The 3rd round update for 2019 of my ever popular* league ELO rankings. *not at all true Some basic info, for those who want it: 1. These rankings use all USOC games since 1996 to determine the relative strengths of the leagues. The names used below just represent the current names of leagues at that level. In reality the leagues have changed around a lot, and accounting for that is difficult. D2/D3 before 2011 are their own beast. What is now USLC (which was D3 in 2011 and is now D2) and NASL (which is now defunct and joined the Cup in 2012 at the D2 level) started fresh. NASL has now died, what was PDL is now USL2, there's a brand new USL1 this year. It's a mess, I've tried my best, and I'll never be happy with it. 2. There are bound to be mistakes back in the history, but the beauty of ELO rankings is that they are self-correcting over time, so the "actual strengths" probably aren't too far off from this right now, even with errors in older competitions. 3. The actual results used are as follows: a. Game finishes in regulation with a result: goals scored b. Game finishes after extra time with a result: goals scored c. Game goes to penalty kicks: goals scored before the penalty kicks. The game is "recorded" as a tie. 4. A home team has its rating raised by 100, and the change in ratings for each of the teams is calculated based on the result of the game, and the relative difference between the two ratings. This means that currently, we would expect an NASL team hosting an MLS team to be slightly in favor of the MLS team, but not significantly so. 5. The average change in score for any individual game is about 7. This means that one league goes up by 7, and the other down by 7. 6. There is no way to account for the fact that many MLS teams play 'B' or 'C' sides in the first few rounds they participate. I can only base it on the teams fielded. 7. Dead leagues: D2 (pre-2011) - 1642, D3 (pre-2011) - 1560, NASL - 1582. These are only important in that ELO rankings are 0-sum, and those numbers can account for why the average of leagues today isn't 1500. RoundMLSUSLCUSL1USL2NPSLUSASA/etc 2018 Final173615531500134512991283 2019 R1173615531499134512841299 2019 R2173615681500133312831295 2019 R3173615561494133313041294 A nice upset by the NPSL's Orange County FC marks the majority of the change in this round. They are the only non-USLC team to advance onwards to the 4th round. This means that the NPSL is unlikely to finish much lower in rating than they are now, because they'll be a big underdog, even if they're playing at home. Given that the ratings right now are barely changed since the start of the tournament this year, I wouldn't expect much in the way of change once MLS teams come in either. The gap between MLS and USLC has been relatively stable the last few years, typically hanging out at just under 200 points, which is where it is now. You have to go back to the end of 2012 for the gap to be under 150 pts, and it only ended a year over 200 points once in that time. It's just really hard to pull much more than 200 points away from your nearest competitor without higher ratings above you, because you're expected to win, even when on the road.