It’s time for another 2020 election thread and after a seemingly interminable amount of time, I think we can all agree it’s time for this election to be over.
Right on cue, the latest Morning Consult poll. Polling Avgs:Arizona: Biden +7Colorado: Biden +13Florida: Biden +3Georgia: Biden +1Michigan: Biden +10Minnesota: Biden +3North Carolina: TieOhio: Trump +3Pennsylvania: Biden +7Texas: Biden +2Virginia: Biden +10Wisconsin Biden +7Morning Consult / July 26 / Online pic.twitter.com/foIxUhvfaI— Polling USA (@USA_Polling) July 28, 2020
Minnesota, WTF! Team Trump is relying on an October Surprise related to a vaccine announcement. I'm not sure I see the logic there. It would be a viable hail mary strategy if the Trump Administration had been any kind of leader in vaccine development, but we all know it's the opposite. It might work on ultra-low information voters, but that's Trump's base anyway. To me, it sounds more like how those in the bunker in Berlin thought that Roosevelt's death would turn the tide; they believed that the Americans would change sides and join Germany in fighting the Communists. Of course, by that point, soldiers had liberated several concentration camps and death camps and there was no chance in hell.
Not just a presidential election! Donate to NC State Legislature candidates to flip the state house & senate. Best place to spend money now, b/c if we break the NC gerrymander and end voter suppression, the state goes blue. And if NC goes blue, it changes the entire playing field for the electoral college for a decade at least. https://secure.actblue.com/donate/bluewavenc2020 We need to turn this election into not just a win at the top, but a tsunami that rips the GOP out at their roots, every office down to dog catcher. If we change state houses, we change the country.
Just saw a poll with Biden +32 in Massachusetts, not sure that poll needed to be done (especially since it didn't cover the Senate primary).
It wouldn't surprise me if, in some areas, it was like the old saying about labour vote in places in the north east. They didn't bother counting the votes... they weighed them.
Sent in my mail in ballot yesterday. Straight Dem and will be for the rest of my life. Major lol at seeing John James on the MI Senate ballot again. Dude is nothing more than a wannabe GI Joe who lost soundly.
Bigly white, same as Ohio, Wisconsin, and Iowa. All states that are drifting redder, as GOP vs. Dem becomes more and more defined by white nationalism vs. not. I wouldn't be surprised to see all of the above as being GOP states in 12 years, with Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina becoming blue, as Virginia and Colorado did.
There has been studies saying the midwest is gonna be red and with more Northeast people moving to NC Georgia Florida and Texas. The left will gain that in the trade.
This is why I am planning on getting out of the midwest ASAP and going back west. The first republican who can disassociate from being an obvious racist is going to receive a ton of "center blue" votes out here.
I was led to believe that Biden had a "massive lead" in Fl. +3 sounds like its within the MOE. Also, I agree: WTF, Minnesota?
I don't know, the Minnesota numbers from Morning Consult feel like an outlier, especially since its the only state that trended Trump on the whole list. I would also say long term it's a bigger challenge for Republicans than some similar states. While it is a very white state it ranks much higher in educational attainment (11th highest percentage with University degree) than Wisconsin, Ohio and Iowa.(27, 37, 36).
The average of the past 5 Florida polls is +7 Biden. Although that tweet says "Polling Averages," it appears to be the result of a single Morning Consult poll. \
I will not be that decisive because there is always the possibility that: 1 - The Dems end up nominating somebody who is like Roy Moore; 2 - The Dems could become more GOP-like and the GOP could become more Dem-like. I know the latter is unlikely in my lifetime, but the history of political parties shows that they shift their platforms to get power. Hell, as late at 1960, Blacks were voting Republican to 30% or more. With that said, I can't see me ever voting not-Democrat. Also, speaking of this, I was talking to my mom about how her parents voted (my grandparents). They were northern Republicans from before time, and their vote Republican continued when they moved south, which is odd, specially for my grandfather and the way he treated people. But mom said that in 2000, they openly voiced that they were voting for Gore, but when it came to the actual vote, they went back to tradition. That surprised me.
Just for context on the MC numbers compared to May (since I mentioned in my previous post how Minnesota was a trend outlier):
Look at my post on the previous page. I looked at RealClearPolitics. I think their info is better than the info Charlie just posted. So, to me, Florida is Biden. I didn't dig into the undecideds, but in Florida I can't imagine there are many, and probably a lower percentage than the MOE.