I wouldn't be surprised if he did, given his rhetoric and his actions. Maybe I've just gotten cynical. As for Sinema, she once complained that she needed time to train for a marathon, I just straight up assume she's going to be a hassle.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/maryland/draft_plan_1/ shows a draft of a 6D-2R map with a Republican gain in western MD. Where I am in Omaha, FiveThirtyEight says a Republican proposal to divide Omaha to keep all three districts Republican was rejected. With that plan, I wouldn't get to vote for anything that would be close. The compromise makes District 2 (which Biden won) go from the most even district acoording to FiveThirtyEight to R+3. One proposal in New York totally changes the district numbers. What is now District 2 becomes 15, and 25 becomes 2. You can say that the numbering doesn't matter, but changing numbers means you can't make a fair comparison of how a district is trending if many people in it came from a different number. There is a proposal for big changes in Iowa.
Not sure there is a thread on Va elections. In any case, the bedwetting can stop now... McAuliffe Maintains Lead for Virginia Governor A new Monmouth poll in Virginia finds Terry McAuliffe (D) leading Glenn Youngkin (R) in the governor’s race, 48% to 41% among registered voters. A range of potential electorate scenarios shows McAuliffe ahead by anywhere from 3 points (48% to 45%) to 7 points (50% to 43%) depending on the likely voter model. Youngkin does better when more low-propensity voters are included in the mix. Specifically, McAuliffe has a lead among voters who have cast ballots in every general election since 2016 (51% to 44%) and those who participated in 4 of the last 5 general elections (49% to 43%). Among those who voted in only 2 or 3 elections and are considered less reliable voters, the race is much closer (44% for McAuliffe and 42% for Youngkin).
I'm not too worried about the Gov race. It's the legislature that's got me concerned. Youngkin is supposedly putting a lot of money into supporting down-ballot races--which, hey, good for him--and the Dems took control of Richmond by flipping quite a few moderate-ish outer suburb districts. Keeping the state blue at that level isn't guaranteed.
In Texas it looks like dems may lose 0 seats and the reps only gain 2. New Texas maps are out and @Redistrict is ON IT! Bottom line: “blue-trending suburbs are forcing them to play more defense than offense” as R’s opt to shore up vulnerable incumbents instead of pressing their advantage. TX would go from 23R-13D to 25R-13D.https://t.co/7sjYAlU2TC— Amy Walter (@amyewalter) September 27, 2021
Oregon add a Dem seat. Going from 4D-1R to 5D-1R Oregon is on track to finalize the nation's first new congressional map - a likely 5D-1R plan (deadline is tonight). https://t.co/5Kg3HB0eSx— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) September 27, 2021
That's good to hear. All the frantic fundraising emails I delete without opening seem to be saying it's a tight race. I figured they were just trying to scare me into donating.
She’s right though Asked Ilhan Omar about Manchin/Sinema, and she said to me: “I would actually like them to make their demands clear so that we can engage with that. It is saddening to see them use Republican talking points. We obviously didn’t envision having Republicans as part of our party.”— Manu Raju (@mkraju) September 27, 2021
Nah...TMac is not losing. That ship has sailed for the GOP a while ago now in the Commonwealth of Va. Second poll this week with a 7 its lead for Terry. A new Roanoke College poll in Virginia finds Terry McAuliffe (D) maintains a 7-percentage point lead over Glenn Youngkin (R) in the race for governor, 48% to 41% with 9% still undecided.
BREAKING NEWS: Arizona Democrats declare war against Senator Kyrsten Sinema, start amassing a “war chest” to fund a primary challenger to defeat her and send her packing. RT IF YOU THINK THAT ARIZONA MUST GIVE SINEMA THE BOOT IN 2024!— Occupy Democrats (@OccupyDemocrats) October 2, 2021
So, with Sinema. Was she expected to be a conservative Dem? I seem to remember that a lot of Progressives liked her and her bio days she used to be Green party and was a “strong” advocate for progressive ideals..
The Republican candidate for governor, Glenn Youngkin, was part of the group that bought the rights to Taylor Swift's music. Terry McAuliffe is running ads about the controversy. The Youngkin campaign hopes to shake it off.
Side note.. Taylor Swift is a genius. While she doesn't own the rights to her old albums themselves, she owns the rights to the compilation of the songs. As a result, when the previous owner of her albums refused to sell them to her, she just went and re-recorded all of her albums and released them on her own label. Her new albums have now completely usurped the market for her old albums and the rights Youngkin and Co own are now basically worthless.
She was a conservative democrat in the house too, and more activist types in Arizona more or less expected this as her progressive days were long long ago before she was in elected politics. At the time she won the Senate it was thought that was needed to win the state, but Kelly and Biden winning more or less confirmed that the state is winnable for generic democrat.
One poll, but this has it as a 1 point race. Hopefully it is an outlayer. BTW, we Latinos are going cray cray. I am not sure if it is the republican party winning over Latinos, or democrats scaring some Latinos away. Emerson Polling - Virginia 2021: Dead Heat in Governor and Attorney General Race (reportablenews.com)
Some more detail on the Texas proposed maps. Basically the Texas GOP is making less competitive districts, packing more democrats into democrat districts and more republicans into what used to be lean republican districts making them safer for incumbents. The only few competitive districts are on the border where republicans see opportunities of eventually picking them up by winning more of the Latino vote. Texas’s New Congressional Map Could Give A Huge Boost To GOP Incumbents | FiveThirtyEight
So are the competitive seats that are becoming safe D already held by Dems? EDIT: Okay, I looked it up and it looks like Texas is currently 23R-13D and will go 24R-1T-13D. This could result in Texas being a +0R considering the competitive seat is in the area of Texas where most/all of the Strong Ds are.
That poll is a massive outlier. There is ZERO chance that young kin is leading Mac among latinos in Va. Take it with a grain of salt.
I no longer live in VA, but it doesn't seem like the state has completely gone to shit with dems in charge. The economy is good, weed is legal - what would make dem voters vote for trump lite? Unless the dems are too stoned to vote and the mouth breathers turn out in force.
When out of power, the base gets exited/angry. That is why 2022 is very dangerous for democrats in the house of reps, and maybe 1 or 2 democratic senators. If history repeats, the GOP are going to take back the house in 2022. Specially if Biden's approval rating stays below 50%.