game, then the table has USA and Mexico tied for first and Honduras and Costa Rica tied for third. Just sayin'
     
  10. yellowbismark

    yellowbismark Member+

    Nov 7, 2000
    San Diego, CA
    Club:
    Club Tijuana
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Mexico is helped by not having to play against themselves twice. They sure are hard to beat at Azteca :eek: :p
     
    1 person likes this.
  11. Clint Eastwood

    Clint Eastwood Member+

    Dec 23, 2003
    Somerville, MA
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    Seeing as El Salvador beat Mexico and Costa Rica.........and drew the United States..........I don't see how anybody can call them a "minnow" anymore. They were much better than advertised this cycle.......and still people don't give them credit.

    All it really tells you is that Honduras took care of business against the bottom two while Costa Rica didn't.
     
  12. Nermalthecat

    Nermalthecat Member

    Mar 1, 2001
    Avon, CT
    That and there were only two other "unexpected" results between the four big teams: Mexico winning at Costa Rica and US winning at Honduras.

    More or less, it confirms what we more or less know: The US and Mexico are the two best teams in the region, and it's pretty close between HON and CRC for third-best. I think HON is the better team, but CRC is lamenting not only the Bornstein goal at the death but also the 90th min winner for El Salvador in Matchday 8. How big does THAT point lost look now?
     
  13. Nermalthecat

    Nermalthecat Member

    Mar 1, 2001
    Avon, CT
    Not really. Honduras was one point better than Costa Rica against the bottom 2. They gave up an 89th minute equalizer at T&T while CRC lost at the death in El Salvador.

    The much bigger factor was the eight-goal swing in Honduras 4-0 home win over Costa Rica. Given the final GD differential was six goals, Costa Rica outperformed Honduras over the other nine games of the Hex. Had CRC even lost by two goals there, perhaps the strategy of both teams changes down the stretch.
     
  14. Nermalthecat

    Nermalthecat Member

    Mar 1, 2001
    Avon, CT
    They weren't all that much better at home than T&T, to be honest.

    El Salvador went 2-1-2, 7 GF, 6 GA
    T&T went 1-2-2, 6 GF, 7 GA

    Yes, T&T's win was over El Salvador (which went pointless on the road while T&T picked up a lone road point at ES), so ES's home wins are of a higher quality, but let's not overblow how good ES was. They were still a minnow in this group, not faring any better than Guatemala or your typical fifth-place Hex team. T&T had two-one goal losses and two draws against the top four at home.

    What's exciting for the region is seeing teams like ES get better. T&T is a Hex regular and teams like Guatemala, Panama (KO'd in dramatic fashion by ES in round 2, before the semis), Jamaica and Canada didn't make the Hex this year. The semifinal round in 2012 could be more difficult than any top seed would want. Already, you're looking at one semifinal group with two of the top four from this Hex in it and a likely third team that won't be a pushover.
     
  15. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Actually 10/6 = 1.(6 repeating) or 1.7 to the nearest tenth.
     
  16. dirtynine

    dirtynine Member

    Brighton & Hove Albion FC
    United States
    May 4, 2002
    Philly
    Club:
    Brighton & Hove Albion FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Also, there's at least some chance that the US does see minnows in the WC, depending on where NZ/Bahrain end up.
     
  17. Mr Martin

    Mr Martin Member+

    Jun 12, 2002
    Club:
    Philadelphia Union
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I don't mind the concept of looking at the US vs the stronger, potential WC teams. Interesting idea.

    It got me thinking about how the US has faired during this cycle against those teams already in the WC. A-team results only, since I assume we are taking the A-team to the World Cup. 2007-2009.

    vs. Honduras: 3-2, 2-1, 2-0, and 2-0 (4-0-0, 9/3)

    vs. Mexico: 1-2, 2-0, 2-2, 2-1, 2-0 (3-1-1, 9/5)

    vs. Switzerland: 1-0

    vs. South Africa: 1-0

    vs. Spain: 0-1, 2-0 (1-1-0, 2/1)

    vs. Argentina: 0-0

    vs. England: 0-2

    vs. Italy: 1-3

    vs Brazil: 2-3, 0-3, 2-4 (0-3-0, 4/10)


    Overall: 10-7-2, 27/24.


