It's time to start the 2022 election thread!! There's no way in heck I'm doing a chart for the House, but here's one for the Senate races. StateIncumbentPartyIntent AlabamaRichard ShelbyRepublicanIncumbent retiring. AlaskaLisa MurkowskiRepublicanIncumbent running. ArizonaMark KellyDemocraticIncumbent running. ArkansasJohn BoozmanRepublicanIncumbent running. CaliforniaAlex PadillaDemocraticIncumbent running. ColoradoMichael BennetDemocraticIncumbent running. ConnecticutRichard BlumenthalDemocraticIncumbent running. FloridaMarco RubioRepublicanIncumbent running. GeorgiaRaphael WarnockDemocraticIncumbent's intent unknown. HawaiiBrian SchatzDemocraticIncumbent running. IdahoMike CrapoRepublicanIncumbent's intent unknown. IllinoisTammy DuckworthDemocraticIncumbent running. IndianaTodd YoungRepublicanIncumbent running. IowaChuck GrassleyRepublicanIncumbent's intent unknown. KansasJerry MoranRepublicanIncumbent running KentuckyRand PaulRepublicanIncumbent's intent unknown. LouisianaJohn KennedyRepublicanIncumbent's intent unknown. MarylandChris Van HollenDemocraticIncumbent running. MissouriRoy BluntRepublicanIncumbent retiring. NevadaCatherine Cortez MastoDemocraticIncumbent running. New HampshireMaggie HassanDemocraticIncumbent running. New YorkChuck SchumerDemocraticIncumbent's intent unknown. North CarolinaRichard BurrRepublicanIncumbent retiring. North DakotaJohn HoevenRepublicanIncumbent's intent unknown. OhioRob PortmanRepublicanIncumbent retiring. OklahomaJames LankfordRepublicanIncumbent's intent unknown. OregonRon WydenDemocraticIncumbent running. PennsylvaniaPat ToomeyRepublicanIncumbent retiring. South CarolinaTim ScottRepublicanIncumbent's intent unknown. South DakotaJohn ThuneRepublicanIncumbent running. UtahMike LeeRepublicanIncumbent's intent unknown. VermontPatrick LeahyDemocraticIncumbent Intent Unknown WashingtonPatty MurrayDemocraticIncumbent's intent unknown. WisconsinRon JohnsonRepublicanIncumbent's intent unknown.
Some of this is going to depend on what exactly happens with the Republican party after Trump's departure from the White House, of course, but history tells us that Americans like to punish the President's party in the mid-term elections. Potential Republican pickups Arizona - could be a possibility for Republicans given their Republican controlled state government and history of the state as a Red state, but demographics and voting patterns have been shifting solidly Blue in Arizona for several cycles and Kelly is extremely popular.. I give this a poor chance for a Republican pickup. Georgia - certainly a possibility for the Republicans given Warnock's narrow victory over Loeffler and Georgia's history as a Republican state only being flipped Blue in this current election. We're also sure to see Georgia's Republican controlled legislature clamping down even further on voting rights in order to make sure less Democrats can vote in future elections. I give this a minor chance for a Republican pickup. Potential Democratic pickups Alaska - a very outside possibility depending on what happens with Murkowski. She is very popular in Alaska and even won a write-in election in 2010 when she lost the Republican primary. Her recent comments indicate she may actually leave the Republican party, so.... I give this a solid chance for a Democratic pickup if Murkowski joins the Democratic caucus, but a looooong chance if she does not. Florida - As the 2020 election showed, the Democratic party in Florida is in shambles and Dems seem to be falling further and further in the state level voting. I give this a long chance for a Democratic pickup. North Carolina - Burr is retiring, so this will be an open race. Demographics are shifting Blue in North Carolina, but that's been said since Obama won it back in 2008. It was a very close race in Tillis/Cunningham and Cunnigham likely would have won if he could have kept his dick in his pants. I'd give Dems an even chance to pick this up. Pennsylvania - Toomey is retiring, so this will be an open race. Pennsylvania seems to be shifting red with white, blue collar moving more and more into the Republican fold. However, unlike Florida, the Pennsylvania Democratic party remains strong. I give Dems an even chance to pick this up.
"Waiting until after the inaugeration" is the equivalent of routine day drinking. However, since we pour malt liquor from a forty over our cornflakes for breakfast....
I am glad Michigan isn't on the list for Senate. If I see John James running again, I will go back into journalism and ask him if he ever figured out why he's so confused.
BTW is Lisa Murkowski running as a republican? Last time she was elected as an independent after she lost the primary.
Looking at the map, other than North Carolina, where can Dems pick up seats? Florida? I am not confident with Florida. The good thing, is that other than Georgia, all other Dem incumbents should be favorites.
I agree. I saw a headline elsewhere about how the Senate map looks good for Democrats, but those are almost all seriously red states. The Dems figure to be the favorite in PA, Wisconsin is mixed, and they have fighting chances in North Carolina and Florida. The GOP has decent chances in Arizona and Georgia. I'd say maybe +1 for Dems, all things being equal.
Fetterman, the Lt Gv, is very close yo announce a Senate run in Pa. He could be a formidable candidate there. Dems have a better than even chance in Wisconsin specially if Ron Johnson decide to run. Although being an incumbent he is very unpopular. Wilker the Dem Wi Dem Party chairman could be a good candidate.
The map is almost completely fixed for both parties. And now that the states have been (largely) sorted, there won’t be a lot of movement either way. The 2024 cycle is the one that is unfavorable to Dems with Tester, Brown and Manchin defending. It’s not nearly as bad as 2018 because Heitkamp, Donnelly, McCaskill and Nelson are done. The other two cycles are neutral to Dem friendly. But similar to 2024 with the GOP, 2022 is now much less Dem friendly than they could have been because AZ and GA were already picked up. The best way to make 2022 Dem friendly is to make DC the 51st state of the United States.
Gotta think that Wednesday’s events increase the chances of this happening... DC was unable to call up the NG without DoD approval. Obviously they wouldn’t have been able to deploy the NG into the Federal district, but it would have given them several hours jump if they could have called them in and staged them for when approval was finally given...
Definitely. Those are the last three seats held by the partisan minority in non-purple states. Dems are also playing defense in other areas like PA, WI, AZ, MN and NV that cycle. Incumbents “should” win those 5, but there’s a lot of exposure. This is why finding a way to pick up a seat in 2022 + getting 2 more seats via DC is so important. There’s much that will happen between now and then, but +1 and 2 more from DC would likely push 2024 to a 50-50 proposition.
Think there's a strong chance 2022 is a status quo. But if we're talking flips, my guess is that Wisconsin and PA are the only real shots. Rubio won't go down. North Carolina might get interesting depending on the GOP Candidate
I would love for Ron Johnson to get upended. +3 is the ceiling I can see for Dems, if NC GOP puts out someone who's far right. That would inoculate them against 2024 as well
I think it’s safe to say GA, AZ, NV and NH are the only states that may be in play for the GOP while PA, WI, NC and FL are the only states that may be in play for the Dems. It seems highly unlikely either party could net more than 2 seats. The only way I see Dems being able to net more than a seat or two is if the post Trump fallout is so great that the party eats their own...or if a Rubio gets caught up in certain aspects of whatever comes to light over the next two years.
Senator Gym Jordan? WHOAH --> Portman won't run for re-election in 2022 https://t.co/yZntxj5YRX— Seung Min Kim (@seungminkim) January 25, 2021