2026 World Cup (very) early roster predictions

I'm merely looking at performance over a larger sample. Yes, Pulisic performed against Real, but he's also been an up and down player. Adams performed in the UCL as well; it's just that goals and assists aren't his game. He's not Casemiro, but neither is Pulisic in terms of quality.

The fact that we're debating it is good enough for my point. Whether it's Adams or McKennie that on Pulisic's level or has his upside ... neither were a Pulisic or Reyna-level prospect at 14 or 15. Even at 17, both had question marks.

So I really can't look at the '07s and say, nope, no chance of high level players because we don't have someone at the level of our two best prospects of the last decade (and probably ever) right this instant.

 

A C for Chelsea, a pernicious influence that has hurt many a career.

Pulisic created more value because his inherent and acquired skills allow him to succeed at the role he plays at a high level. If Adams could do similarly he would, but he can’t, so he is less valuable (in sporting terms).

Again, apply a probabilistic frame. Pulisic had more talent than Adams at the same age and it was distributed in a way that made early success likely. That’s what defines that tier of prospect. Adams had less talent (touch, ball control, passing accuracy, vision, close control dribbling, ball control, shooting, crossing, finishing etc…) and still has less because these fundamental skills are largely set by the late teens. However, he had some very strong qualities distributed in a way that made him potentially very useful in a couple of lower individual value roles (that teams need to fill). So he then took the talents he did have and applied a great professional mentality to honing them in an environment that just so happened to suite his particular set of skills. This is the process by which a lower tier prospect achieves an outcome near the top of their potential.

If people were to apply a probabilistic frame then your concern about becoming too definitive vanishes. Tiers within this conception have overlap in potential outcomes but are defined by the range of outcomes players are most likely to achieve. So data has falsified nothing.

Cremaschi looked good with the U19s along with Neri and a couple others. If they or a U20 or some kid in a Euro or MLS or USL academy hits their top 10-20% outcome they could make it. There’s not a teen I’ve seen who makes it with a top 30-50% outcome is what I’m saying.

 

That U23 list of creative attacking mids is crying out for a 4-2-3-1.

If I was in charge I’d give all the young attackers and midfielders a run out without any over 23s, and save those 3 slots for 2 CBs and a backup Keeper.

 

I don’t know the markets that well, but Tyler’s defensive acumen at the DM spot doesn’t seem that common to me. That + the importance of the role to team success would suggest high market value to me. But maybe I am missing something.

 

D-mids don't develop as early as wide-attackers. A direct comparison of Adams and Pulisic at the same age is not useful for the purpose of talent comparison.

Who created more value at the WC? The WC team was built around getting CP the ball in the inverted position. He was the feature attacker. And he did solidly in the role. Maybe the team surrenders more goals without Adams.

 

That's one way to look at it. Another way is that the skills that Pulisic has do often manifest earlier than other skills and tools that Adams has. But there's an assumption that that those are more valuable.

I don't necessarily think Pulisic's first touch is more valuable by definition than Adam's defensive tactical sense and ability to read an attack. His high levels of work rate and iron lungs are something not always differentiated at 15 but by 23 it's obvious there's value there.

I think people tend to overvalue ball skills relative to some of these other skill sets. Is Adams at the top of his possible set of outcomes? I'm not sure how you are so certain of that. Or are you simply evaluating Pulisic and Adams' upsides in a manner in which ball skills is the only one that is limited and that Pulisic has as much ability to reach Adams' work rate and tactical sense ... except he probably doesn't?

---------

Moreso, does it matter? This all started with the idea that the next wave of kids won't perform to the level of the current (in my opinion 2 waves) of kids because there is a Reyna/Pulisic ball skill wizard in the crew (I might even argue that last point with Cavan Sullivan, though he's probably too young).

But if someone becomes an elite defensive CB, a world class keeper or a fox in the box poaching striker ... does it matter that they aren't a dribbler? Does it matter that you think Adams has reached more potential than Pulisic if we get three more players who add that much value?

I simply think there is too much certainty.

 

I said I was talking about on-field value. According to TM the largest fee for a DM was the €80m RM paid for Tchouameni, it was the 26th highest fee (not adjusted for inflation) in history. 19/25 of the highest fees of all time were for attackers.