    Other possible teams are Costa Rica and Egypt, depending on results in November matches. There are also B-team matches we had vs Denmark, Paraguay, Argentina, and Mexico.
     
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  18. RegularGuy

    RegularGuy Member

    Jun 17, 2009
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I'm not really sure what it's telling us. I think mostly it's telling us that Mexico's road win against a non-minnow (thrashing Costa Rica 3-0) was better than ours (3-2 against Honduras).

    Other than that, the question is what does the fact that Mexico had more trouble with the minnows than we did mean? I'm not sure that's necessarily a positive, nothwithstanding the "no minnows in the WC" point.

    Bottom line to me is that the table is the table. You play 8 common games and 2 head to head. At the end, the table doesn't lie.
     
  19. FirstStar

    FirstStar Hustlin' for the USA

    Feb 1, 2005
    Time's Arrow
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    And, surprisingly, the USA are hard to beat at home. Truth is that the table is a very small sample and is (I think) skewed quite a bit by Matchday 10. Think about it-- we took 4 points on the road against the "minnows" . . . Mexico took 1. If you want, you can probably find a way to conclude that it a terrible indicator for them. I think it's just a small sample.
     
  20. brinoch

    brinoch New Member

    Jun 6, 2009
    Silver Spring, MD
    Mr. Martin's additional analysis is quite interesting.

    I think our team has a good shot at advancing -- provided we aren't drawn into a group of death. Quite a few of our matches have been against presumably seeded teams, which I think will be a great help. Certainly, it is great experience for the players. And while we may not be able to consistently defeat or draw seeded teams like England, Italy, Spain, or Brazil, we can and do defeat lesser teams.

    After the draw, it would be interesting to take a look at how the rest of our group has compared against common opponents and other WC teams.
     
  21. SideshowBob

    SideshowBob Member

    Jan 12, 2007
    Northern VA
    Club:
    Philadelphia Union
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I suspect El Salvador -- especially El Salvador at home -- is as good as some teams that will be in the World Cup. Granted, the US is unlikely to see any of those teams in our group, but I don't think they are a "minnow" to the extent that they'd be horrendously out of place in the World Cup.
     
  22. Roehl Sybing

    Roehl Sybing Guest

    I really wouldn't put too much stock into this, considering going from a six-nation group to a four-nation group would drastically affect scheduling and roster decisions. Going to a four-nation group would lessen the need for double matchdays as well, and the US after beating Honduras in the summer probably wouldn't necessarily need to go to Costa Rica in the same week and lose there because of fatigue, for example.

    Removing T&T and El Salvador from the equation creates problems that would likely change the results of matches among the best four in the group.
     
  23. Marko72

    Marko72 Member+

    Aug 30, 2005
    New York
    This whole thread is a prime example of cherry-picking results to make it sound like Mexico is superior and actually won the "real" Hex (actually, the "real" Quad). And I'm frankly not surprised that the OP came up with this.

    Another argument that could be made with the very same data is that the USA is more consistent and less liable to let-downs than Mexico (and thus less likely to give away "must earn" points), having drawn as opposed to losing in El Salvador, and having won as opposed to drawing T&T.

    Which would be equally bogus. Especially since we were both already qualified on the final matchday, which made up the very difference in the OP's carefully cherry-picked Hex table that he was referring to.
     
  24. Mglnbea

    Mglnbea Member

    Jun 26, 2001
    Northern California
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States

    You're forgetting, or deliberately ignoring, a couple of things:

    After everybody played everybody in the Hex, the US finished in First Place.

    In head to head matches, the US defeated Mexico 2-0 at home, and lost to Mexico away, 2-1. That is a 3-2 goal differential in favor of the US. (Hey, I can cherry pick results also!)

    The US is going to the World Cup in South Africa, as is Honduras and Mexico.

    Costa Rica, at this time, MIGHT go to the WC in South Africa.


    There are lies, damned lies and statistics, ergo, stick your table where the sun does not shine, preferably where you are concerned.
     
  25. deuteronomy

    deuteronomy Member+

    Angkor Siem Reap FC
    United States
    Aug 12, 2008
    at the pitch
    Club:
    Siem Reap Angkor FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    1 person likes this.

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