2020 is mercifully over (CY and RSL-Y): Offseason News and Discussion

I've been hopeful that the depth on the team will keep them competitive with this compressed schedule. I've been critical of the lack of top end talent of this team and the questionable roster construction that seems to have left no spots for those difference makers once the team has the resources to add them.
It remains to be seen if Freddy can make the most of the talent on the team and make 1+1=3 or if he'll try to force a square peg into a round hole. It'll need to be the former if they want to sniff the playoffs.
I really enjoyed the game last night though.

 

RSL Season Preview up on the mothership. Not terribly insightful, as you'd expect. 6 out of 10 of the staff picked RSL to finish 13th in West. For those playing at home, there are only 13 teams in the west, and that includes expansion club Austin FC.

 

Hopefully, that provides some inspiration for the guys.

 

I called for Kreis' head at the end of the 2008 season and multiple times in 2009...

 

Last year was compressed, too. Freddy kept a lot of the same lineups despite it and the team was that much worse because of it. I haven't seen anything so far to believe he'll break that. in fact, his choices in preseason (long minutes) make me think he's doubling down on it

 

I didn't watch the game as I was with the wife for birthday festivities. Looks like we had a solid game against the first team from the cRapids for most of the game. It is preseason, so I'm not going to overstate what it is, but that is a solid result to build on. Kudos to Freddy.

Though, in typical Freddy fashion, all of the subs happened in the last 10 minutes. That seems especially egregious in preseason. I do not get how this guy continues to do this. It is something to watch how he manages in the April 7th game. Though, that one won't be streamed so we'll just have to take the game report as evidence

Of note: Yaya Toure plays for the cRapids?! oh, wait, not THAT Yaya.

 

I posted this on the soapbox article about the schedule but it bears repeating here:

I think anyone thinking this team has improved at all, or even enough to make the playoffs, is up in the night. I also don’t see the team as "just a few players away" from competing. The talent on this roster is all backup level, save maybe a handful of guys… and then you add in Freddy’s tactics and it falls apart.

Further, the schedule has A LOT of games in short bursts of time. There are 193 days between the opening game for RSL and the last one, so we’re already averaging a game every 5.7 days. That isn’t terrible, but that’s the surface level of it. You have to remember, 2021 will have breaks for Gold Cup and World Cup Qualifying. Really, I see the schedule as four segments, each with their own challenges.

1. Apr 24 – May 29: Six Games over 35 days (5.8)
2. Jun 18 – Jul 7: Five Games over 19 days (3.8)
3. Jul 17 – Oct 2: 17 Games over 75 days (4.4)
4. Oct 16 – Nov 7: Six Games over 21 days (3.5)

In the first segment of games, RSL is going to be a rough watch I think. All six games are against playoff teams. Four of the six are at home, so that helps, but the quality of the opponent might eliminate any potential advantage we’d get.

In the second segment of games, RSL will be without Rusnak for the first part and potentially most/all of this segment due to the Euros. This run of games starts and ends with Vancouver, a team we should be able to compete with, but also has a almost certain set of losses to Seattle and LAFC with a home game against Houston squeezed in there.

In the third segment, the longest consistent run of games, the "depth" of RSL will be put to the test. I’m not a huge believer in this depth being ready to compete this year. I think there are some young players on this roster that should be trusted, however, to grow and improve. This is the "dog days of summer" part of the schedule where RSL shows us who they actually are. The July 21/24 back to back home game stand is an interesting one. I think the three games after that, though – all on the road to HOU, LAG, and POR – are where RSL show any inkling of being a competitive soccer team. 10 of the 17 games are on the road in this stretch, a break from the traditional home heavy summer schedules we’ve seen in years past. I think that is what ultimately does RSL in. Not losing Herrera and Glad to the olympics makes this run a little more manageable. However, I wonder if they'll be in the Gold Cup rosters now. I don't know. Gold Cup runs July 10 - Aug 1.

The last segment of games doesn’t give RSL much room to make a late run. The two home games against SJ and the cRapids should probably be winnable, but having to go to Chicago, Dallas, and then finish at SKC doesn’t look to favor RSL.

