Something that I think is hard to remember to keep accounting for is that the two groups appear to have been very imbalanced, at least at this point, especially taking into consideration that the Reign are struggling. Four of the top five teams from 2019 are in the same group, with only one cross-over game. In terms of how the knock-out rounds will go, that may turn out not to have been a big problem, but it may have the tendency to distort predictions to the extent they are trying to take the so called "standings" into account.
Waiting for Sky Blue-North Carolina Courage, I guess most of the people who predicted all the games of these two days are now, some way or some other, at 5 points! Tonight's match will really be the tie-breaker for all of us in this match-day.
With a strong 8 point performance over the past 4 games, lunatica maintains the lead going into the quarterfinals. But, there are 3 of us only 2 points back.
Ok, despite the fact that we still haven't an updated injury report, let's drop my prediction for the quarter-finals (do we have to also predict who advances in the case of a draw after regular time? Is there also extra-time scheduled or just penalty shootout after the 90'? I seem to remember the latter): NCC 1 POR 1 (NCC advances at PSO) HOU 1 UTA 2 WAS 2 NJ 0 RGN 0 CHI 0 (RGN advances at PSO) Not sure about what we do in the case of draws after the 90': do we add a bonus for correctly predicting who advances or do we leave the scoring-formula unchanged?
There's no extra time; games will go directly to penalty kicks. If we use last year's formula for playoffs for all of the knockouts, there was a bonus for correctly predicting the correct advancing team from a draw. Also I'm not sure what to do about the ladder predictions; most did one, but it was all last minute, and I think only 2 did a prediction of the semifinalists/playoffs in advance. I'm totally okay with giving credit for those who were on top of it, but I'd also see merit in just letting it all be "for fun" since it wasn't decided to do them with much notice. By the way, just so it's in one thread, here's last year's point system. It'll help me, too, in not having to go back and look at the other thread: Ladder Predictions (to be posted before the first game of the season begins): 6pts - Perfect prediction of a team's end position on the ladder 3pts - 1 position off of a team's end position on the ladder 1pt - - 2 positions off of a team's end position on the ladder 6pts - Correctly picking the group of 4 playoff teams 4pts - Picking 3/4 of the group of 4 playoff teams 2pts - Picking 2/4 of the group of 4 playoff teams 1pt - - Picking 1/4 of the group of 4 playoff teams 4pts - Correctly picking the Shield/Spoon winners 2pts - Your Shield/Spoon winner is within 2 positions 2pts - The real Shield/Spoon winner is within 2 positions on your ladder 2pts - For each correct advancement you put through the playoffs 1pt - - Correct method of advancement (regulation, OT, or PKs) for the semifinals 2pts - Correct method of advancement (regulation, OT, or PKs) for the final/title 6pts - Making one ladder prediction and never editing it -1pts - For every week up to wk12 that's been played before your prediction is finalized Regular Season Predictions (to be posted as the season progresses, with each game prediction to be posted before that game begins): 3pts - Exact score predicted 2pts - Correct GD predicted 1pt - - Correct W/L/D predicted +1pt - Not exact score, but correct goals scored for one team Playoff Predictions (to be posted as the playoffs progress, with each game prediction to be posted before that game begins): 8pts - Exact score predicted (W/L) 8pts - Exact score predicted (D) WITH correct advancing team 6pts - Exact score predicted (D), wrong advancing team 4pts - Exact score predicted (D) at 90min but not 120min WITH correct advancing team 3pts - Exact score predicted (D) at 90min but not 120min, wrong advancing team 5pts - Correct GD predicted (W/L) 4pts - Correct GD predicted (D) WITH correct advancing team 3pts - Correct GD predicted (D), wrong advancing team 2pts - Correct GD predicted (D) at 90min but not 120min WITH correct advancing team 1pt - - Correct GD predicted (D) at 90min but not 120min, wrong advancing team 3pts - Correct W/L prediction 2pts - Correct advancing team if you predicted W/L by 1 goal but match was D 1pt - - Correct advancing team if you predicted W/L by 2+ goals but match was D +1pt - Not exact score, but correct goals scored for one team 6pts - correct prediction of the Final game MVP
NCC 1 POR 2 (upset!) HOU 1 UTA 1 (HOU wins in PK!) close one! WAS 2 NJ 1 (late goal lifts WAS!) RGN 1 CRS 3 (CRS break-out game, finally!)
Given the paucity of goals at this tournament, my bet would be that you win this contest. But I can't resist predicting more goals than are likely to happen.
I thought I saw an injury report for NC - POR, but I cannot find it again. I cannot find any other injury reports either. So I will jump in anyway..... For July17-18: NCC 2 POR 1 HOU 2 UTA 1 WAS 2 NJ 1 RGN 0 CRS 1
I think this is all the info out there: Well it was fun while it lasted pic.twitter.com/NHMz8uv3J1— Katelyn Best 🇵🇸 (@BestKabest) July 16, 2020 X-posting with the pbp thread EDIT: with fuller injury report
I actually was going to go big on Portland upsetting NC but seeing the injury report, I thought better of it: NC 2 POR 0 HOU 1 UTA 2 WAS 2 NJ 1 RGN 1 CHI 1 (Chicago advance on penalties)
Since this thing has created some problems in the past, and since we have a different person keeping a tally of the scores this year, I point out that @cpthomas reversed the order of some games, putting the team that he predicts to win always first.
Surprisingly, the injury report for tomorrow is *actually* out a day in advance! So my guesses for those games: WAS 2-0 NJ RGN 2-1 CHI
Bowing to you, @59Amerinorsk: not a completely "perfect" prediction, but you did even nail the goal difference. For my part, i limited the damage by at least scrapping out one point from Portland's goal in my 1-1 prediction.
I haven't done the ladder predictions yet, just the quarterfinals, but I'll get to it. Promise! So, with an amazing 10-point performance from the quarterfinals, 59amerinorsk pulls into one point back from the leaders. Its a very tight race behind the two tied at the top, CoachJon and lunatica.
Mmm, I get the feeling that my RGN-CHI 0-0 prediction with the wrong advancing team has been rewarded a little too much: when there was extra-time scheduled, in the play-offs from the previous seasons, a gradation from 3 to 8 points for the exact score predicted did make sense, but now that there is no difference between the score at 90min and the score at 120min (that doesn't exist anymore) does it make sense to give so much more points to the predictors of the exact pre-pso score? Wouldn't it make sense to eliminate the two steps with "correct score at 90min but not at 120min" and to lower down the higher scores accordingly? Anyway, although the situation of the injured or questionable players could change before Wednesday, I am going to predict the semifinals anyway: POR 2 HOU 0 NJ 0 CHI 0 (NJ advances at penalty shootout) Edit: also, @lil_one: isn't there a thread for the semifinals yet?