 

Actually it is because it goes to what talent is. I think capacity to learn is something I would consider a talent and it is hard to see from a couple year sample but not fully impossible. It is hard to isolate out because you’d have to have some conception of what is being taught and the quality of instruction. If you watch the tape you’ll see how players respond to on-field “learning experiences”. It’s also not like cost-benefit analysis, pattern recognition, etc… are the only role critical skills DMs have. It typically takes time to acquire the knowledge and experience to do that consistently but for instance Adams had the instinctive recognition of an attacker’s vulnerability to turning it over or when to apply pressure to force that and the conviction to do it decisively.

So when making a talent assessment an observer must account for the age at which different talents present themselves and the effects of the environment on that presentation. Attackers have a “structural advantage” because their most important abilities present earlier but capacity to learn and ability to coordinate actions with others are both very important for their ultimate ceiling. The nature of the roles is also that if an attacker gets it right once a game they are a legend and if a defender gets it wrong they are a liability. So risk taking (something the young do more of) is required by one and punished in the other.

Overall the bulk of things that should be considered talent do present in the teens and can be weighed at that time. A not atypical pattern for a high overall talent, eventually successful DM is that they are good enough at other things that they play in another role (which requires more of these talents) and eventually their DM specific abilities develop enough, or they fall short in the other role, that they move back. Adams did not have enough talent distributed in that way so he had to be a defensive RB/RWB and a roaming destroyer before he began to specialize more as a true DM. He has had to try to learn how to overcome his skill weak points and take a step down in club ambition to play that role.

Yes the possession value models (that measure all the actions players take and assign a value in terms of goal difference) find that attacking players “produce” more value but of course this system is only measuring what happens that’s recorded. It doesn’t measure what’s not recorded and what didn’t happen. For instance it would not measure Adams’ failure to recover into the DM space which allowed Depay an open shot on the Netherlands’ first goal. There are also spatial control models that try to value the pitch control gained from player positioning but they are not widely shared and are relatively new. So while it is clear that defensive contributions are harder to quantify I do not think that means they are necessarily greater than easy to measure offensive ones. Just inherent to the win condition of the sport scoring is extremely important and players who are capable of and do have a disproportionate involvement in scoring are the most valuable (again, in sporting terms).

 

Adams has typically played in double and triple pivots through his career. Sometimes he played in front of the backline. Other times he got forward more. At times, he played in wide positions when the need arose, but never consistently so. From Germany he has moved to a team in a better league and is playing with his former coach. Leeds' payroll is about 2/3 of Leipzig's. That's the financial reality of European futbol. Leeds aren't a huge downgrade. And he's a lock starter at Leeds. Pulisic is a rotation player at Chelsea. There's not much of an argument to be made that Pulisic's being at the bigger club implies he is the better player. And if Adams continues his current level of play, he'll likely move up.

W/re respect to relative value of an attacker vs that of a defender, it's always been more difficult to quantify the value of. Just as important, it's more difficult to discern the value of a defender, as so much of the value they contribute is off the ball. Is the value of an attacker intrinsically greater than that of a defender? Well, consider one of the very few specialist defender positions that has both a rich statistics history and an easily discernible performance character.

The baseball pitcher. And I just checked. 3 of the highest paid players in MLB are pitchers. Further, normalized for typically number of players, pitchers would likely dominate the pay charts.

 

GK
Matt Turner
Ethan Horvath
Chris Brady

LB
Antonee Robinson
Caleb Wiley

RB
Joe Scally
Aiden Harangi

CB
Chris Richards
Auston Trusty
Miles Robinson
Jalen Neal
Walker Zimmerman

CM
Tyler Adams
Weston McKennie
Yunus Musah
Tanner Tessman

AM
Gio Reyna
Taylor Booth
Brendan Aaronson

Winger
Christian Pulisic
Tim Weah
Kevin Paredes
Alejandro Zendejas

ST
Folarin Balogun
Ricardo Pepi
Josh Sargent

 

Sub Aaronson for Malik Tillman

 

Well I guess we can add Balogun to everyone's projected roster now.

 

My stab in the dark….

