Interesting article (based on a quick skim, anyway) https://unherd.com/2020/09/how-russia-stokes-americas-racial-tension/ As the battle for America’s soul threatens to rip the country apart ahead of November’s election, race has become one of the key partisan battlegrounds. This is being exploited with devastating precision by the Russians — who’ve been refining their methods for years. As Special Counsel Robert Mueller found in his investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 US election, the Kremlin started laying the groundwork in 2013 — well before Donald Trump had even announced his candidacy. That year, it set up the Internet Research Agency (IRA) — a unique mash-up between a digital marketing and intelligence agency, whose task was to experiment with social media to fuel polarisation in American society. Race was one of the most fertile battlegrounds. In mid-2014, IRA agents travelled to the United States in an “intelligence gathering mission” in order “to obtain information and photographs for use in their social media posts”. Then, from their base in St Petersburg, they built fake pages, communities and personas that looked authentically American. These included ostensibly Left-wing groups like ‘Black Matters’, which targeted black Americans by appearing close to ‘Black Lives Matter’. This disinformation project was known as ‘Operation Lakhta’. Paid ads publicising the group went straight for the jugular: this one features photos of three young black Americans — Michael Brown, Tamir Rice and Freddie Gray — who were killed either in police shootings or custody. Rice was only 12. He had allegedly been shot on sight for playing with a toy gun. Once they had ensnared followers, and as the election grew closer, groups like ‘Black Matters’ became a vehicle for the IRA’s attempts to suppress the black Democrat Vote. Agents posted emotive narratives of political alienation, suggesting that Hillary Clinton did ‘not care for Blacks’, or that a race between Trump and Clinton was ‘one that Black people should sit out’. And of course, this is just a social media version of an old-media approach used by the Kremlin back in the cold war days to spread the story that, "the AIDS virus had been invented by the US military as a biological weapon to kill black Americans," as the article says in the first paragraphy.
It's up there with sexually assaulting dozens of women and putting kids in cages...it's so hard to know now. Oh wait, I remember what his worst scandal was: that time he let 200,000 Americans die by downplaying coronavirus.
I guess the trouble is so much of this stuff is priced in now The tax scandal does present a great opportunity for Biden to hit him on his supposed business credentials. He isn't working for America.
For some reason, that portion of Michelle Obama speech at the Convention came to mind "“If you think things cannot possibly get worse, trust me, they can,”. I don't think it was particularly prescient but still it is so f**** true! This is shitshow on top of a cluster********!
That is pretty funny......Is it a coming out of the closet moment? Eric Trump: "The LGBT community, they are incredible. And you should see how they come out in full force for my father every single day. I'm part of that community, and we love the man." pic.twitter.com/hl51ftW8l2— Bobby Lewis (@revrrlewis) September 29, 2020
Oh dude - Julia was way ahead of the curve Good night. Tomorrow will be worse.— Julia Ioffe (@juliaioffe) July 8, 2016
I don't think he is either, he is just dumb like a shoe. If he was I am sure the community would revoke his membership card as well...lol
I am so there for this analysis The last 3 months of the '16 campaign - basically the Bannon era, was when Trump was somewhat focussed on his populist message 4) In 2016 Steve Bannon performed the same role that Mark Burnett did in producing "The Apprentice." Both created a fictional Trump that he milked for years while the managerial disasters piled up.This time we are the losers. But his bill is coming due:https://t.co/cLqZaY9qzN pic.twitter.com/DHn2eUOTeC— Greg Sargent (@GregTSargent) September 29, 2020
If the polling averages in PA are all 6 points plus for Biden on November 3, and PA still represents the tipping point state, I might be able to keep the anxiety in check.
He is in a world of hurt in Pa. He can't win Pa with those margins in the Philly suburbs! Aaron Blake notes that the Democratic candidate has carried the Philadelphia suburbs by between 7 and 17 points in every presidential race since 2004. Trump’s deficit there in the new New York Times-Siena poll is 24 points and in the new Washington Post-ABC News poll is 38 points.
This wasn't really up for debate among any serious people, but Trump made overtures about New Jersey early in the campaign. Those margins stretching into South Jersey means that he's probably going to lose the state by even more than the 14 he lost it by in 2016. It also means that Jeff Van Drew, that oily turncoat Congressman, is in deep shit. Let me get my teeny tiny violin to play for that guy as he slumps out of Washington.
So as we get into the first debate, the drama I see in this race isn't whether or not Biden will win, it's whether or not it'll be a blowout. Obama racked up 365 and 8 in 08, and I think that sets the standard of a blowout. 2012 was an easy win, while 16 a close win. Right now, Biden is likely between 2012 and 2008.
Looking more and more like a blowout... GEORGIABiden 50% (+3)Trump 47%.#GAsen:Ossoff (D) 49% (+1)Perdue (R-inc) 48%@QuinnipiacPoll, LV, 9/23-27https://t.co/T6wmSEbxXO— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) September 29, 2020 "Ninety-seven percent of likely voters who selected a candidate in the presidential match up say their minds are made up, and 2 percent say they may change their minds."
Quinnipiac has been pretty dem friendly with their polling this year, so I'd take that with a bit of a grain of salt. I think that's a toss up. More interestingly, it had Ossoff with a 1 point lead, and with better personal numbers than Perdue. In the other race, Warnock actually has the lead over Loeffler, but it's a jungle primary, and so long as the other two Dems remain (one of which is Joe Libermann's kid, because of course he is), Warnock won't win on Election night, and it's unlikely he'll win in the runoff, after the Presidential election, and with Biden's coattails gone.
All of this is relatively correct. However it's worth noting the trendlines, and as per 538 this puts Biden up at 39% to win Georgia and Ossoff at 26% to win that seat, which is the highest either's been since June. In other words the cascade of scandals coming out of Trumpland are starting to take their toll. As for Warnock doing the post-jungle primary run-off... neither Collins nor Loeffler are well-loved in Georgia. There is a decent chance that they will suffer from not having Trump's coattails, rather than Warnock not having Biden's.
I was listening to Warnock this morning on " The new Abnormal " podcast. He was really good. He will be a fine senator. If he finish first in the jungle, I will give him a good chance to win in January. The way the base is fired up, I will be surprised if they sit the run off.
Yep, specially if Trump takes a (likely) beating. The Magats will be deflated! The scandals are definitely taking a tool. In the last ABC/WaPo poll in Pa, 8% of 2016 Trump voters are switching to Biden. A statistically insignificant 1% of 2016 HRC voters are moving to Trump.