https://politicalwire.com/2020/02/26/another-house-republican-will-retire/ Ralph Abraham (R-LA). They're not retiring because they hate the $178k/year and lifetime benefits.
He would be reelected easily if he ran. He ran unsuccessfully for governor last year - I guess he wants to do something different, or else he was just keeping his promise to only serve 6 years. Now he can just concentrate on selling oxycontin in his pharmacies. But not a potential pickup for dems, by any stretch of the imagination.
Of the retiring Republicans, if you had to put them on 2 camps. 1. Very Pro Trump 2. unwillingly pro trump. Which category would be bigger? It could be that they are reading the future in 2 ways, one Democrats keep the house for a while, so why even stay. Or two, even if the GOP wins back the house, it will be on the back of Trumper republicans, so if you are not a Trump favorite, you will not get much power in a future GOP congress.
BTW here is an article from 2017 about Obama and the loss of down ballot democratic office holders. I find this part interesting. So they were right about 2018, Trump is still underwater in 2020, so unless the Democrats fvck it up (we should expect we will), 2020 could be a good year for the democratic party, as good as 2010 was for republicans. https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/1/10/14211994/obama-democrats-downballot
This is interesting. Not only as it relates to 2020, but also: Carter (80), Clinton (00), Obama (10). In three of the last 4 decennial periods, Dems have been defending field position at the top. 80 ushered in Reagan Reupblicanism. 00 the death rattle of Southern Blue Dog Dems and Bush II. 10 massive GOP congressional and state level consolidation.
Not good news for Jones in Alabama. Roy Moore will not make the run off. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive.../results-alabama-senate-primary-election.html
Democratic primary in NC, Cal Cunningham seems to be about to win the nomination. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...s-north-carolina-senate-primary-election.html
I don't think it's crazy. His opponent will either be Trump foil Jeff Sessions, or former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville. I can imagine massive AA turnout and enough suburban votes for him to pull through.
I was just about to post this. The Dems' chances of getting to 50 just shot up. They have to knock out 3 incumbents if Jones hangs on in Alabama, or 4 incumbents otherwise. It's easy to pick 4 now...Gardner in Colorado, Collins, McSally, Daines, and Tillis. The Dems need to win 4 of the 6 races I named. Very doable.
Gardner and McSally are most definitely gone. Can't see them surviving this. Collins is in great danger as well.
Welp.. Jones’s chances are improving. Trump is trolling Sessions after Sessions failed to win the Republican primary outright. https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/04/politics/jeff-sessions-donald-trump-alabama-senate/index.html
I still don't believe Jones winning, and will not on the day before the election. Gardner is out for sure, McSally and Collins likely, Tillis is 50/50, and we will see about Daines. Very close this is.
That is great......Susan Collins can stay concerned. Our new polls in Maine and Arizona find Sara Gideon leading Susan Collins 47-43 and Mark Kelly leading Martha McSally 47-42.That now means our most recent polls in 4 GOP held Senate seats have found at least a 4 point Democratic lead:https://t.co/6eLUqIjVNO— PublicPolicyPolling (@ppppolls) March 5, 2020
Susan should be very concerned now.....With Biden running ahead of the Douchebag by 10 points, the coattails are going to be hard to contain! NEW POLL: Democrat Sara Gideon leads GOP incumbent Susan Collins by 4 points in Maine Senate race https://t.co/RcVhOjoEG6 pic.twitter.com/RjWAMs2DpU— The Hill (@thehill) March 5, 2020
That's awfully generous of you. Personally, I'm just concerned about her reelection prospects. I might furrow my brow in a few months, but we'll see.