PBP: 2020 House and Senate Elections (Maybe even State level)

Discussion in 'Elections' started by ceezmad, May 16, 2019.

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Will Congress stay divided after the 2020 election

Poll closed Nov 6, 2020.
  1. Yes, different parties will control each chamber.

    17 vote(s)
    45.9%
  2. No, Republicans will keep the Senate and retake the House of Reps.

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  3. No, Democrats will keep the House of Reps and retake the Senate.

    18 vote(s)
    48.6%
  4. No, a great 3rd party take over of Congrees will happen.

    2 vote(s)
    5.4%
  1. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Ok, since the other 2020 Thread is going to be full of Presidential information How about one that hopefully will keep Presidential Primary and Presidential election talk to a minimum.


    So do Republicans re-take the House of Representatives?

    Do Democrats take back the Senate?

    Do Republicans continue their dominance at State level government?
     
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  2. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  3. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #3 ceezmad, May 16, 2019
    Last edited: May 16, 2019

    Attached Files:

  4. Yoshou

    Yoshou Moderator
    Staff Member

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
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  5. charlie15

    charlie15 Member+

    Mar 9, 2000
    Bethesda, Md
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Can't wait to see my neighboring state, the Commonwealth turn Blue! That has been a few years in the making. Perfect example of how a very good/ improved education system and successful migration/ immigration can pull a state forward.
     
  6. charlie15

    charlie15 Member+

    Mar 9, 2000
    Bethesda, Md
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    WOW....Good ol' Roy is BACK!!!





    Really?? :rolleyes:
     
  7. song219

    song219 BigSoccer Supporter

    Apr 5, 2004
    La Norte
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Vanuatu
    You didn't expect him to say, more personal contact with teenaged girls?
     
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  8. American Brummie

    Jun 19, 2009
    There Be Dragons Here
    Club:
    Birmingham City FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Color me optimistic but I think Democrats win the Senate by holding Alabama, picking off Maine, Colorado, Arizona, and either Iowa or North Carolina.
     
  9. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    VB, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    AB, they don't have to do all of those things, right? They can miss on one.
     
  10. American Brummie

    Jun 19, 2009
    There Be Dragons Here
    Club:
    Birmingham City FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    You're assuming Democrats win back the White House, I am not. You want to guarantee a majority in the Senate, you need 51 votes. And even if we do win, you'll have some people like Manchin or Doug Jones who - in order to hold their seats - vote occasionally with Republicans, so to pass liberal legislation you need at least 51 to avoid forcing them into no-win scenarios, or giving one of them the opportunity to vote "no" without tanking the bill.
     
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  11. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    If Sanders or Warren win, they have to give up their Senate seats.

    Any Governor races in their states that may put a republican in charge of picking a temporary replacement?
     
  12. SetPeace

    SetPeace Member+

    Jun 22, 2004
    SC Illinois
    Club:
    Torquay United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Massachusetts has a Democratic governor. Vermont's is a Republican, but he's considered a moderate, rare as that is in either party nowadays.
     
  13. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    VB, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  14. Dr. Wankler

    Dr. Wankler Member+

    May 2, 2001
    The Electric City
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    If I could hack into the sound system at a politician's rally to change the music they play, Roy Moore would take the stage to this classic...

     
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  15. Yoshou

    Yoshou Moderator
    Staff Member

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I really hope that was “accidental” and whomever came up with that headline should get a raise. ;)
     
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  16. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #16 EvanJ, Jun 29, 2019
    Last edited: Jun 29, 2019
    If the Democrats gain the president, they need to gain 3 seats. IMO Colorado is the Democrats easiest gain. Maine leans Democratic and now has a Democratic governor, both House members as Democrats, and the other senator an Independent who caucuses with Democrats. However, Susan Collins got 68.5 percent last time. Martha McSally surprising lost and was appointed to the other Senate seat, and Arizona now has a 5-4 Democratic majority in the House. However, Republican governor Doug Ducey was easily re-elected. The Democrats gained 2 House seats in Iowa to take a 3-1 majority, but Republican governor Kim Reynolds was re-elected. The Republicans House majority in North Carolina went from 10-3 to 8-3 pending two special elections in September. District 3 had Republican Walter Jones Jr. die of ALS, and District 9 has a do-over after the Republican who had more votes worked with somebody who was charged with crimes involving absentee ballots. He decided not to run again. In Congress, it takes two-thirds to override a veto, but the North Carolina legislature only requires 60 percent. The Republicans had over 60 percent in both house and were overriding the vetoes by Democratic governor Roy Cooper. The Democrats gained seats so the Republicans have a majority but not 60 percent.

