2020 Challenge Cup quarterfinals

The games finally have meaning. I really hope the quality jumps at least as much as the importance.

 

That was back to practice/getting back into shape games. This is now the champions league of NA.

 

I know it is probably obvious to most but what is "champions league of NA.?"

 

I would have wished for different pairings, but group stage shaped them up this way. Oh, well.

It's just a shame that some quarter final have teams that I would have liked to advance both, while some other have teams that I wouldn't have minded missing...

 

To me the pairings are fine because we really have no idea what the teams are going to do now that the matches matter.
It is possible that NC has shown the best they have and will flame out quickly when faced with matches that matter.
It is also possible that teams that have looked mostly poor through the warm up will suddenly blosume.
We learned very little during the warm up phase as there was a lot of experimenting and testing of unknown players.

The real matches start and the earlier games mean very little except as to what the coaches learned about their players and which players were injured and how badly.

One thing I am pretty sure of is that Pat Riley will not be out-coached so other coaches will really need to step up their games to raise to his level.

 

Well, for instance to me Houston Dash or Utah Royals don't seem to belong to the top 4 in the league, from what we've seen so far. There was a 4 teams tie in the rankings that needed tie-breakers to be solved, but I don't think that what came out of that clearly shaped the top 4 in the league as the group stage rankings were supposed to do for the sake of quarter-finals bracket.

By the way: had the final placement of Sky Blue FC and Chicago Red Stars to be decided through disciplinary record? If I am not wrong they had the exact same goal difference and goal scored and they hadn't clashed against each other during the tournament: was it a question of a Zerboni's YC or such?

 

Yes, it was decided by disciplinary record, and it's not just Zerboni: Sky Blue had FOUR YC's to Chicago's one.

 

Laughter aside, I believe that the POR quarterfinal will be the toughest game of the next three for NC. They have already played each other, and POR is like a wounded animal right now- I see that game as the one where the rub of the green could favor the Thorns and allow them to prevail . IF NC gets past POR, then the semi will be vs. either HOU or UTA who have not played against NC yet, so NC will likely prevail because of their culture, talent and appetite for a new challenge. IF NC gets to the final, it will likely be a rematch with a team they have already played (RGN has at best a 1/4 chance of making the final). Because it would be a cup final, the "already played" angle would not apply. The only teams that have beat NC in a cup final since 2016 are POR and Lyon.

 

Aaron Hegenberger on Twitter has named his best XI team for the preliminary games. I think he has it right -- although I haven't seen Ertz do much of anything, but maybe I just haven't noticed.

GK: Bixby
D: Barnes, Erceg, Ertz
MF: Sanchez, Debinha, Vero, Groom
F: Daly, Williams, Hatch.

I said earlier that I hadn't been overly impressed with any rookies -- but I forgot to mention that Bixby and Sanchez had been good.

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/nwsl-challenge-cup/
As of today, 538 projects that every game is at least a moderate toss-up, with even NCC only having a 2/3 chance of advancing to the SFs. (NCC has a 1/3 chance of winning the final, as of the beginning of the QFs.) Current SFs lineup would be NCC-UTA and CHI-WAS, though each of those only has about a 25-35% chance of being realized. Parity!

 

This makes our own predictions thread even more interesting.

 

I have faith in 538's political prognostications -- but not so much faith in its soccer prognostications.

538 gives NC only a 32 percent probability of winning the tournament. I believe that underestimates NC's dominance. I would give the Courage a 50 percent or better probability of winning the tournament.

 

Agreed, it will take a lot of effort and maybe luck to derail the Courage machine. They seem to be much sharper than the other teams. Portland would need to be really clinical to beat them in the quarter-finals and we know what happened so far.

 

Very dramatic, anything can happen, don't fold em before the hand is dealt.

 

Not having Yuki and Morgan does hurt CRS to some extent. Hope they recover quickly. I was letting my worst case mind wander a bit thinking CRS was gonna trade Yuki after the tournament and thus not play her to avoid an injury. It was kind of odd she did not play vs. UT. I sure hope I am wrong - don't want to lose her!

 

Bella Bixby is the only player to help keep Portland in the game.

 

And she doesn't start, per NWSL website line-ups; Britt Eckerstrom at her place.

 

Portland's line-up is the best they can afford given their string of injuries (and it looks like Horan, who was given as "questionable" by the latest injury report, is anyway starting), but I wonder how can they sustain NCC's assault. Maybe my prediction of a draw was too much optimistic for this quite anemic version of the Thorns.

Anyway, looks like everything is ready for the game.

@Gilmoy, where are you?

 

[#1.NC-POR.#8]
Identical, except S.Mewis <=> O'Sullivan flip sides. Merrick keeps her RB spot!

1284152155235143681 is not a valid tweet id

Eckerstrom for Bixby; Menges for Westphal (and Reynolds => RB); Horan for Boureille; Lussi for Charley.

Our Starting XI vs. @TheNCCourage.#NWSLChallengeCup | #BAONPDX pic.twitter.com/ohehWrgii2

— Portland Thorns FC (@ThornsFC) July 17, 2020

North Carolina: Q Labbé (not starting); / OUT Mathias, A.Watt
Portland: Q Horan, Menges (starting); Bixby (not) / OUT Franch, Sauerbrunn, S.Smith