My far too early and sure to be wildly wrong prediction is we finish with 40 points like this:

• Segment 1: 8 points
• Segment 2: 7 points
• Segment 3: 19 points
• Segment 4: 6 points

 

A couple of thoughts about this - I think 40 pts in a full season is an improvement over last year. Clearly not as much as we want, but I felt like last year RSL was lucky to finish with 22pts in 22 games. And the reality is that 45 pts is generally around the cutoff for making the playoffs. So, I think you are showing more optimism than I thought when I first started reading your comments. You also clearly aren't picking RSL to be anywhere near the cellar of the West with 40 points. Still not good enough for what we expect for this club long term, but I'd be weirdly okay with this outcome even though it isn't what I really want to see.

I see this team having taken some steps forward, but still multiple (not 1 or 2) players away from competing for a title.

Here is my the projected starters (per mlssoccer.com):


Projected Starting XI

Rubin (Sub level?): Credentials would probably put him as a sub, but we need to see what he can do at this level of play. Likely an upgrade from what we saw from Douglas last year, but how much of an upgrade? Wood's arrival in June (if not earlier) could push him out wide or to the bench.

Meram (Sub level): Has been a starter in this league, but seems to have lost a bit; struggling to see how he fits with the composition of the rest of this roster. Would arrival of Bobby Wood move him to the bench? Could Jeizon emerge (or at least show up?

Julio (Starter level?): Played well in Ecuadoran league, but struggled to break lineup in Liga MX; how does that project at MLS level? Good showing in first preseason match.

Rusnak (Starter level): Definitely clearly a starter based on potential but sometimes disappears for multiple games at a time. Is that a situation of the team as a whole being below par? Will he be pulling the strings at #10 (if not who, Kreilach?) or playing out wide.

Ruiz (Starter level?): showed himself as a starter last season, but can he replicate? Will Everton have something to say about this?

Kreilach (Starter level): clear starter, most dependable player on this roster. Biggest question is where on the pitch will he line up?

Toia (Borderline): generally a strong defender, but offers few positives in the attack

Glad (Starter level): clear starter

Silva (Borderline): has been a starter – and done well in that role – but was very shaky last season

Herrera (Starter level): one of top young outside backs in league. Assuming he sticks around, he’s a lock for this role. If not, we’ll see how good Brody can be.

Putna (Borderline): struggled in the bubble early on last year, but was fairly solid for much of the rest of the campaign. MacMath and Ochoa will both be waiting in the wings and some would argue might be an upgrade anyway.

Overall: Question marks in attack with some new faces, but probably much better collectively than a year ago. Beyond that, upgrades needed on backline at CB, LB and for depth. Any questions about GK, likely will resolve themselves through course of season with Ochoa and MacMath available. Tactical footprint is also a concern.

 

Eh, I think 40pts is comfortably outside the playoff line and that the league has moved more and more away from 45 being the cutoff line it used to be. Some perspective on that:
2019: playoff line was 48, 40pts was good enough for 10/11th
2018: playoff line was 49, 40pts was good enough for 9th
2017: playoff line was 45, 40pts was good enough for 8th

The move to play almost the entire season against your own conference complicates this, though. If there are some clear top teams, and the rest middling, it could lower that marker. It also makes pretty much every game a "6 pointer" of sorts. I think, due to the congested schedule, RSL benefits from home games but that we're awful on the road (see the third and fourth segment slumps)

I'm not completely opposed to any of your ratings, but stating "clear starter" for some is absolutely true of a bottom playoff team, but not true of a competitive team. The opposite is true of a cellar dweller team. Your overall rating doesn't account for Freddy and his clear struggles as a coach. I think that he again makes a team play less than the sum of its parts

 

I think there is a bit of an asterisk on your Western conference data from 2017 - 2019. That's a period that saw most of the power in the west. The line in the east during that period was around 42 pts. Last season we saw what could be the beginnings of a shift in power to the east. We'll have to see if that continues this season. If you average the two conferences, the playoff line still remains at roughly that historical 45 mark, but it can vary year-by-year and among the two conferences.

I feel that the genuine MLS starter level players that I've listed are pretty solid starters across the league, with maybe the exception of Rusnak, although he clearly has the talent. Actually think he could thrive in a different system. Glad, Herrera, and Dami could start for most teams across the league. Herrera is arguably a top 5 right back in the league. Many teams have 1 CB better than Glad, but few have two. Dami has so many intangibles, is versatile, is a captain on the field, and makes big plays at big moments. Which of those do you disagree with?