GOALKEEPERS
1. Matt Turner(31)
2. Ethan Horvath(30)
3. Zack Steffen(30)
A. Gabriel Slonina(22)

Can Slonina surpass one of the big three Turner, Horvath, or Steffen? At the moment, he’s looking at waiting his turn. Of course, there’s still Chris Brady(22), Roman Celentano(25), Drake Callender(28), and maybe one or two others, but I don’t expect there be a lot of opportunity for a new goalkeeper unless they do something truly special.

RIGHT BACKS
1. Joe Scally(23)
2. Sergino Dest(25)
A. Marlon Fossey(27), Reggie Cannon(27), or Bryan Reynolds(24)

Pretty much set in stone. But we should see Cannon brought back in. And Fossey and Reynolds should get a shot as a back up.

CENTER BACKS
1. Miles Robinson(29)
2. Chris Richards(26)
3. Auston Trusty(27)
4. Walker Zimmerman(33)
A. Mark McKenzie(27), Cameron Carter-Vickers(28), or Jalen Neal(22)

Sorry Tim Ream. But you’re too old. Same goes for Brooks and Long. But for now, I still see Zimmerman called in for his leadership even though I don’t think he’ll still be a starter. Besides them, we’re going to have to revamp our center back situation, but I think we have already identified a core to get us where we need to be. And because so, I think young guys like Jalen Neal are going to have to improve exponentially to get included.

LEFT BACKS
1. Jedi Robinson(28)
2. John Tolkin(23)
A. Caleb Wiley(21), Jonathan Gomez(23), DeJuan Jones(28), Mauricio Isais(25), and mayyyybe Sam Vines(27) or George Bello(24)

Jedi is set in stone. But the back up left back is wide open. I think Tolkin should have an inside track. But don’t count out Wiley and some others. It’ll be a key issue this cycle to ensure that we can keep Scally and Dest on the right side of the field.

MIDFIELDERS
1. Tyler Adams(27)
2. Weston McKennie(27)
3. Yunus Musah(23)
4. Luca de la Torre(28)
A. Noel Buck(21), James Sands(25), Pedro Soma(19), Aidan Morris(24), Rokas Puktsas(21), or Johnny Cardoso(24)

As it stands now, especially if we get wise to move to the 4231 formation, I think we know our guys: Adams, McKennie, Musah, and De la Torre. That said, there will be room to push these guys but none of the options right now have banged down the door to be included either…. Yet.

WINGERS / ATT MID
1. Christian Pulisic(27)
2. Gio Reyna(23)
3. Tim Weah(26)
4. Brenden Aaronson(25)
5. Paxten Aaronson(22)
6. Kevin Paredes(23)
A. Malik Tillman(24), Alejandro Zendejas(28), Brian Gutierrez(22), Jordan Morris(31), Djordje Mihailovic(27), Cade Cowell(22), or Taylor Booth(25)

If we have everyone healthy, this is going to be a crowded bunch. Even though I think we can identify that there are some vacancies left open from the 2022 roster. That said, Paxten Aaronson and Kevin Paredes have the inside track to lock those positions down….unless we move Paredes to LB which might open up another spot for another guy.

FORWARDS
1. Ricardo Pepi(23)
2. Keyrol Figueroa(19)
A. Jesus Ferreira(25), Josh Sargent(26), Brandon Vazquez(27), Daryl Dike(25), Jordan Pefok(30), or Haji Wright(28)

If Folarin Balogun(24) commits, this selection gets real easy. But as it stands now, Pepi is the only lock. And to be honest, I’m not excited about anyone behind him. That opens the door for my wild projection selection ~ Keyrol Figueroa evolves to become a force for the national team. That’s a total guess, of course. But no roster prediction would be fun without at least one impractical selection.

….Overall, this is still a very young team. More than that, you’re going to have to be more impressive this cycle than last to get call ups. Mainly, it’s going to become more and more of a precedent to play in Europe to receive call ups. Auditions will become more and more scarce.

Center back will be a concern. Depth at forward will be a concern. Back up left back will be a concern. Depth in the midfield will be a concern. Injuries will always be a concern. Form will be a concern. Meaningful games will be a concern.

 

Bet you wish you had takesy backsies...


Good list, as always.

https://www.bigsoccer.com/threads/folarin-balogun’s-one-time-switch-to-usa-approved.2125875/unread

 

This was as unwatchable as most USMN&A threads are unreadable.

 

Wow!!!