    Do the Democrats have a chance for senator from Kansas? It may sound impossible, but consider this:

    1. They elected a Democratic governor.
    2. The Democrats gained went from none to one of four House seats, and one Republican won a close election.
    3. For the four House districts combined, Republicans won by 9.4 percent. In 2000, 2012, and 2016, Republican presidential candidates won Kansas by over 20 percent while losing the popular vote.
    4. Senator Pat Roberts is retiring, so the Democrats don't need to defeat an incumbent. I doubt Jeff Flake expected the Republicans to lose his seat when he retired.

    According to Wikipedia, these senators are retiring (X) or have not announced if they will run again (?):

    1. Alaska: Dan Sullivan (R- ?)
    2. Idaho: Jim Risch (R- ?)
    3. Kansas: Pat Roberts (R- X)
    4. Maine: Susan Collins (R- ?)
    5. Mississippi: Cindy Hyde-Smith (R- ?)
    6. Nebraska: Ben Sasse (R- ?)
    7. New Jersey: Cory Booker (D- ?, probably will drop out of the presidential race by next summer)
    8. New Mexico: Tom Udall (D- X)
    9. Oklahome: Jim Inhofe (R- ?)
    10. Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R- X)
    11. Virginia: Mark Warner (D- ?)
    12. Wyoming: Mike Enzi (R- X)

    Wikipedia used to list 13 of those senators, so one of them must have recently announced he or she is running again, but I don't know who.
     
  17. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  18. charlie15

    charlie15 Member+

    Mar 9, 2000
    Bethesda, Md
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  19. American Brummie

    Jun 19, 2009
    There Be Dragons Here
    Club:
    Birmingham City FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    https://politicalwire.com/2019/07/24/paul-mitchell-wont-run-again/

    Paul Mitchell (R+13, Michigan) isn't running for re-election. He is a second-term MoC who would be guaranteed to win re-election.

    He says it's because politics are toxic and he has a 9-year old son.

    Translation: he's not gonna get to be a committee chair anytime soon.
     
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  20. soccernutter

    soccernutter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Aug 22, 2001
    Don't drink beer but like cheese
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
     
  21. charlie15

    charlie15 Member+

    Mar 9, 2000
    Bethesda, Md
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Do us a favor Susan, go away!

    Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) “isn’t used to seeing her popularity under water in her home state, but that’s where the Maine Republican finds herself as she decides whether to run for a fifth term next year,” Bloomberg reports.
    “Collins says she’s focused on preparing for a re-election bid but won’t decide until the early fall whether she’ll run.”
    Said Collins: “The divisiveness of our country and the unceasing attacks by dark money groups in Maine have clearly had an impact.”
     
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  22. charlie15

    charlie15 Member+

    Mar 9, 2000
    Bethesda, Md
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Well....the Republican will have to get an other candidate!

    A pro-Trump Republican candidate for Congress who is aiming to unseat Ilhan Omar in Minnesota has been charged with a felony after allegedly stealing from stores,” the Guardian reports.
    “Danielle Stella was arrested twice this year in Minneapolis suburbs over allegations that she shoplifted items worth more than $2,300 from a Target and goods valued at $40 from a grocery store.”
     
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  23. American Brummie

    Jun 19, 2009
    There Be Dragons Here
    Club:
    Birmingham City FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    charlie15 repped this.
  24. Chicago76

    Chicago76 Member+

    Jun 9, 2002
    This. If they can't unseat Collins, Dems have almost zero chance of taking the Senate. One seat that I'm surprised has not been mentioned: Tillis in NC. The guy is not popular. Trump is supporting him but the NC GOP is going after him. After ME and CO, that seat could be the third most vulnerable.

    For Dems to take the Senate, they'd need ME and CO + at least 1 (and probably 2) of NC/GA/IA/AZ with GA probably being the most difficult to flip from that final group of 4.

    Some of this depends upon the electoral strategy for the Presidential election too. They could really hammer Trump in the Midwest, but that would only flip one Senate seat. If they operate with a bigger map, that opens up NC, GA and AZ more.
     
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  25. JohnR

    JohnR Member+

    Jun 23, 2000
    Chicago, IL
    You guys factored in Alabama retaking Doug Jones' seat, right? That was a one-off.
     
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