I do agree - Freddy issues are perhaps the BIGGEST question mark for this team. I don't have a tremendous amount of faith. However, last year was his first year as permanent head coach, and it was a bizarre year to try to put his stamp on the club - not just with covid, but with the turmoil around the club. Maybe a true offseason, some minor roster tweaks, and ability to put in "his system" will show a different side to him as coach. I hope that's the case, but not gonna hold my breath.

 

Good point on the 17-19 years being "West heavy" if you will. However, I think the biggest thing this year compared to any others is just how little cross conference play their will be. I don't pretend to know how that will shake things out. You could end up seeing a conference where a small group of teams just dominate, but because of the playoff line being so low that the last spot is up for grabs. You could also see that some teams, like RSL under Petke, heavily relied on out of conference games to obtain their points and will get ran off the field. Mostly, though, every game is competition for points towards the playoffs. I just don't hold strong belief that this team is better than many others in the conference, if any.

As for the players, going through the full list:
Rubin: Not a clue on this guy, but that he was in USL last year and had just a hot hand for a bit is hopeful, but I wouldn't count on him at all. Sub level is generous. he honestly should be a guy in the 18-25 range of the roster, if not lower.

Meram: The old days of RSL would love this kind of signing. Decent player that was great at one point in the league (Columbus) but then fell away and has been rated lower and lower. The hard part with Meram, for me, is just how sporadic his play can be. He shouldn't be counted on to start games. Most other MLS teams didn't want to take a waiver on him

Julio: Yeah, this guy is showing signs of being good, but the jury is out. I think he'd be a bench player for most anyone else given the spotty record in the league. We look to be counting him as a starter.

Rusnak: You nailed it in that, in another system (especially one that valued midfield play) he'd be a starter. This accentuates the problem of the roster construction vs tactical approach.

Ruiz: you rightly put a question mark next to. I have hope he'll continue his form, but a sophomore slump would be understandable and should probably be expected. For now, I'd be comfortable saying he'd start on more MLS teams that he wouldn't.

Kreilach: clear starter in the league? Yes. Another Rusnak scenario where we use him in a way that doesn't play to all of his strengths? Also yes

Toia: The guy got cut from an Orlando team that was the worst defense in league history, if I remember right. I don't think there was any sort of sweepstakes to pick him up and I don't think anyone is calling Fall to see if they can make a trade for him. The hard thing in MLS is you have to have guys like this on your roster, sometimes even as starters, I get that. But with how Freddy wants to use his outside backs this is a clear deficiency.

Glad: Someone should let Freddy know he's a starter. I'm honestly still shocked Glad is an RSL player and signed that last contract. With how he has been shafted at the end of the season over the past few years I'd have thought he would walk away from the club.

Silva: Borderline is generous. Any playoff contending team wouldn't put up with his consistent mistakes and reckless play. His salary also can't be ignored. At that pay, you'd expect a top of the league CB, not someone you're wondering if should start ahead of Erik Holt.

Herrera: Best player on the team, for my money, given the age and upside to his game. If the club is smart, 2021 is a season where they showcase his abilities and cash out.

Putna: Name an MLS western conference team he'd comfortably walk into the starting spot on. ATX passed on him, cRapids: no, FCD: no, HOU: maybe?, LAG: no, LAFC: no, MINN: no, POR: no, SJ: maybe?, SEA: no, KC: no, Van: maybe> In a generous number, Putna is 10th best in the Western Conference. Does that technically make him a starter? I guess, but it just baffles me that the team won't just go with Ochoa. I'm not sure if Ochoa jumps ahead of many other MLS teams, but his pedigree seems to be valued a lot more outside the club, for some strange reason.

 

So, we're scheduled to play Phoenix today. But Phoenix didn't play against Seattle over the weekend due to "covid concerns". So... The game isn't going to be streamed, we won't know whats happening. The team website has an article up about the game happening that was published yesterday, so I guess we're doing this.

 

@15 to 32 I think we're pretty in sync with starting caliber players on this squad. There are only a few sure bets, and a few "wait to sees" along with a number of clearly not starter material players that are projected in our starting XI. All of this leads to RSL being a few players away (not 1 or 2) from being a competitive team barring some pretty exceptional emergence among youngsters and new additions to the team.

 

So RSL Show had Dunny on. A couple interesting things in there. Mostly that Dunny is of the belief that this team isn't far off from being competitive. He uses the 2-3 players number. I don't agree, at least not 2-3 players from being title contenders. The comparison to Columbus isn't accurate, either. Lots of the roster construction for the Crew, when you look back, is stronger than what we have. I'd also point out that they had a style under the coaches that made sense. in fact, most importantly, the Crew went from Berhalter to Porter as coaches. Say what you will about those two, they're both comfortably above Petke and Juarez

One point that came up that really took me by surprise was the talk of Zachary Farnsworth being a CB candidate for the first team. As of now, Farnsworth is a Monarchs player. Dunny was talking like he was on the first team and will step in ahead of Holt. Am I missing something?

 

I thought he was headed to Clemson. Did that change?

 

It’s better than what was allowed last year.

 

I got an email as a season ticket holder about that. The curious part is that it doesn't state anything about how those 10k seats will be allocated. At one point in this club's history, the rumored number of STH's was around 13-14k, has that changed?

Also, my seats with food don't come with food. I didn't expect that they would, that sounds like a logistical nightmare, however, the proposed solution in the email is to move my seat to a different (north end) part of the stadium. I'm not sure I understand why.

 

After the debacle of last season, and a general decline since 2013 in the on field product, I'd be very interested in where the STH count stands. My guess is it's comfortably under 10K, but I have nothing specific to base that on.

I know that at a peak, the STH count was really close to 15K, but I don't think it ever quite got there. If you remember, there was talk of a waiting list as they wanted to cap the STH number well shy of capacity for some reason. I'm thinking that was probably 2011-ish.

 

Speaking of food at the stadium - the announcement of 10k people in the stands came with the caveat that eating in your seats won't be allowed. Instead, there will be designated areas throughout the stadium to eat but remain distanced. Am I crazy, or does that sound like an impossibility? Are they going to have queues to get into the eating area? won't that defeat the whole purpose?

 

It's going to be tough. I never count on eating at the games anyway (unless I use my Dad's super-fancy seats), and a 7:30pm start should be late enough for most everyone to eat beforehand. Beer though.... I guess I can make it through a game without one.

I'm thinking of catching the May 15th game against San Jose solo. I'll be fully vaxxed by then. No way I'm bringing the kids though.

 

Didn't the stadium implement mobile ordering a few years ago? I wonder if they require mobile orders only and message you when it's ready. That's how Disney World has handled dining in the park.

 

I replied to the STH email and said I'd attend the May 7 and May 15 games. Worked in my favor as the May 1 game was going to be impossible to attend with it being at noon and then the 29 is over Memorial Day weekend

 

According to the team site we won last night's scrimmage with Phoenix 1-0. That's two clean sheets in a row, which is impressive no matter when/where you're playing. So kudos on that to the team. Based on the highlight video, it looked like one way traffic. Though, I doubt we're going to be putting together clips of Phoenix playing well unless they resulted in a goal or good defensive play.

A couple interesting things reading through the game report:

• Zack Farnsworth is with the team for preseason. I don't know if that impacts his eligibility with Clemson. I don't know if he is still committed to Clemson. All that said, he had to leave the game in the 7th minute for an injury. That sucks
• While the last game looked like a full first team of available players, this looked a full reserve side with the international players (Glad, Herrera, Rusnak, and Dougy) all plugged in. Though, the name you'll notice excluded there is Ochoa. Putna was in goal for this one, again.
• Building on that, whoever starts against LAG is probably the starter on day 1 of the season barring injuries or something crazy happening in training over the next few weeks. As of now, no reason to think it won't be Putna.
• Jeizon Ramirez sighting! and not just a late game cameo, he actually started and played 79 minutes. He had a few good moments in the highlight clip, no idea on overall performance, obviously.
• Milan Iloski got 29 minutes as a sub in this game. Not sure if he knew what to do with all that time available to him. Serious note on that: good on Freddy for making all of his subs before the 80'
• Looking through the full roster and who has played over these 2 games, the following players havent seen minutes: Jeff Dewsnup (GK), Brett Halsey (MF/DF), Zac MacMath (GK), David Ochoa (GK), and Tate Schmitt (DF?). The GK's are explainable, but not fully understandable. The concerning players are Halsey and Schmitt.
• The last game of preseason is Saturday against the Galaxy. Then we have a rest until April 24 given the first week bye. Curious to see how the two teams go about that game Does RSL go all for it with the international guys on short rest? Is it a mixed game? How serious do the Galaxy take it?
• This preseason, thus far, has given signs of hope for the team to not be terrible. If we can keep another clean sheet against the Galaxy I'll be especially impressed. Expectations for the team are still incredibly low, for me, but this was encouraging so far.